HIGHLIGHTS

·        TRENDS—Mostly Weaker: CU, -$.0175; SQ, -$.05; WU, -$.0025; KWU, +$.0075. 

·        What caught my eye:   Somewhat of a surprise were the 2 to 4-point declines in corn ratings for MN, IA, NE and OH this week which were not fully offset by smaller gains for IL, SD and MO

·        EU leaders agree to an economic and coronavirus recovery package.  Asia—Higher:  Nikkei, +0.73%; Shanghai, +0.20%; Hang Seng, +2.31%; EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +1.84%; FTSE, +0.57%; CAC, +1.34%.  WALL STREET: Futures, higher --DOW, +159; S&P, +22.75; NAS, +94.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude, +$1.03 @ $41.84; Gold: +$8.40 @ $1,812; Sep $ Index, -.072 @ 95.700

·        T-storm Weather®: seasonable to slightly cool weather over the next few days will be accompanied by several waves of energy that trigger thunderstorms within a wide area, producing 0.50" to 1.50" on most U.S. corn, soybeans, and spring wheat with highest totals north and south.  A period of heat begins Thu.-Fri. and lasts three to five days as upper-level high pressure bubbles overhead, triggering thunderstorms in central and northern areas

• CU, dn $.0175 @ $3.2650; CZ, dn $.0150 @ $3.3425.  Funds sell 8 K to begin the week as weather looks non-threatening                              
• SQ, dn $.05 @ $8.98; SX, dn $.0525 @ $8.9150.  Funds: Bot 4 K SB, 2 SBO, 3 SBM.  Board crush: $0.61 (Q/Q), 0; LY, $0.92
• WU, dn $.0025 @ $5.2175; WZ, dn $.0025 @ $5.2850.  The funds sold 8 K on Monday       

CORN/SORGHUM

·       ​ USDA estimates U.S. corn silking as of July 19 at 59% vs. 30% last year and the 5-year avg. of 54%; updated corn crop conditions peg combined Good/Excellent rating at 69%, which is unchanged versus last week but above 57% last year

·        T-storm Weather®: a cool front likely breaks heat over July 27-29 across the U.S. Corn Belt, triggering some additional rain.  More of the same likely follows as seasonable and hot air vie for position, causing some thunderstorms to form

·        ATI Research: U.S. ending stocks of corn for 20/21 pegged at 2.706 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 2.648 bbu

·        T-storm Weather®: a total of 37%, 47% of corn in Ukraine and the E.U. were drier than normal over the  last 30 days for the period ending Sat.; in contrast, only 17% of U.S. corn was drier than normal over the same time period

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        USDA estimates U.S. soybeans blooming as of July 19 at 64% vs. 35% last year and the 5-year average of 57%; updated  soybean crop conditions peg combined Good/Excellent rating at 69% versus 68% last week and above 54% last year

·        T-storm Weather®: a cool front likely breaks heat over July 27-29 across the U.S. Corn Belt, triggering some additional rain.  More of the same likely follows as seasonable and hot air vie for position, causing some thunderstorms to form

·        ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 20/21 pegged at 0.506 bbu compared to the USDA forecast of 0.425 bbu

·        T-storm Weather®: fluctuating temps & rain this week result in favorable outlook for spring wheat in Canada, N Plains

·        ATI Research: crop model pegs U.S. HRS wheat crop at 518 mbu, which is up 4 mbu  compared to last week (0.7%)

ENERGY

·        Higher: CLQ20, +$1.03 @ $41.84; EBU, +$1.11 @ $44.39; EBU-QCLU, +0.10; RBQ, +.0355; NGQ, -.001; HOQ, +.0345

·        Chicago ethanol was $.0285 weaker Monday at $1.2215; basis, weaker: NYC, -$.0315 @ +$.0685; Gulf, -$.0265 @ +$.0385; Dallas, -$.0165 @ +$.0535; Tampa, -$.0215 @ +$.2135; LA, -$.0315 @ +$.1985

·        Ethanol RIN values, steady: 2019’s, unch @ 44 ½-45 ½; 2020’s: unch @ 47 -47 ¼                                     ​;                        ​                         ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;           

· ​       The Aug RBOB/August ethanol spread was moved out $.0670 cents to +$.12150/gallon, premium RBOB

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                            &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp; 

• Choice boxed beef was $1.27 higher on Monday at $201.74, but is still $1.52 lower versus a week ago
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was up $0.38 v. last week at $96.36/cwt, but is dn $16.66 v. last year
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $2.93 on Monday to $68.02, but is still up $0.82 compared to last week 
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $32.21/cwt vs. last week’s $30.98, last month’s $30.61 & last year’s $46.56

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®