Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed:  CK, +$.0350; SK, -$.0250; WK, +$.1075; KWK, +$.0975 

·       What caught my eye: Although down from LW’s China-driven corn sales # of 71.4 mb, this week’s 42+ figure puts the 4-week average at 52 million/week, 2^nd highest seasonal number in the past 25 years, trailing only 2018’s 61.3/week average

·       OPEC considering 6 mbpd production cut.  Asia: Mostly lower-- Nikkei, +1.47%; Shanghai, -0.60%; Hang Seng, -0.19%; EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.47%; FTSE, -1.22%; CAC, -1.00%.  WALL STREET: Futures, down--DOW, -266; S&P, -29.5; NAS, -88.  EXTERNALS: May crude, +1.06 @ $22.35; Gold: -$7.60 @ $1,630; Sep $ Index, +0.459 @ 100.730

·       T-storm Weather®: light to moderate rain & snow affects areas in/near the U.S. Corn Belt, Delta, & eastern Plains through Tue. Thereafter, attention turns to the probability for a large system to pass & produce areas of rain, snow & thunderstorms April 10-12, especially in Corn Belt & Delta & at least parts (if not most) of the Plains.  More of the same probably follows as the jet stream remains nearby.  Temps will fluctuate in a very wide range going forward, occasionally alternating between March & May levels

• CK, up $.0350 @ $3.37; CN, up $.0375 @ $3.4225.  Funds sell 3 K despite a respectable week of export sales     
• SK, dn $.0250 @ $8.5625; SN, down $.0175 @ $8.6225.  Funds: Sold 4 SB, 7 SBM, bit 3 SBO.  Board crush: $1.10 (K/K), -7; LY, $1.02 
• WK, up $.1075 @ $5.5250; WN, up $.08 @ $5.4675.  Report day:  funds sell 6 K as global markets ease               

   &​nbsp;     CORN/SORGHUM

·       May 2020 corn futures on Thursday closed at $3.33 ½, which is the lowest settlement price for life of the contract

·       T-storm Weather: scattered rain forms Monday along a cool front in driest corn areas of southern Brazil, but only 0.50"-1.00" totals.  Some additional thunderstorms potentially follow a few days later, but unlikely heavy rain

·       U.S. 2019/20 corn export sales for the week ending March 26 totaled 42.3 mbu, which is nearly double the implied pace of 21.3 mbu

·       Buenos Aires Grain Exchange on Thursday pegged the Argentina corn harvest at 22.2%.  Most of the harvested crops are early-planted plots.  The final production estimate is unchanged at 50.0 MMT 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: early soybean yields are very good in the northern core region of Argentina.  It is the double crop soybeans in Argentina that are most at risk for disappointing yields

·       Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegs Argentina soybean harvest at 8.1%.  A downward trend in yields is expected to continue & even deepen once double crop harvest begins.  Prod. Is est. at 49.5 MMT, down 2.5 MMT from last week

·       U.S 2019/20 wheat export sales for week end March 26 were a marketing year low 2.7 mbu, dn 86% from 4-week avg,

·       T-storm Weather: temperatures fluctuate within a wide range through April 8 across the central U.S.  Most notably, this includes the rapid development of coldness in the Plains, peaking with a freeze on all HRW wheat on Saturday

ENERGY

·       Up: CLK20, +$1.06 @ $26.38; EBM, +$2.84 @ $32.80; EBM-QCLM, +$2.13; RBK, +.0306; NGK, +.025; HOK, +.0472

·       Chicago ethanol rose $.0125 yesterday to $.8175/gallon; basis, firner:  NYC, +$.0450 @ $.1325; Gulf, +$.0025 @ $.0975; Dallas, +$.0125 @ +$.1175; Tampa, +$.0225 @ +$.2025; LA, +$.0425 @ +$.1625

·       Ethanol RINs values, firm: 2018’s, +.50 @ 16 -18; 2019’s, +.0125 @ 19 ½-20; 2020’s: +0.50 @ 28 -29 ½                                             &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                         ​      

·       The April RBOB/April ethanol inverse continues to narrow, down $.0913 on Thursday to $.1822, premium ethanol     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             <​wbr>                      ​;    

• ​ Choice boxed beef was $2.53 lower on Thursday at $232.64, and is down $20.93 compared to last week
• Over the past 8 trading days, choice boxed beef has declined $24.68 (-9.6%)
• USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $2.51 on Thursday to $58.67, & is $17.85 lower versus a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index was dn $1.38 on Thu. to $63.08.  April futures plummeted $4.500 & are $18.38 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®