HIGHLIGHTS

·       USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report will be released at 11:00 am CDT

·       TRENDS—Up:  CK, +$.0325; SK, +$.0950; WK, +$.0175; KWK, +$.03.  Del’y: SBM, 123; SBO, 219; RR, 11; HRW, 0; SB, 43 

·       What caught my eye: Let’s see what, if any, changes the USDA makes in both the corn and soybean balance sheets.  The export forecast in each case may merit a revision

·       Rebounding?  Asia: Up: Nikkei, +0.85%; Shanghai, +1.82%; Hang Seng, +1.41%; EUROPE: Up—DAX, +3.63%; FTSE, +3.93%; CAC, +4.24%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Much Higher--DOW, +1,017; S&P, +121; NAS, +365.  EXTERNALS: April crude, +$3.20 @ $34.31; Gold: -$1.20 @ $1,671; Mar $ Index, +.975 @ 95.845

• T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, some thunderstorms Tue.-Wed. but more-so over Fri.-Sun. break more than three weeks of little to no rain & nearly two weeks of heat.  In Brazil, dry & hot weather affect the southern half of second-crop corn for another week, after which some thunderstorms follow.  The northern half will also be fairly dry this week, but better rainfall follows with time
• CK, up $.0325 @ $3.76; CN, up $.0325 @ $3.7825.  The funds opened week selling 4 K   
• SK, up $0.0950 @ $8.7950; SN, up $.0950 @ $8.8850.  Funds: Sold 8 SB; 5SBO; 5 SBM.  Board crush: $0.94 (K/K), -2; LY, $0.99 
• WK, up $.0175 @ $5.2050; WN, up $.0125 @ $5.20.  Fund buying on Monday totaled 2 K                                

CORN/SORGHUM

​ ·       USDA WASDE report at 11:00 CDT: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn 19/20 carryout is 1.885 bbu v. 1.892 in Feb.

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade est. Brazil corn crop--19/20, 100.9 MMT; Argentina corn crop—19/20, 50.1 MMT

·       ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 corn ending stocks est. at 2.061 bbu compared to the February USDA est. of 1.892 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: in southern Brazil where ~40% of safrinha (double crop) corn is grown, dry/hot weather continue for at least one week.  Scattered thunderstorms then form March 17-18, followed by additional rain for at least 5 days

·       Consultant: Brazil corn crop est .is unch at 100.0 MMT, with a neutral bias.  Planting of safrinha (double crop) corn typically ends March 15, but record high domestic corn prices in Brazil may encourage farmers to plant later this year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA WASDE report 11:00 CDT: March 10: Avg. trade guess U.S. soybean 19/20 carryout is 0.440 bbu vs. 0.425 in Feb.

·       USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade est. Brazil soybean crop--19/20, 125.0 MMT; Argentina bean crop—19/20, 53.4 MMT

·       ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 soybean ending stocks est. at 0.520 bbu compared to the February USDA est. of 0.425 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: rain March 13-15 in Argentina produces 0.50”-1.50” for soybeans; a much cooler period follows

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is unch at 54.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias going forward 

·       USDA WASDE report at 11:00 CDT: Avg. trade est. U.S. wheat carryout--19/20, 0.943 bbu versus 0.940 in Feb.

·       T-storm Weather®: rain aids driest wheat in OK-TX Fri.-Sat., while heavy totals focus on/near Delta SRW this week

ENERGY

·       DOWN: CLJ20, +$3.20 @ $3.31; EBK, +$2.49 @ $36.86; EBK-QCLK, -0.63; RBJ, +.0767; NGJ, +.071; HOJ, +.0869

·       Chicago ethanol eased $.0030 Monday to $1.2075; basis, firmer:  NYC, +$.02 @ $.0975; Gulf, +$.02 @ $.1250; Dallas, +$.0250 @ +$.1225; Tampa, +$.0250 @ +$.2125; LA, +$.0050 @ +$.2375

·       Ethanol RINs values, DOWN: 2018’s, -4.00 @ 28-32; 2019’s, -5.50 @ 30 -34; 2020’s, -5.50 @ 33 -36                               ​;                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;               

·       The April RBOB/April ethanol spread swung $.2211 on Monday to -$.0731, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY           &nb​sp;        &nbs​p;                  

• Choice boxed beef eased 11-cents on Monday to $207.36, but is still 83-cents higher versus last week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price fell $1.68 v. last week to $113.17/cwt, and is down $14.98 v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.04 on Monday to $66.85, and is up $1.21 versus a week ago

• Current nearby board hog crush value is $40.40/cwt vs. last week’s $38.73, last month’s $40.12 & last year’s $39.24

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®