Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CU, -$.0-75; SU, +$.0250; WU, unch; KWU, -$.0250

·       What caught my eye: yesterday’s sales announcement in corn boosted the “known” Chinese total to around 6.4 MMT or approximately 250 mbu.  Looks like vs last fall, weekly exports will run 5-12 mbu higher with a 50/50 Gulf/PNW split, +/-        

·       Mixed reports . . . new home sales surge 36% in July; Conference Board Consumer Confidence falls again, to 84.8

• Asia—Mostly weaker:  Nikkei, -0.03%; Shanghai, -1.30%; Hang Seng, +0.25%
• EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, +0.45%; FTSE, -0.31%; CAC, +0.18%
• WALL STREET: Mostly weaker to start --DOW, -53; S&P, -0.25; NAS, +39.75
• EXTERNALS: Oct crude, -$0.16 @ $43.19; Gold: +$2.30 @ $1,933; Sep $ Index, +.076 @ 93.095
• T-storm Weather®: some rain falls today in advance of Hurricane Laura in the U.S. Delta, followed by heavy rain within Thu.-Sat. across the Delta & far southern Corn Belt when the remnant of Laura passes & turns ~10% of corn & ~15% of soybeans wet.  Additionally, scattered thunderstorms affect the northeast third to half of corn & soybeans when a wave passes Thu.-Fri. (likely including some of the driest crops in IA, IL, & NE, though best rains likely focus to the immediate north in drier areas of MN & WI)
• CU, dn $.0075 @ $3.40; CZ, up $.0050 @ $3.54. Huge fund buying, 20 K, ratings decline more than expected; demand outlook   
• SU, up $.0250 @ $9.1625; SX, up $.0250 @ $9.2275.  Funds bot 7 K SB, 4 K SBM, 3 K SB0. Board crush: $0.80 (U/U), -5; LY, $1.02
• WU, unch @ $5.2725; WZ, unch @ $5.3550.  Funds bought 6 K, partially driven by strength in row crops  

CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather®: a strong system and cold front approach and pass within Aug. 30 – Sep. 2 across the central U.S., producing widespread rain as more than one thunderstorm cluster forms.  A cooler period then follows

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. corn exports remains at 35 to 45 mbu per week range

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CDT

·       T-storm Weather®: unusually dry/warm weather affects corn in Ukraine the next two weeks, accelerating  maturation

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather®: a strong system and cold front approach and pass within Aug. 30 – Sep. 2 across the central U.S., producing widespread rain as more than one thunderstorm cluster forms.  A cooler period then follows

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. soybean exports continues at 30 to 40 mbu per week range

·       T-storm Weather®: minor rains affect Australia wheat this weekend and next week, but not a clear-cut heavy event

·       ATI Research: near-term exports of U.S. wheat are projected to range from 16-20 mbu per week

ENERGY

·       Weaker:  CLV20, -$0.16 @ $43.19; EBV, -$0.13 @ $45.73; EBV-QCLV, +0.03; RBV, -.0090; NGV, +.010; HOV, -.0066

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude -3.0 (-4.5); Gasoline -1.6 (-6.4); Distillates -0.1 (+2.3).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.924 mbpd (range: 0.900-0.940).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 20.144 mb (range: 18.750-20.520)

·       Chicago ethanol gained $.0190 to $1.3710/gallon; basis, mixed: NYC, +$.01350 @ +$.1315; Gulf, -.0140 @ +$.1040; Dallas, -$.0090 @ +$.0990; Tampa, -$.0090 @ +$.1840; LA, +$.0060 @ +$.1690

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +0.75 @ 43-44 ½; 2020’s: +0.25 @ 46 -46 ¼                                                     ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;         

·      &n​bsp;The Sep RBOB/August ethanol spread is trading -$.0972, off $.0162, premium to ethanol

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                &​nbsp;                      <​/wbr>

• Choice boxed beef firmed $2.21 on Tuesday to $229.68, and is $8.82 higher compared to a week ago 
• Cash cattle trading developed on Tue. at $105 to $106 in Kansas, which is steady to $1.00 lower versus last week
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $0.51 higher on Tue. at $74.44, and is up $0.94 versus last week
• CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.54 on Tue. to $56.60.  October futures were up $1.350 but are $0.650 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®