HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—mixed:  CK, -$.0575; SK, +$.0850; WK, +$.0025; KWK, +$.0475 

·       What caught my eye: Corn ground for ethanol production back in 2012 fell 4% when there was a sharp decline in gasoline consumption; basis last year’s use the same decline this year (conservative?)would reduce demand by a minimum of 215 mbu

·       Investors not convinced the worst is in the rear view mirror.  Asia: Down-- Nikkei, -1.68%; Shanghai, -1.83%; Hang Seng, -4.18%; EUROPE: Down—DAX, -5.16%; FTSE, -5.22%; CAC, -5.33%.  WALL STREET: Futures, down--DOW, -821; S&P, -92; NAS, -326.  EXTERNALS: April crude, -$1.66 @ $25.30; Gold: +$47 @ $1,534; Sep $ Index, +0.516 @ 100.235

·       T-storm Weather®: the southern ~40% of second-corn in Brazil remains at risk of stress because scattered thunderstorms Thu.-Fri. are unlikely enough to offset recent drying, and 7 to 10 days of drying follow as surface-level high pressure forms.  Corn to the north turns wetter with time, but only near- and below-normal rainfall is likely.  In Argentina, thunderstorms aid driest soybeans in Córdoba and Santa Fe today, followed by 7 to 10 days of drying as the end of the season nears

• CK, dn $.0575 @ $3.3825; CN, dn $.0525 @ $3.4475.  Another day of active fund selling, 20 K 
• SK, up $0.0850 @ $8.3275; SN, up $.0825 @ $8.3925.  Funds: Bot 2 SB; 2 SBM; 3 SBO.  Board crush: $1.10 (K/K), +5; LY, $1.00 
• WK, up $.0025 @ $4.9950; WN, up $.0025 @ $5.0025.  Fund buying on Tuesday totaled 2 K             

   CORN/SORGHUM

·       T-storm Weather®: in central Brazil, 1.50” to 3.00” of rainfall develops across safrinha (double crop) corn in the states of Goiás and Mato Grosso (~50% of production) over the next two weeks, with 3.00” being normal

·       Consultant: Argentina corn crop est. is unch at 49.0 MMT.  Hot and dry conditions in Argentina have not impacted corn as much as the soybeans, at least not yet

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. corn exports remains at 35-40 mbu per week

·       U.S Energy Information Administration report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·     &n​bsp; T-storm Weather®: rains today in Argentina essentially mark the last significant event of the soybean growing season because harvesting normally starts over the next two weeks and accelerates in April

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is lowered 3.0 MMT to 51.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias.  Hot and dry weather over the past few weeks in Argentina negatively impacted yield potential just as the crop was filling pods 

·       ATI Research: bias on near-term U.S. wheat exports is 15-20 mbu per week; bias remains at higher end of the range

·       T-storm Weather®: 0.50” to 1.50” of rain is forecast over the next 10 days for most U.S. HRW wheat in the Plains

ENERGY

·       Mostly lower: CLJ20, -$1.66 @ $25.30; EBK, -$1.02 @ $27.70; EBK-QCLK, +0.57; RBJ, +.0057; NGJ, -.063; HOJ, -.0134

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +3.1 (-0.4); Gasoline, -2.4 (-7.8); Distillates, -2.3 (-3.6).  Estimates for ethanol were unavailable

·       Chicago ethanol fell sharply, off $.0850 at $.99/gallon; basis, mostly firmer:  NYC, -$.015 @ $.09; Gulf, +$.0450 @ $.14; Dallas, +$.0250 @ +$.15; Tampa, +$.0050 @ +$.2450; LA, unch @ +$.26

·       Ethanol RINs values, Lower: 2018’s, -3. @ 17-19; 2019’s, -3.0 @ 15 -17; 2020’s, -2.75 @ 19 -21                          ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       

·       The April RBOB/April ethanol inverse lost $.0615 yesterday, closing at $.3166       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    &nb​sp;                  

• Choice boxed beef increased $15.57 on Tuesday to $239.93, and is up $32.84 compared to last week
• Light cash cattle trade was reported on Tue., mostly ranging from $170-$175, which is steady to up $5.00 vs. Mon.

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.32 higher on Tue. at $73.70, & is up $6.65 versus a week ago

• CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.45 on Tue. to $59.74.  April futures soared $4.500 but are $1.265 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®