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MARKET TREND Firm CH up 1, SF up 4, WH up 1

December 15, 2017 07:05 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

  • MARKET TREND—Firm: CH: up $.0050; SF: up $.0250; WH: up $.0075; KWH: up $.01

·       MACRO.  Overseas markets said to be lower on U.S. tax uncertainty; U.S. futures ARE higher, however.  ASIA—Weaker: Nikkei, -0.62%; Shanghai, -0.80%; Hang Seng, -1.09%EUROPE: Mostly lower: DAX, -0.26%; FTSE, +0.06%; CAC, -0.35%.  WALL STREET—Futures are firmer—DOW, +50; S&P, +4.25; NAS, +16.25.  EXTERNALS: $ Index-.014 @ 93.465;Gold+$2.40 @ $1,256; Jan crude: +$0.36 @ $57.40/bl.  Del’y: SBM, 92; SBO, 104; C, 142; ETOH, 0; HRW, 28; SRW, 153

  • T-storm Weather: The first in a series of systems triggers some thunderstorms in Argentina Sat.-Sun. and southern Brazil and Paraguay Sun.-Mon.  The main events follow from Tue.-Wed. forward as a series of systems pass in a new pattern and trigger heavy thunderstorm clusters in varying areas at varying times, essentially wiping out topsoil dryness and stabilizing or improving subsoil dryness.  Otherwise, areas of rain continue in northern areas of Brazil as remnants of cool fronts trigger thunderstorms
  • CH, up $.0050 @ $3.49; CK, up $.0050 @ $3.5725.  Fund activity was net even on Thursday          
  • SF, up $.0250 @ $9.7025; SH, up $.0250 @ $9.8125.  Funds: sold 6 SB, 6 SBM, 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $1.05, 0; LY, $.66 
  • WH, up $.0075 @ $4.19; WK, up $.0075 @ $4.3150.  Funds were estimated to have purchased 2 K                

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Unshipped 17/18 export sales of U.S. corn as of Dec. 7 were 590 mbu, which is down 22% from 754 mbu last year

  • March 2018 corn futures on Thu. closed at $3.48 ½; one year ago, March 2017 corn futures settled at $3.56 ½
  • Consultant: Due to dry topsoil, this year will go down as probably the slowest corn planting on record in Argentina.  Later planted corn in Argentina in recent years did fine when the summer were very wet, despite localized flooding

·       T-storm Weather: If an area of Argentina is to miss significant rain totals over the next two weeks, it would be limited to southwestern production areas.  This includes key sunflower areas, but not much corn

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

  • Unshipped 17/18 export sales of U.S. soybeans as of Dec. 7 were 496 mbu—down 22% from 635 mbu last year
  • T-storm Weather: Converging air masses trigger thunderstorms each of the next 10 to 14 days in northern soybean growing areas of Brazil, producing generalized totals of 3.50” to 7.00” across a wide area

·       Consultant: Approx. 28-30% of soybeans in Argentina will be double-cropped this year, which would be a record

·       Unshipped 17/18 export sales of U.S. all wheat as of Dec. 7 were 211 mbu—down 11% from 236 mbu last year

·       T-storm Weather: The central and southern U.S. Plains were unusually dry over the last 60 days with little or no precipitation having fallen, leaving 85% of HRW wheat drier than normal over the period

ENERGY

·       Firmer: CLF18+$.36 @ $57.40; EBG +$0.16 @ $63.47; EBG-QCLF-$0.18; RBF,+.0126; NGF, +.030; HOF, +.0066

·       On Thursday, cash ethanol markets were weaker: Chicago was quoted at $1.274, down $0.021; Basis to Chicago—New York, +8 ½; Gulf, +6 ¼; Dallas, +2; Tampa, +16 ¾; and LA, +18

·       On Thu., ethanol RINs were lower: 2016’s down 1 at 73 ½-74 ½; 2017’s off 1 at 74-75; & 2018’s eased ¾ to 74 ½-75 ½

·       The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread recovered much of Wednesday’s loss, +$.045 to+$.39670/gallon  

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                &n​bsp;                    

  • Choice boxed beef values fell $1.44 on Thursday to $201.04, and are $4.04 lower vs. last week
  • Dressed steer weight for week end Dec. 2: 903 lbs, down 1 lb v. last week, 902.5 for 4-week avg. and 913 last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed 35-cents on Thu. to $76.21, but is still $6.67 lower vs. a week ago 

  • CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.22 on Thu. to $64.64.  February futures firmed $0.825, and are $2.985 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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