HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly lower:  CK, -$.04; SK, -$.0850; WK, +$.0050; KWK, -$.0050

·       What caught my eye: Negative crude oil futures prices?  Something not often seen as the combination of a long position getting squeezed, decimated demand and insufficient storage in a time of supply excess drove near-by prices sharply negative 

·       Oil crash accelerates, rips currencies & stocks!  Asia: Lower-- Nikkei, -1.97%; Shanghai, -0.90%; Hang Seng, -2.20%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -2.68%; FTSE, -1.82%; CAC, -2.52%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Down--DOW, -427; S&P, -38.50; NAS, -69.5.   EXTERNALS: May crude, +$28.93 @ ($7.97); Gold: -$27.10 @ $1,684; Sep $ Index, +0.475 @ 100.510

·       T-storm Weather®: an area of rain & thunderstorms initiates today in southeast CO, then moves eastward tonight & Wed.-Thu., producing substantial rain on much (but not all) HRW wheat, as well as southern Corn Belt & Delta.  A "northwest flow" pattern follows for at least a week, which is where a series of systems produce pockets of rain & thunderstorms in Dakotas, Corn Belt, & Delta as cool fronts pass every couple of days; rains in this setup are typically spread out such that no area turns particularly wet 

• CK, dn $.04 @ $3.1025; CN, dn $.04 @ $3.1825.  Heavy fund selling at 15 K along with a favorable planting forecast
• SK, dn $.0850 @ $8.18; SN, dn $.0825 @ $8.28.  Funds sold 7 K SB, 4 K SBM, 4 K SBO. Board crush: $0.88 (K/K), -3; LY, $1.03
• WK, up $.0050 @ $5.4925; WN, unch @ $5.4750.  Funds buy 10 K—EU & FSU weather worries  

CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA estimates U.S. corn planting progress as of April 19 at 7% vs. 5% last year and the 5-year average of 9%.  Sorghum planting progress is pegged at 19% vs. 17% last year and the 5-year average of 19%

·       ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 corn ending stocks are increased 400 mbu on ideas the far-reaching effects of COVID-19 will cut into feed/residual use, and a 50 mbu cut in exports.  ATI carry-out is at 2.705 bbu versus USDA at 2.092 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: the dry season likely starts on corn in northern Brazil in a day or two, while drying continues on its southern corn until a couple thunderstorms over April 29-30

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA estimates U.S. soybean planting progress as of April 19 at 2% vs. 1% last year and the 5-year average of 1%

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., a wide area was near & drier than normal last 14 days, which is favorable for soybean planting, though temps were sharply below normal by -13°F (4/19 was 11th straight day that was cooler than normal)

·       ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 soybean ending stocks are estimated at 0.513 bbu versus USDA at 0.480 bbu

·       ATI Research: U.S. winter wheat Good/Excellent dn 5% to 57%; model pegs ‘20 crop @ 1.216 bbu; -18 mbu v last week

·       USDA estimates U.S. spring wheat planting progress as of April 19 at 7% vs. 4% last year and the 5-year avg. of 18%

·       T-storm Weather®: a potent system triggers heavy thunderstorms in southeast CO, central and southern KS, OK, and nearby areas of TX tonight & Wed. to improve soil moisture on much (but not all) HRW wheat from 0.75”-1.25” totals

ENERGY

·       DOWN! CLK20, +$28.93 @ ($7.97); EBM, -$5.20 @ $20.38; EBM-QCLM, -1.51; RBK, -.00841; NGK, -.028; HOK, -.0779

· &n​bsp;     Chicago ethanol declined $.0275 Monday to $.9125/gallon; basis, mixed:  NYC, -$.0075 @ $.0125; Gulf, +$.0050 @ $.0650; Dallas, +$.0075 @ +$.0825; Tampa, +$.0125 @ +$.1925; LA, -$.0075 @ +$.1275

·       Ethanol RINs values, weaker; 2018’s, -1.00 @ 21 ¾-22 ¾; 2019’s, -1.25 @ 25-27; 2020’s: -0.875 @ 35-36 ½                         &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​      

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread widened slightly, $.0004 to $.2617/gallon on Monday, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                     ​  

• Choice boxed beef increased $9.39 on Monday to $248.38, and is $22.52 higher versus a week ago
• The week-to-week increased in choice boxed beef values of $22.52 was the largest since March 23
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $6.37 higher on Monday at $65.52, & is up $13.13 versus last week
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $28.84/cwt vs. last week’s $28.78, last month’s $42.97 & last year’s $71.74

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®