HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—Mixed: CH, +$.0050; SH, +$.0150; WH, -$.02; KWH, -$.01.
· What caught my eye: Outlook Forum’s forecast for an $8.80 average farm price looks on track with a 7.4% stx/use ratio. Some analysts would take issue with both the USDA’s planted acreage assumption of 85.0 million and, 49.8 bpa yield. Exports?
· Europe is not quite sure coronavirus epidemic is contained. Asia: Mostly lower: Nikkei, -3.34%; Shanghai, -0.60%; Hang Seng +0.27%; EUROPE: Down —DAX, -0.80%; FTSE, -0.78%; CAC, -0.90%. WALL STREET: Futures, firm--DOW, +21; S&P, +1.715; NAS, +9. EXTERNALS: April crude, -$0.15 @ $51.28; Gold: -$23.60 @ $1,653; Mar $ Index, -.014 @ 99.270
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Weather: episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms impact Brazilian crops today-Wednesday. Moderate to heavy totals are expected. Dry weather is forecast for Thursday. Temps average near to above normal today, variable Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday. Dry conditions or just a few light showers are forecast for Argentina today. Dry weather follows on Wednesday. Temp are variable today, near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday
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CH, up $.0050 @ $3.7275; CK, up $.0025 @ $3.7650. Heavy fund selling to begin the week, 15 K
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SH, up $.0150 @ $8.7575; SK, up $.0175 @ $8.8425. Funds: Sold 10 SB, 5 SBM, & 15 SBO. Board crush: $0.80, -3; LY, $0.98,-;
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WH, dn $.02 @ $5.3425; WK, dn $.0275 @ $5.32. Fund selling on Monday was 15 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· Contract lows were established on Monday for May, July, September and December 2020 corn futures
· U.S. corn exports for the 19/20 marketing year through Feb. 20 totaled 521 mbu, which is 47% below last year’s total of 982 mbu
· ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 corn ending stocks are forecast at 1.976 bbu versus the latest USDA estimate of 1.892 bbu
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Consultant: Brazil corn production estimate is unchanged this week at 100.0 MMT, with a neutral bias going forward
· Through Feb. 24, the average projected crop insurance price for December 2020 corn futures is $3.9057
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· November 2020 soybean futures on Mon. closed at $9.05—lowest settlement price since May 23, 2019
· ATI Research: U.S. 2019/20 soybean ending stocks forecast at 0.495 bbu versus the latest USDA estimate of 0.425 bbu
· U.S. soybean exports for 19/20 crop year through Feb. 20 were 1061 mbu, which is 15% above last year’s 923 mbu
· Through Feb. 24, the average projected crop insurance price for November 2020 soybean futures is $9.1892
· Chicago SRW March futures on Mon. closed at $5.36 ¼—the lowest settlement price for the contract since Dec. 13
· U.S. wheat exports for the 19/20 crop year through Feb. 20 were 667 mbu, which is 10% above last year’s 607 mbu
· Weather: rain and snow affect a majority of U.S. SRW wheat in the Midwest, Delta & Southeast through Wednesday
ENERGY
· Lower: CLJ20, -$0.15 @ $51.28; EBJ, -$0.13 @ $57.17; EBJ-QCLJ, +.03; RBJ, -.0004; NGJ, -.004; HOJ, +.0027
· Chicago ethanol eased $.00625 Monday to $1.3225; basis, weaker: NYC, -$.07075 @ $.0055; Gulf, -$.08075 @ $.0255; Dallas, -$.08575 @ +$.055; Tampa, -$.10575 @ +$.0905; LA, -$.08075 @ +$.1005
· Ethanol RINs values, higher: 2018’s, +1.5 @ 24 -28; 2019’s, +2.00 @ 28 -29; 2020’s, +1.625 @ 33 ½- 35    
· The March RBOB/March ethanol spread tightend up $.0365 at $.3021/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   wbr>
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Choice boxed beef was $1.98 higher on Monday at $207.07 but is still down 19-cents versus last week
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5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price gained $0.81 v. last week to $119.71/cwt, but is down $6.65 v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.20 on Mon. to $64.90 and is $3.49 higher versus a week ago
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $43.50/cwt vs. last week’s $42.37, last month’s $48.91 & last year’s $34.46
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN
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