TRENDS Mostly weaker CZ, Down 1, SF, Up 7, WZ, Down 1

·       TRENDS—Mostly weaker: CZ, -$.04; SF, +$.03; WZ, -$.0350; KWZ, -$.0325.  Del’y:  RR, 1; SB, 6.  Dalian: C, -7 ½; SB, + 1 ½  

·       What caught my eye: Significant jump in Brazil’s Mato Grosso soybean planting the past week as progress moved ahead nearly 30 points to 83% complete, about 8 ½ points off the 2019 pace and just 5 behind average

·       Global equity markets are higher as some news channels call Biden victorious

• Asia:  Higher:  Nikkei, +2.12%; Shanghai, +1.86%; Hang Seng, +.18%
• EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +1.89%; FTSE, +1.38%; CAC, +1.60%
• WALL STREET: Up!–DOW futures, +417; S&P, +52; NAS, +211
• EXTERNALS: Dec crude, +$1.29 @ $38.43; Gold: +$5.70 @ $1,957; Mar $ Index, +0.160 @ 92.365
• T-storm Weather®:  Scattered thunderstorms affect Brazil and Paraguay this week and next week as cool fronts pass and dissipate, but below-normal totals remain probable.  In Argentina, areas of high pressure leave eastern areas much drier than normal over the next two weeks, diminishing soil moisture as rains over Oct. 19-26 move further into the past, while western areas turn wet from occasional t-storms along the edge of the high
• CZ, dn $.04 @ $4.0275; CH, dn $.04 @ $4.0975. Fund sold 2 K on Friday, harvest progress and pre-report position squaring           
• SF, up $.03 @ $11.0450; SH, up $.0325 @ $11.0250.  Funds sold 1 SB; 4 SBM; 1 SBO. Board crush: $1.32 (Z/X), -$.10; LY, $0.82
• WZ, dn $.0350 @ $5.9850; WH, dn $.03 @ $6.06.  The funds sold 3 K on Friday                            ​  

CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S.​ corn harvested in today’s USDA Crop Progress report is estimated to be near 92%, which is up 10 points from last week.  This is also sharply above the 62% pace of last year and would be the fastest since 2015 (92%)

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 47.8 mbu needed; 28.4 last week.  Milo—5.5 needed; 3.7 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: Dry and very mild weather persists today across the U.S. Corn Belt.  A strong cold front

at midweek then causes temps to plummet, with heaviest rain across Iowa, WI, southeast MN & northern MO

·       Ukraine corn production estimates vary widely between 26.0 and 33.0 MMT, down from 35.9 MMT in 2019

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybeans harvested est. at 93% vs. 87% last week, 82% last year & 5-year avg. of 90%: fastest since 2016 (94%)

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 37.0 mbu needed; 76.5 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: In central & northern Brazil, the most likely scenario is for 2.00”-4.00” of rainfall to occur across primary soybean areas over the next two weeks (mainly in 7-10 days), compared to normal rainfall is ~3.00” to ~5.00”

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 18.6 mbu needed; 10.5 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: Rain forms Tue. with a cold front in US central/southern Plains, but mainly just east of HRW wheat

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLZ20, +$1.29 @ $38.43; EBF, +$1.32 @ $40.75; EBF-CLF, -0.07; RBZ, +.0312; NGZ, -.034; HOZ, +.0351

·       Chicago ethanol was $.01875 weaker Friday at 1.53125/gallon. Basis, mostly weaker: NYC, -$.0075 @ -$.0025; Gulf, +$.00875 @ +$.05375; Dallas, -$.00125 @ +$.03375; Tampa,  -$.0125 @ +$.12875; LA, -$.01225 @ +$.04375

·       Ethanol RIN values, higher: 2019’s, +2.50 @ 63 -67 ½; 2020’s: +2.50 @ 64-68; 2021, +4.00 @ 67 ½ - 69 ½                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                                                 &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;

·       The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is trading $.0302 higher at -$.2754 per gallon as the week gets underway 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                            &nbs​p;          

<​wbr>< >Choice boxed beef firmed $1.77 on Friday, and is up $6.22 compared to last weekFriday’s week-to-week gain in choice boxed beef was the largest since Aug. 26The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $2.18 on Fri. to $82.95, and is down $0.09 versus a week agoLean Hog Index eased $0.40 on Fri. to $71.12.  December futures plummeted $2.525 and are $6.220 below the index

​Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

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