HIGHLIGHTS

·        TRENDS—Mixed:  CZ, +$.0025; SF, unch; WZ, -$.0125; KWZ, -$.0050.

·        What caught my eye:  Market’s appear to be struggling for direction this morning.  At the same time, export markets still facing considerable Black Sea competition with corn exports the past month double those of a year ago and wheat, 50% larger

·        Markets are mixed, seeking direction from trade negotiations.  ASIA: Firm--Nikkei, +0.49%; Shanghai, +0.62%; Hang Seng, +1.35%.  EUROPE: Mostly weaker—DAX, -0.17%; FTSE, +0.10%; CAC, -0.26%.  WALL STREET—Futures are firm-- DOW, +56 S&P, +3.75; NAS, +33.11.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude: -$0.16 @ $57.56; Gold: -$9.20 @ $1,459; $ Index: -.068 @ 97.931

• T-storm Weather®: The forecast is similar to slightly wetter in South America with rains to improve soil moisture in Argentina over the next week as a number of waves of energy pass.  Scattered t-storms affect central and northern Brazil on many of the next 14 days, but t-storms hold off for at least a week in southern Brazil and Paraguay where the drought persists.  Weekend rainfall was slightly less than forecast in both Argentina and central Brazil
•  CZ, up $.0025 @ $3.7150; CH, up $.0025 @ $3.81.  The funds sold 6 K on Friday, as export sales were short of what’s needed                
• SF, unch @ $9.1825; SH, up $.0025 @ $9.31.  Funds: Bot 2 SB, 4 SBM and sold 4 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.89, 0; LY, $1.00
• WZ, dn $.0125 @ $5.0150; WH, dn $.0150 @ $5.0450.  The funds sold 4 K to close out the week, sales disappoint   

CORN/SORGHUM

·        CZ2019 closed 4 ½ cents lower at $3.71 ¼ Friday, cents higher at $3.76 ¾; down $.06 from LW, up ½ from a week ago and versus $3.64 1/4 for CZ2018 LY

·        Export inspections released at 8:30 EST: 16-26 expected, versus 22.1 last week and 40.0 per week needed

·        Corn is expected to be 71% harvested, up 5 points and vs LY at 56% and the AVG of 56%

·        Light rain affects the U.S. Corn Belt Wed., and some rain affects feedlots in the southern Plains Thu.-Fri., followed by five to seven days of drying before a stormier pattern begins

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·     &nb​sp;  Export inspections released at 8:30 EST: 42-55 soybeans expected, versus 48.9 last week and 32.8 per week needed 

·        Soybean harvest should be approaching 90%, 1 point off the 2018 pace and versus 93% AVG

·        Export inspections released at 8:30 EST: 13-20 wheat expected, versusu 19.4 LW and 18.2/week needed

·        Winter wheat expected to be 95% seeded, up 3 points and versus 92% LY and the AVG of 95%.  Ratings are seen 1 point lower at 53%, 3 points below LY as well as the AVG

·        SF2020 edged 1 ½ higher on Friday to $9.18 ¼, and is down 12 ¾ cents from a week ago and vs SF2019 @ $8.92 ¼

·        WZ2019 fell $.05 Friday to $5.02 ¾;  is down 7 ½ cents from a week ago and vs WZ2018 @ $5.06 ¾ LY

ENERGY

·        Weaker: CLZ19, -$0.16 @ $57.56; EBF, -$0.15 @ $63.15; EBF-QCLF, +.04; RBZ, -.0055; NGZ, -.094; HOZ, -.0093

·        Chicago ethanol was $.01625 higher at $1.5575; basis values were lower:  NYC, -$.00625 @ +$.10750; Gulf, -$.00125 @ +$.10; Dallas, -$.00625 @ +.0475; Tampa, -$.00625 @ +$.1575; LA, -$.00625 @ +$.12275

·        Ethanol RINs were lower: 2018’s, -.25 @ 5 -6; 2019’s, -0.25 @ 11 ¾ -12 ½; 2020’s, -0.75 @ 21 ½ -22                                              &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​         

·       &nbs​p;The December RBOB/December ethanol spread gained $,0102 on Friday to $.2050/gallon    

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;            

·        Choice beef cut-out was down $0.26 Fri @ $240.80 & $1.68 above LW; Select beef was $1.51 lower @ $214.33, up $1.07 from LW    

• Calls from late Friday afternoon have cash cattle and the hog market $1 lower

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was up $0.26 Fri. to $86.48 and $4.88 higher than the prior week

·        CME Lean Hog Index was up $.02 on Friday to $59.52 and down $0.77 from a week ago 

·        Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®