HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—Weaker: CH, -$.0150; SH, -$.0075; WH, -$.0425; KWH, -$.0475
· What caught my eye: Hmm. A report on the South America corn situation by Rosario Board of Trade suggests increased demand in Brazil could trim as much as 8 ½ MMT from the 19/20 export outlook. The USDA says domestic use will only be up 1.1 MMT
· China introduces new measures to aid business affected by coronavirus. Asia: Mostly firm: Nikkei, +0.89%; Shanghai, -0.32%; Hang Seng, +0.46%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.49%; FTSE, +0.80%; CAC, +0.59%. WALL STREET: Futures, firm--DOW, +74; S&P, +7.75; NAS, +33.50. EXTERNALS: March crude, +$0.65 @ $52.70; Gold: +$9.90 @ $1,614; Mar $ Index, +.067 @ 99.400
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T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, heavy rain affects a wide area over the next two weeks as cool air pushes far to the north, improving soil moisture for second-crop corn, but likely slowing first-crop harvesting and second-crop planting at times. In Argentina, dry and cool weather dominate over the next 7 to 10 days as surface-level high pressure dominates, leaving temperatures ideal for reproductive and filling corn and soybeans, though heavy rain is not immediately foreseen
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CH, dn $0.0150 @ $3.8150; CK, dn $.0175 @ $3.8575. Active fund buying on Tuesday—China, wheat . . . 15 K
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SH, dn $.0075 @ $8.9150; SK, dn $.01 @ $9.0125. Funds: even SB, bot 1 SBM, & sold 1 SBO. Board crush: $0.86, +3; LY, $0.97,-;
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WH, dn $.0425 @ $5.6250; WK, dn $.0425 @ $5.6075. Funds buy 12 K as locusts invade Pakistan and SW
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 corn ending stocks are forecast at 1.976 bbu versus the latest USDA estimate of 1.892 bbu
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T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, heavy rainfall of 2.50” to 5.00” occurs over the next two weeks from the state of Paraná north, preventing dryness from being a problem for safrinha (double crop) corn through at least early-March
· Consultant: 2019/20 Brazil corn est. is unch this week at 100.0 MMT; neutral bias going forward. Approximately 90% of the safrinha (double crop) corn in the state of Mato Grosso will be planted within the ideal planting window
· U.S. corn exports for the 19/20 marketing year through Feb. 13 totaled 485 mbu, which is 49% below last year’s total of 952 mbu
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 soybean ending stocks forecast at 0.495 bbu versus the latest USDA estimate of 0.425 bbu
· Consultant: 2019/20 Argentina soybean est. increased 1.0 MMT to 54.0 MMT; neutral to higher bias going forward
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T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, dry and unseasonably cool weather dominate for the next 7 to 10 days; highs in the 70s-80s & lows in the 50s-60s occur most days, which is typically ideal for reproductive & post-reproductive soybeans
· ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 wheat ending stocks forecast at 0.935 bbu versus the latest USDA estimate of 0.940 bbu
· T-storm Weather®: light precipitation affects southern half of the central U.S. Sat.-Sun., including most HRW wheat
ENERGY
· Firm: CLH20, +$0.65 @ $52.70; EBJ, +$0.62 @ $58.13; EBJ-QCLJ, unch; RBH, +.0070; NGH, -.015; HOH, +.0160
· Chicago ethanol closed up $.0110 at $1.3685; basis, mixed: NYC, -$.0010 @ $.0840; Gulf, +$.0040 @ $.1115; Dallas, +$.0040 @ +$.08150; Tampa, -$.0010 @ +$.1765; LA, +$.0040 @ +$.2015
· Ethanol RINs values, unch/firmerr: 2018’s, unch @ 23 ¾ -24 ¼; 2019’s, +1.00 @ 26 -28; 2020’s, +1.25 @ 31 ½ -34      
· The March RBOB/March ethanol spread gained $.0256 on Tuesday to close at $.2509/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef declined $1.13 on Tuesday to $206.13 and $1.70 lower versus last week
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Estimates for Feb. 21 USDA Cattle on Feed: Feb. 1 on feed, 102.3%; Placed in Jan., 101.5%; Marketed in Jan., 101.0%
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value soared $2.52 on Tue. to $63.93 and is $1.08 higher versus a week ago
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $42.37/cwt vs. last week’s $43.97, last month’s $49.48 & last year’s $37.43
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
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