Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

HIGHLIGHTS

·      TRENDS—Mostly lower: CH, +$.0050; SH, -$.0025; WH, -$.0150; KWH, -$.0175 

·      What caught my eye: Thursday marked the 11^th consecutive trading SH has declined, losing 66 cents during the period.  Unshipped sales to China are at a 14-year low as are total sales.  And a respectable South American crop is on the horizon 

·      Coronavirus impact on economic growth continues. Asia: Mixed: Nikkei, +0.99%; Shanghai, closed; Hang Seng, -0.52%; EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -0.31%; FTSE, -0.79%; CAC, -0.59%.  WALL STREET: Futures, down—DOW, -131; S&P, -15.75; NAS, -50.75.  EXTERNALS: March crude, +$0.34 @ $52.48; Gold: -$5.70 @ $1,584; Mar $ Index, +.024 @ 97.730

• T-storm Weather®: today’s outlook is slightly wetter in Argentina because a cool front is increasingly probable to trigger a round of heavy thunderstorms in five to seven days.  Otherwise, the forecast is fairly similar in Brazil (and Paraguay) where alternating dry and wet periods continue, leaving some sensitive crops in the central and north drier than ideal until rains in one to two weeks, while harvesting and planting accelerate until then, and heavy rain focuses on the south into next week
• CH, up $.0050 @ $3.8050; CK, up $.0075 @ $3.8550.  The funds sold 8 K—again, demand concerns, coroonavirus    
• SH, dn $.0025 @ $8.76; SK, dn $.0025 @ $8.9025.  Funds: sold 10 K SB; 6 SBM & 10 K SBO.  Board crush: $1.02, -3; LY, $0.98,-; 
• WH, dn $.01 @ $5.5950; WK, dn $.0175 @ $5.5675.  Make that 5 straight session funds are sellers, 3 K yesterday                 

CORN/SORGHUM

·      Corn export sales rose to a 6-week high of 48.6 mbu but are 29%/546 mbu off the 18-19 sales pace.  An average of 29.9 per week is needed to reach the USDA export forecast

·      Argentine corn is 97% planted, up from 94.7% LW and rated 59.6% G/E, up slightly from 59.3% LW

·      Milo sales were a negative 11,000 bushels with 2.4 million per week needed

·      Consultant: Argentina 2019/20 corn production estimate is unchanged this week at 47.5 MMT, with a neutral bias going forward.  Soil moisture remains mostly adequate

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Soybean Export Sales of 17.3 mbu were at the low end of the 15-37 trade range & below the 19.7/wk implied rate.  Stellar SBM sales (again) of 439 K, nearly 3 ¼ times the implied wkly pace.  SBO solid at 29.4, vs only 6.2 needed

·      Soybean planting is now 100% complete in  Argentina and rated 69.6% G.E, up from 65.5% LW, a sizable gain

·      T-storm Weather®:  much of Argentina was seasonable to wet in recent weeks and a round of substantial rainfall within Tue.-Thu. maintains adequate to moist soils within a favorably-cool period

·      Wheat Export Sales were strong at 23.7, near the upper end of the 11-26 trade range; just 10.8/wk needed

• T-storm Weather®: Plains snowpack diminishes until it breaks Mon.-Wed. A colder period extends into the following week, allowing several systems across the central/eastern U.S.  Totals are probable to remain light in the Plains/WCB

ENERGY

·      Higher: CLH20, +$0.34 @ $52.48; EBH, +$0.40 @ $58.69; EBH-QCLH, +.04; RBH, +.01985; NGH, +.003; HOH, +.0178

·      Chicago ethanol was $.01 weaker at $1.34; basis values versus Chicago mostly steady:  NYC, +$.0075 @ $.1075; Gulf,unch @ $.10; Dallas, unch @ +$.0650; Tampa, unch @ +$.16; LA, unch @ +$.19

·      Ethanol RINs values were firm: 2018’s, +0.50 @ 10 1/2 -10 ¼; 2019’s, +0.25 @ 12 -12 ½; 2020’s, +0.25 @ 18-18 ¼                                     &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​     

·      The February RBOB/February ethanol spread narrowed $.0381 on Thursday, to $.1537/gallon       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 &nbs​p;                      

• Choice boxed beef was down $0.17 on Thursday at $213.35 and is $1.97 lower versus a week ago
• Light cash cattle trade was seen in parts of the South on Thu. at $122—$2.00 lower vs. last week's weighted avg.

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $0.86 on Thu. to $69.52 and is $8.42 lower versus last week 

·      CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.38 on Thu. to $62.78.  February futures were off $3.000 & are $1.480 below the index      

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®