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TRENDS Mostly lower CU, Down 6, SQ, Up 4, WU, Down 12

July 20, 2020 08:53 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·      HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly lower: CU, -$.0250; SQ, +$.04; WU, -$.0350; KWU, -$.0150. 

·       What caught my eye:   The Army Corps of Engineers says the Illinois River’s LaGrange Lock will open about 2 weeks later than initially scheduled, which could further complicate 1st quarter logistics as C/SB exports are likely to exceed 1.2 bbu, up 40% vs LY

·       Global equities are little changed.  Asia—Mostly higher:  Nikkei, +0.09%; Shanghai, +3.11%; Hang Seng, -0.12%; EUROPE: Mixed—DAX, +0.42%; FTSE, -0.45%; CAC, unch.  WALL STREET: Futures, mostly weaker --DOW, -54; S&P, -7.25; NAS, +0.50.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude, -$0.41@ $40.18Gold: +$2.70 $1,812; Sep $ Index, -.049 @ 95.840

·       T-storm Weather®: weekend rain was as expected with heavy totals in ND & northwest MN, and mixed totals in IL, IN, IA, OH.  The central U.S will be seasonable to cool over the next few days as surface-level high pressure moves across northern areas, leaving maximums in the 70s-80s and minimums in the 50s-60s.  Scattered thunderstorms affect the central U.S. through Wed.-Thu.  The location and timing of rains are difficult to determine, but 0.50” to 1.50” is probable for most corn, soybeans, & spring wheat

  • CU, dn $.0250 @ $3.3050; CZ, dn $.03 @ $3.3675.  Possible additional export business fuels fund buying, 5 K                              
  • SQ, up $.04 @ $9.02; SX, up $.0425 @ $8.9825.  Funds: Bot 3 K SB, 7 SBO, sold 1 SBM.  Board crush: $0.61 (Q/Q), +1; LY, $0.98
  • WU, dn $.0350 @ $5.3125; WZ, dn $.0350 @ $5.37.  The funds were even in Friday’s trade     

CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn Good/Excellent crop condition ratings in today’s USDA Crop Progress report are projected to be 67-69%, compared to 69% last week and 57% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: sharp warming develops from west to east Thu.-Fri. across the U.S. Corn Belt, leaving temps considerably above normal; highs in mid-90s & lows in mid-70s for 3-5 days.  Best rain chances in the Dakotas & MN 

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 39.6 mbu needed; 35.5 last week.  Milo—6.7 needed; 2.8 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: dryness remains a concerns for corn in parts of Ukraine, through coolness dominates most areas

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean Good/Excellent crop condition ratings in today’s USDA Crop Progress report are projected to be 66-68%, compared to 68% last week and 54% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: sharp warming develops from west to east Thu.-Fri. across the U.S. Corn Belt, leaving temps considerably above normal; highs in mid-90s & lows in mid-70s for 3-5 days.  Best rain chances in the Dakotas & MN 

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 28.3 mbu needed; 17.8 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: Heat has ended on spring wheat in western Russia, but lingers to the east this week (and in Kazakhstan).  Rain occurs on drought-stricken wheat in/adjacent the Ural District (& Kazakhstan), less-so elsewhere

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 18.3 mbu needed; 22.9 last week

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLQ20, -$0.41 @ $40.18; EBU, -$0.37 $42.77EBU-QCLU, unch; RBQ, -.0112; NGQ, -.014; HOQ, -.0077

·       Chicago ethanol fell $.0950 Friday to $1.25; basis, steady/firmer: NYC, +$.1025 @ +$.1000; Gulf, +$.0050 @ +$.0650; Dallas, unch @ +$.07; Tampa, +$.0150 @ +$.230; LA, +$.0150 @ +$.23

·       Ethanol RIN values, steady 2019’s, unch @ 44 ½-45 ½; 2020’s: unch @ 47 -47 ¼                                                             ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;            

​ ·       The Aug RBOB/August ethanol spread was $.0265 wider at +$.05450/gallon, premium RBOB

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           ​            ​

  • Choice boxed beef eased $0.33 on Friday to $200.47, and is down $4.03 compared to the previous week
  • October live cattle futures on Friday closed at $106.875, the highest settlement price for the contract since March 5
  • The mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $4.24 on Fri. to $70.95, and is $2.13 higher versus last week 
  • CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.06 on Fri. to $47.55.  August futures fell $0.850 but are still $5.25 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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; KWU, -$.0150. 

