HIGHLIGHTS

• MARKET TREND—Firmer:  CU, +$.0050; SU, +-$.0025; WU, +$.0675; KWU, +$.05
• MACRO:  Initial euphoria from the U.S./Mexico trade deal is tempered; Canada gives “mixed” views but says conversations have been constructive.  Asia—Mostly higher: Nikkei, +0.15%; Shanghai, -0.31%; Hang Seng, +0.23%.  EUROPE:  Mostly lower:  DAX, -0.04%; FTSE, -0.66%; CAC, +0.03%.  WALL STREET: Mixed: DOW, -7;S&P, +0.25; NAS, +11.25.  EXTERNALS: Oct crude: +$0.34 @ $68.87; Dec Gold: -$5.40 @ $1,209; Dec $ Index, +0.105 @ 94.315

·        T-storm Weather: A strong cool front triggers thunderstorms across the southeast two-thirds of the Corn Belt today, producing 1.00” to 2.00”+ in / near key areas of IA, MN, and WI, and 0.50” to 1.00” to the southeast.  Sharp cooling follows as maximums fall to the 60s-70s, but temperatures quickly turn much warmer from west to east Thursday-Friday, causing thunderstorm clusters to erupt Thursday and Friday nights in / near IA

·       CU, up $.0050 @ $3.4150; CZ, up $.0025 @ $3.5650.  Fund selling amounted to 17 Kon Tuesday          

• SU, up $.0025 @ $8.2075; SX, up $.0050 @ $8.3375.  Funds: sold 9 SB, 6 SBM, 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.51, 0, LY: $.94
• WU, up $.0675 @ $5.05; WZ, up $.05 @ $5.2825  The funds were even in yesterday’s trade           

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Consultant: Main concern for U.S. corn crop is rapid pace of grain fill.  The crop is 1-2 weeks ahead of normal & higher temps will continue to push development.  It’s possible grain filling will end before optimum kernel size is achieved

• ATI Research: Near-term bias on U.S. corn exports remains in a 40-50 mbu/week range; bias is toward the lower end
• ATI Research: On average, an additional 6% of U.S. corn reaches mature stage of development from Aug. 26-Sep. 2

·       Ethanol margins: $0.27 per gallon—up from $0.22 last week but below $0.47 last year.  EIA report at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather: With forecasted rain near-term, coverage of 14-day dryness will remain the lowest of last 8 growing seasons in late-August and early-September for U.S. soybean production (currently only including 9% of production)

·       Consultant: For U.S. soybeans, ample soil moisture will help seed size & allow some later set pods to fill out the seed

·       ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean exports are expected to average 25-30 mbu per week

·       Chicago Sep. 2018 wheat futures ended at $4.98 ¼ Tue.—first closing price below $5.00 for the contract since July 18

·       T-storm Weather: Severe drought continues for eastern Australia wheat; most areas drier than normal next 7-10 days

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLV18, +$0.34 @ $68.87; EBV, +$0.21 @ $76.16; EBV-QCLV, -$0.12; RBV, -0.0008; NGV, -.001; HOV, +.00836

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -1.0 (+0.04); Gasoline, +0.1 (+0.2); Distillates, +1.8 (+1.0).  Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 1.074 mbpd (range: 1.064-1.087).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 23.30 mb (range 23.0-23.559)

·       On Tuesday, cash ethanol markets were mostly lower: Chicago was quoted at $1.30125, down $0.00625; Basis to Chicago—New York, +$0.07875; Gulf, +$0.08375; Dallas, +$0.01875; Tampa, +$0.14875; and LA, +$0.20375

·       Ethanol RINs declined on Tuesday: 2017’s were 3/8 lower at 14-15 ½; and 2018’s fell ¼ to 20 ¼-20 ½

·       The September RBOB/September ethanol spread snugged in $.0019 to $.7787/gallon yesterday  

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 &nbs​p;                    

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• Choice boxed beef values fell $1.10 on Tuesday to $212.53 and are down $1.04 compared to last week
• Current nearby board cattle crush value is $7.31/cwt vs. last week’s $7.35, last month’s $6.59 & last year’s $8.32
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined 74-cents on Tue. to $63.89 and is $1.10 lower vs. a week ago 
• CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.70 on Tue. to $47.09.  October futures fell $2.775 but are still $4.91 below the index 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather