HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—Mostly lower: CK, -$.04; SK, -$.0850; WK, +$.0050; KWK, -$.0050
· What caught my eye: Negative crude oil futures prices? Something not often seen as the combination of a long position getting squeezed, decimated demand and insufficient storage in a time of supply excess drove near-by prices sharply negative
· Oil crash accelerates, rips currencies & stocks! Asia: Lower-- Nikkei, -1.97%; Shanghai, -0.90%; Hang Seng, -2.20%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -2.68%; FTSE, -1.82%; CAC, -2.52%. WALL STREET: Futures, Down--DOW, -427; S&P, -38.50; NAS, -69.5. EXTERNALS: May crude, +$28.93 @ ($7.97); Gold: -$27.10 @ $1,684; Sep $ Index, +0.475 @ 100.510
· T-storm Weather®: an area of rain & thunderstorms initiates today in southeast CO, then moves eastward tonight & Wed.-Thu., producing substantial rain on much (but not all) HRW wheat, as well as southern Corn Belt & Delta. A "northwest flow" pattern follows for at least a week, which is where a series of systems produce pockets of rain & thunderstorms in Dakotas, Corn Belt, & Delta as cool fronts pass every couple of days; rains in this setup are typically spread out such that no area turns particularly wet
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CK, dn $.04 @ $3.1025; CN, dn $.04 @ $3.1825. Heavy fund selling at 15 K along with a favorable planting forecast
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SK, dn $.0850 @ $8.18; SN, dn $.0825 @ $8.28. Funds sold 7 K SB, 4 K SBM, 4 K SBO. Board crush: $0.88 (K/K), -3; LY, $1.03
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WK, up $.0050 @ $5.4925; WN, unch @ $5.4750. Funds buy 10 K—EU & FSU weather worries
CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA estimates U.S. corn planting progress as of April 19 at 7% vs. 5% last year and the 5-year average of 9%. Sorghum planting progress is pegged at 19% vs. 17% last year and the 5-year average of 19%
· ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 corn ending stocks are increased 400 mbu on ideas the far-reaching effects of COVID-19 will cut into feed/residual use, and a 50 mbu cut in exports. ATI carry-out is at 2.705 bbu versus USDA at 2.092 bbu
· T-storm Weather®: the dry season likely starts on corn in northern Brazil in a day or two, while drying continues on its southern corn until a couple thunderstorms over April 29-30
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA estimates U.S. soybean planting progress as of April 19 at 2% vs. 1% last year and the 5-year average of 1%
· T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., a wide area was near & drier than normal last 14 days, which is favorable for soybean planting, though temps were sharply below normal by -13°F (4/19 was 11th straight day that was cooler than normal)
· ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 soybean ending stocks are estimated at 0.513 bbu versus USDA at 0.480 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat Good/Excellent dn 5% to 57%; model pegs ‘20 crop @ 1.216 bbu; -18 mbu v last week
· USDA estimates U.S. spring wheat planting progress as of April 19 at 7% vs. 4% last year and the 5-year avg. of 18%
· T-storm Weather®: a potent system triggers heavy thunderstorms in southeast CO, central and southern KS, OK, and nearby areas of TX tonight & Wed. to improve soil moisture on much (but not all) HRW wheat from 0.75”-1.25” totals
ENERGY
· DOWN! CLK20, +$28.93 @ ($7.97); EBM, -$5.20 @ $20.38; EBM-QCLM, -1.51; RBK, -.00841; NGK, -.028; HOK, -.0779
·   Chicago ethanol declined $.0275 Monday to $.9125/gallon; basis, mixed: NYC, -$.0075 @ $.0125; Gulf, +$.0050 @ $.0650; Dallas, +$.0075 @ +$.0825; Tampa, +$.0125 @ +$.1925; LA, -$.0075 @ +$.1275
· Ethanol RINs values, weaker; 2018’s, -1.00 @ 21 ¾-22 ¾; 2019’s, -1.25 @ 25-27; 2020’s: -0.875 @ 35-36 ½        
· The May RBOB/May ethanol spread widened slightly, $.0004 to $.2617/gallon on Monday, premium ethanol
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY
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Choice boxed beef increased $9.39 on Monday to $248.38, and is $22.52 higher versus a week ago
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The week-to-week increased in choice boxed beef values of $22.52 was the largest since March 23
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USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $6.37 higher on Monday at $65.52, & is up $13.13 versus last week
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Current nearby board hog crush value is $28.84/cwt vs. last week’s $28.78, last month’s $42.97 & last year’s $71.74
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
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