HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mostly higher:  CK, -$.0150 SK, +$.08; WK, +$.0425; KWK, +$.0425 

·       What caught my eye: Driven by China, yesterday’s corn export sales report of 71 mbu now has the unshipped total at 543 mbu, just 3 less than LY and improving the likelihood the USDA’s BOY shipment total of 1.066 bbu will run 120 million above LY

·       30-day rally, time for a correction as futures point to lower start?  Asia: Higher-- Nikkei, +3.88%; Shanghai, +0.26%; Hang Seng, +0.56%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -2.28%; FTSE, -3.91%; CAC, -3.10%.  WALL STREET: Futures, lower--DOW, -528; S&P, -61; NAS, -176.  EXTERNALS: May crude, +$0.15 @ $22.75; Gold: -$16.60 @ $1,644; Sep $ Index, +0.047 @ 99.515

·       T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, some thunderstorms form in driest southern corn areas this weekend when a weak wave passes, but substantial totals are not expected.  Scattered thunderstorms then affect the same areas next Thu.-Fri. when a cool front passes, but well-organized rain is not expected.  A drier period most likely follows as upper-level high pressure encompasses a wider area and leaves northern corn drier than normal, all of which will need to be monitored

• CK, dn $.0150 @ $3.4725; CN, dn $.0075 @ $3.5350.  Pre-report positioning as the Funds sell 3 on Thursday  
• SK, up $0.08 @ $8.8825; SN, up $.08 @ $8.9275.  Funds: Sold 2 SB; 3 SBM; 3 SBO.  Board crush: $1.22 (K/K), +3; LY, $0.99 
• WK, up $.0425 @ $5.7325; WN, up $.05 @ $5.6125.  The funds sold 3 despite an exceptionally good week of export sales                                      
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CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA Prospe​ctive Plantings report to be released on March 31: average trade estimate of U.S. corn acreage is 94.1 million acres (range of 92.0-96.4)

·       USDA Grain Stocks on March 31: avg. trade est. U.S. corn stocks, 8.134 bbu (range 7.825-8.492) v. 8.613 bbu last year

·       T-storm Weather: in southern Brazil, dry & hot weather prevail today.  Some thunderstorms follow Sat.-Sun.; only 0.50”- 1.00” on driest corn in Paraná & Mato Grosso do Sul.  Several days of warm & dry weather follow in the region

·       Consultant: bias on the current Argentina corn production est. of 49.0 MMT is neutral to lower.  Much of the earlier planted corn was too far along in its maturity to have a significant impact from recent rain

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA Prospective Plantings report to be released on March 31: avg. trade est. of U.S. soybean acreage is 85.0 million acres (range of 82.7-87.5)

·       USDA Grain Stocks March 31: avg. trade est. U.S. soybean stocks, 2.228 bbu (range 2.075-2.701) v. 2.727 bbu last year

·       USDA Prospective Plantings March 31: avg. trade est. of U.S. wheat acreage is 45.0 million acres (range of 44.0-46.0)

·       USDA Grain Stocks March 31: avg. trade est. U.S. wheat stocks, 1.430 bbu (range 1.385-2.701) v. 1.572 bbu last year

·       T-storm Weather:  a large system produces rain and thunderstorms today- Sat. across/near NE, the Corn Belt, and Delta where 0.67”-1.33” falls, while HRW wheat in southeast CO & nearby areas of the OK and TX panhandles stay dry

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLK20, +$0.15 @ $22.75; EBK, -$0.39 @ $24.95; EBK-QCLK, -$.44; RBK, +.0187; NGK, -.004; HOK, +.0137

·       Chicago ethanol was up $.0475 yesterday to $.9425/gallon; basis, mostly firmer:  NYC, +$.0175 @ $.08250; Gulf, +$.0025 @ $.0875; Dallas, +$.0375 @ +$.1775; Tampa, +$.0175 @ +$.2475; LA, -$.0675 @ +$.0375

·       Ethanol RINs values, steady/lower: 2018’s, unch @ 25-27; 2019’s, -1.00 @ 23 ½ -26; 2020’s, unch @ 29 ½ -31 ½                                    &nb​sp;                     &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                 

·       The April RBOB/April ethanol inverse reversed course, gaining $.060 to $.4262/gallon, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                     ​;                  

• Choice boxed beef fell $1.73 on Thursday to $253.57, but is still up $3.7- versus a week ago
• There was a light round of cash cattle trade on Thu. in parts of the North for steady/slightly lower prices than Wed.
• USDA Hogs and Pigs: All hogs & pigs, 104.0% (103.4% avg. est); breeding, 100.4% (101.4%); market, 104.3% (103.5%)
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.94 lower on Thu. at $76.52, & is down $1.11 versus last week

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®