HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CZ, +$.0050; SF, +$.0025; WZ, -$.0650; KWZ, -$.0675.  Del’y:  RR, 3; SB, 113.  Dalian: C, +14 ¼; SB, +24   

·       What caught my eye: With higher ethanol grind/DDGs output still in doubt for 20-21; less milo and likely wheat feeding as well and higher GCAU numbers, some are arguing the USDA’s expected 127 mbu decline in corn feed/residual use may be over-stated

·       China’s industrial output up nearly 7% past 12 mos; retail sales rise 4.3%; Japan’s Q3 GDP up 5%; no U.S. covid lock-down?

• Asia:  Higher:  Nikkei, +2.05%; Shanghai, +1.11%; Hang Seng, +0.86%
• EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.56%; FTSE, +0.72%; CAC, +1.15%
• WALL STREET: Higher–DOW futures, +274; S&P, +29; NAS, +62
• EXTERNALS: Dec crude, +$0.92 @ $41.05; Gold: +$2.90 @ $1,889; Mar $ Index, -0.063 @ 92.645
• T-storm Weather®: Below-normal rainfall remains probable across Brazil over the next two weeks, despite thunderstorms. Argentina will also be drier than normal, but a round of organized thunderstorms is likely in 7-10 days when a system passes, and weekend rains were wetter than expected in some (but not all) key areas.  Going forward, the main point is that scattered rain affects Brazil over the next 3-5 days, followed by 7-10 days of fairly dry weather as areas of high pressure dominate
• CZ, up $.0050 @ $4.11; CH, up $.0050 @ $4.20. The funds bought 4 K on Friday               
• SF, up $.0025 @ $11.4825; SH, up $.0125 @ $11.4925.  Funds bot 2 SB; 2 BO, 2 SM. Board crush: $1.16 (Z/F), -$.02; LY, $0.89
• WZ, dn $.0650 @ $5.87; WH, dn $.07 @ $5.95.  Fund buying to close out the week totaled 5 K                  

  &nbs​p;CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn harvested in Crop Progress report est. at 95% vs. 91% last week, 73% last year & the 5-year average of ~87%

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 55.6 mbu needed; 27.2 last week.  Milo—5.5 needed; 2.8 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: Rain over the last two days was wetter than expected in some key corn areas of Argentina where 1.00”-2.00” fell in parts (not all) of Córdoba, Buenos Aires & Santa Fe.  This broke the dry spell that started in late Oct.

·       ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. corn export sales to Far/Mid-East destinations at just under 200 mbu are at a 10-year high.  This may reflect a crop hedge against the possibility of weather problems with the corn crop in South America

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybeans harvested in Crop Progress report est. at 96% v. 92% last week, 89% last year & 5-year avg. of ~93%

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 35.4 mbu needed; 91.7 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: Rainfall of 1.75”-3.50” falls over the next two weeks across soybeans in central and northern Brazil (especially within the next five days), but 3.00”-5.00” is normal; driest in Goiás and Mato Grosso

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 18.8 mbu needed; 11.2 last week

·       T-storm Weather®: Dry and very mild weather prevail over the next 5-7 days for U.S. HRW wheat in the Plains

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLZ20, +$0.92 @ $41.05; EBF, +$0.81 @ $43.59; EBF-CLF, -0.12; RBZ, +.0184; NGZ, -.152; HOZ, +.0199

·       Chicago ethanol retreated $.04625 on Friday to $1.4225. Basis, firm: NYC, +$.04125 @ +$.0525; Gulf, +$.04125 @ +$.0675; Dallas, +$.03625 @ +$.08750; Tampa, +$.03125 @ +$.1775; LA, +$.04125 @ +$.13125

·       Ethanol RIN values, weaker: 2019’s, -4.00 @ 60 ½ - 64 ½; 2020’s, -2.75 @ 61 -65; 2021, -2.75 @ 62 - 66                           ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                                              

·       The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is $.0391 tighter this morning at -$.1981 per gallon 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        ​;               

• Choice boxed beef eased $0.52 on Friday to $225.98, but remain $11.66 higher compared to a week ago
• Additional cash cattle trade occurred on Friday at $110 in the South, which is $3.00 higher than the prior week
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $3.36 on Fri. to $78.69, and is down $4.26 versus the previous week
• Lean Hog Index declined $0.48 on Fri. to $70.84.  December futures were $1.825 lower & are $5.940 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather