HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—Mixed: CZ, +$.0050; SF, +$.0025; WZ, -$.0650; KWZ, -$.0675. Del’y: RR, 3; SB, 113. Dalian: C, +14 ¼; SB, +24
· What caught my eye: With higher ethanol grind/DDGs output still in doubt for 20-21; less milo and likely wheat feeding as well and higher GCAU numbers, some are arguing the USDA’s expected 127 mbu decline in corn feed/residual use may be over-stated
· China’s industrial output up nearly 7% past 12 mos; retail sales rise 4.3%; Japan’s Q3 GDP up 5%; no U.S. covid lock-down?
-
Asia: Higher: Nikkei, +2.05%; Shanghai, +1.11%; Hang Seng, +0.86%
-
EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.56%; FTSE, +0.72%; CAC, +1.15%
-
WALL STREET: Higher–DOW futures, +274; S&P, +29; NAS, +62
-
EXTERNALS: Dec crude, +$0.92 @ $41.05; Gold: +$2.90 @ $1,889; Mar $ Index, -0.063 @ 92.645
-
T-storm Weather®: Below-normal rainfall remains probable across Brazil over the next two weeks, despite thunderstorms. Argentina will also be drier than normal, but a round of organized thunderstorms is likely in 7-10 days when a system passes, and weekend rains were wetter than expected in some (but not all) key areas. Going forward, the main point is that scattered rain affects Brazil over the next 3-5 days, followed by 7-10 days of fairly dry weather as areas of high pressure dominate
-
CZ, up $.0050 @ $4.11; CH, up $.0050 @ $4.20. The funds bought 4 K on Friday
-
SF, up $.0025 @ $11.4825; SH, up $.0125 @ $11.4925. Funds bot 2 SB; 2 BO, 2 SM. Board crush: $1.16 (Z/F), -$.02; LY, $0.89
-
WZ, dn $.0650 @ $5.87; WH, dn $.07 @ $5.95. Fund buying to close out the week totaled 5 K
 CORN/SORGHUM
· U.S. corn harvested in Crop Progress report est. at 95% vs. 91% last week, 73% last year & the 5-year average of ~87%
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 55.6 mbu needed; 27.2 last week. Milo—5.5 needed; 2.8 last week
· T-storm Weather®: Rain over the last two days was wetter than expected in some key corn areas of Argentina where 1.00”-2.00” fell in parts (not all) of Córdoba, Buenos Aires & Santa Fe. This broke the dry spell that started in late Oct.
· ATI Research: Unshipped U.S. corn export sales to Far/Mid-East destinations at just under 200 mbu are at a 10-year high. This may reflect a crop hedge against the possibility of weather problems with the corn crop in South America
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· U.S. soybeans harvested in Crop Progress report est. at 96% v. 92% last week, 89% last year & 5-year avg. of ~93%
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 35.4 mbu needed; 91.7 last week
· T-storm Weather®: Rainfall of 1.75”-3.50” falls over the next two weeks across soybeans in central and northern Brazil (especially within the next five days), but 3.00”-5.00” is normal; driest in Goiás and Mato Grosso
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 18.8 mbu needed; 11.2 last week
· T-storm Weather®: Dry and very mild weather prevail over the next 5-7 days for U.S. HRW wheat in the Plains
ENERGY
· Firm: CLZ20, +$0.92 @ $41.05; EBF, +$0.81 @ $43.59; EBF-CLF, -0.12; RBZ, +.0184; NGZ, -.152; HOZ, +.0199
· Chicago ethanol retreated $.04625 on Friday to $1.4225. Basis, firm: NYC, +$.04125 @ +$.0525; Gulf, +$.04125 @ +$.0675; Dallas, +$.03625 @ +$.08750; Tampa, +$.03125 @ +$.1775; LA, +$.04125 @ +$.13125
· Ethanol RIN values, weaker: 2019’s, -4.00 @ 60 ½ - 64 ½; 2020’s, -2.75 @ 61 -65; 2021, -2.75 @ 62 - 66        
· The Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol spread is $.0391 tighter this morning at -$.1981 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
-
Choice boxed beef eased $0.52 on Friday to $225.98, but remain $11.66 higher compared to a week ago
-
Additional cash cattle trade occurred on Friday at $110 in the South, which is $3.00 higher than the prior week
-
The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $3.36 on Fri. to $78.69, and is down $4.26 versus the previous week
-
Lean Hog Index declined $0.48 on Fri. to $70.84. December futures were $1.825 lower & are $5.940 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.