·       What caught my eye:   The Army Corps of Engineers says the Illinois River’s LaGrange Lock will open about 2 weeks later than initially scheduled, which could further complicate 1st quarter logistics as C/SB exports are likely to exceed 1.2 bbu, up 40% vs LY

·       Global equities are little changed.  Asia—Mostly higher:  Nikkei, +0.09%; Shanghai, +3.11%; Hang Seng, -0.12%; EUROPE: Mixed—DAX, +0.42%; FTSE, -0.45%; CAC, unch.  WALL STREET: Futures, mostly weaker --DOW, -54; S&P, -7.25; NAS, +0.50.  EXTERNALS: Aug crude, -$0.41@ $40.18Gold: +$2.70 $1,812; Sep $ Index, -.049 @ 95.840

·       T-storm Weather®: weekend rain was as expected with heavy totals in ND & northwest MN, and mixed totals in IL, IN, IA, OH.  The central U.S will be seasonable to cool over the next few days as surface-level high pressure moves across northern areas, leaving maximums in the 70s-80s and minimums in the 50s-60s.  Scattered thunderstorms affect the central U.S. through Wed.-Thu.  The location and timing of rains are difficult to determine, but 0.50” to 1.50” is probable for most corn, soybeans, & spring wheat

  • CU, dn $.0250 @ $3.3050; CZ, dn $.03 @ $3.3675.  Possible additional export business fuels fund buying, 5 K                           &nbs​p;  ​
  • SQ, up $.04 @ $9.02; SX, up $.0425 @ $8.9825.  Funds: Bot 3 K SB, 7 SBO, sold 1 SBM.  Board crush: $0.61 (Q/Q), +1; LY, $0.98
  • WU, dn $.0350 @ $5.3125; WZ, dn $.0350 @ $5.37.  The funds were even in Friday’s trade     

CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn Good/Excellent crop condition ratings in today’s USDA Crop Progress report are projected to be 67-69%, compared to 69% last week and 57% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: sharp warming develops from west to east Thu.-Fri. across the U.S. Corn Belt, leaving temps considerably above normal; highs in mid-90s & lows in mid-70s for 3-5 days.  Best rain chances in the Dakotas & MN 

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 39.6 mbu needed; 35.5 last week.  Milo—6.7 needed; 2.8 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: dryness remains a concerns for corn in parts of Ukraine, through coolness dominates most areas

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean Good/Excellent crop condition ratings in today’s USDA Crop Progress report are projected to be 66-68%, compared to 68% last week and 54% last year

·       T-storm Weather®: sharp warming develops from west to east Thu.-Fri. across the U.S. Corn Belt, leaving temps considerably above normal; highs in mid-90s & lows in mid-70s for 3-5 days.  Best rain chances in the Dakotas & MN 

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 28.3 mbu needed; 17.8 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: Heat has ended on spring wheat in western Russia, but lingers to the east this week (and in Kazakhstan).  Rain occurs on drought-stricken wheat in/adjacent the Ural District (& Kazakhstan), less-so elsewhere

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Wheat, 18.3 mbu needed; 22.9 last week

ENERGY

·       Lower: CLQ20, -$0.41 @ $40.18; EBU, -$0.37 $42.77EBU-QCLU, unch; RBQ, -.0112; NGQ, -.014; HOQ, -.0077

·       Chicago ethanol fell $.0950 Friday to $1.25; basis, steady/firmer: NYC, +$.1025 @ +$.1000; Gulf, +$.0050 @ +$.0650; Dallas, unch @ +$.07; Tampa, +$.0150 @ +$.230; LA, +$.0150 @ +$.23

·       Ethanol RIN values, steady 2019’s, unch @ 44 ½-45 ½; 2020’s: unch @ 47 -47 ¼                                                                     &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;     

·       The Aug RBOB/August ethanol spread was $.0265 wider at +$.05450/gallon, premium RBOB

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                             ​;          

  • Choice boxed beef eased $0.33 on Friday to $200.47, and is down $4.03 compared to the previous week
  • October live cattle futures on Friday closed at $106.875, the highest settlement price for the contract since March 5
  • The mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $4.24 on Fri. to $70.95, and is $2.13 higher versus last week 
  • CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.06 on Fri. to $47.55.  August futures fell $0.850 but are still $5.25 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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