HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—Mostly firm: CN, -$.02; SN, +$.0325; WN, +$.03; KWN, +$.0450
· What caught my eye: End of May Brazil soybean stocks are estimated to be down 16%/12 MMT year to year, mostly as the result of a 16+ MMT/50% increase in exports during the Feb-May time frame
· Global markets higher, again on economic optimism & easing U.S. domestic unrest. Asia: Higher-- Nikkei, +1.29%; Shanghai, +0.07%; Hang Seng, +1.37%; EUROPE: Firm—DAX, +2.46%; FTSE, +1.34%; CAC, +2.04%. WALL STREET: Futures, higher--DOW, +186; S&P, +15.5 NAS, +33. EXTERNALS: July crude, +$0.03 @ $38.34; Gold: -$10.20 @ $1,724; Sep $ Index, -0.256 @ 97.375
· T-storm Weather®: scattered thunderstorms affect the Corn Belt and Delta through at least Fri. A complex period unfolds Sat.-Sun. as a tropical storm or hurricane and a large system approach the central U.S. The setup likely results in thunderstorms in/near the Dakotas this weekend and at least some rain in the Delta, followed by rains further into the Corn Belt within Mon.-Wed.; 0.75" to 1.50" is probable for most through June 8, but it will take another day or two to better tune amounts
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CN, dn $.02 @ $3.2225; CU, dn $.0125 @ $3.2725. The funds bought an estimated 2 K yesterday
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SN, up $.0325 @ $8.5375; SQ, up $.03 @ $8.5575. Funds: bot 6 SB, 1 SBM, 4 SBO. Board crush: $0.81 (N/N), -5; LY, $1.27
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WN, up $.03 @ $5.1075; WU, up $.03 @ $5.1525. The funds sold 6 K Tuesday, rain in the EU forecast & HRW harvest underway
CORN/SORGHUM
· T-storm Weather®: sharp cooling & drying unfolds within June 8-10 from northwest to southeast across the U.S. Corn Belt & lasts ~5 days, followed by typical temperature fluctuations & thunderstorm chances around mid-month
· U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CDT
· Consultant: Brazil corn crop est. is unchanged this week at 96.0 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias going forward
· T-storm Weather®: several cool fronts produce heavy rainfall of 1.75”-3.50” on second-crop corn in southern Brazil over the next two weeks, breaking drought as harvest approaches in Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· T-storm Weather®: sharp cooling & drying unfolds within June 8-10 from northwest to southeast across the U.S. Corn Belt & lasts ~5 days, followed by typical temperature fluctuations & thunderstorm chances around mid-month
· Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is unch this week at 50.0 MMT; neutral to slightly lower bias going forward
· ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports remains at 12-16 mbu per week
· T-storm Weather®: the driest wheat areas of the E.U.; i.e. France, Germany, and the U.K., turn considerably wetter over the next 10 days as a cool and stormy period begins
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLN20, +$0.03 @ $38.34; EBQ, -$0.45 @ $39.125; EBQ-QCLQ, -$0.53; RBN, -.0057; NGN, +.013; HON, -.0137
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +3.0 (-0.5); Gasoline, +1.0 (+1.7); Distillates, +2.7 (+5.9). Estimates for ethanol prod. avg. 0.784 mbpd (range: 0.744-0.802). Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 23.046 mb (range 22.713-23.445)
· Chicago ethanol gained $.0150 yesterday to $1.1975/gallon; basis, mixed: NYC, -$.0125 @ +$.0575; Gulf, -$.0050 @ $.0950; Dallas, -$.0050 @ +$.1025; Tampa, +$.0050 @ +$.1925; LA, +$.0050 @ +$.2275
· Ethanol RIN values, up: 2019’s, +4.00 @ 49 -52; 2020’s: +3.50 @ 49-54      
· The July RBOB/June ethanol inverse continues to narrow, losing $.0516 yesterday to $.0417/gallon, premium ethanol
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef was $22.42 lower on Tuesday at $318.73, and is down $66.76 compared to last week
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Another round of light cash cattle trade occurred on Tue. in the North where dressed cattle traded for $176-$178
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The mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $6.81 on Tue. to $73.64, & is $22.93 lower versus a week ago
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CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.73 on Tue. to $59.23. June futures fell $2.200 and are $6.830 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
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