HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—Mixed: CH, +$.0025; SF, +$.0025;WH, -$0.0150; KWH, -$.0175. Del’y: SBM, 100; SBO, 622; C, 62; ETOH, 0; HRW, 3
· USDA Supply/Demand (WASDE) report at 11:00 am CST
· What caught my eye: Although U.S. corn exports may be getting some relief from Brazil as shipments from that country ease, not so with respect to the Black Sea where combined Russia/Ukraine exports are currently double the year ago pace; i.e., 40/week
· December 15th trade “deadline” approaching, stock futures slump. ASIA: Mostly weaker—Nikkei, -0.09%; Shanghai, +0.10%; Hang Seng, -0.22%; EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -1.51%; FTSE, -1.17%; CAC, -0.87%. WALL STREET—Futures, sharply lower—DOW, -134; S&P, -13.50; NAS, -44.00. EXTERNALS: Feb crude: -$0.32 @ $58.62; Gold: +$6.60 @ $1,472; $ Index, -.142 @ 97.502
· T-storm Weather®: dryness intensifies on key areas of Argentina over next 10-14 days as a lack of humidity keeps heavy rains to the immediate north, but including rains for first-corn and soybeans in southern Brazil and Paraguay this weekend and next week. Dry and hot weather unfold in northeast areas of Brazil over the next 10 days, including ~33% of first-corn & soybean production
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CH, up $.0025 @ $3.76; CK, up $.00725@ $3.8150. The funds sold 2 K ahead of Tuesday’s December WASDE
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SF, up $.0025 @ $8.9750; SH, up $.0050 @ $9.1225. Funds, bot 8 K SB; SBM & SBO, NA. Board crush: $1.07, -5; LY, $.84,-3;
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WH, dn $.0150 @ $5.2125; WK, dn $.02 @ $5.24. Fund selling on wheat was also estimated at 2 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
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USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade est. U.S. corn carryout--19/20, 1.861 bbu (range 1.190-1.960) & 1.910 in Nov.
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USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade est. Brazil corn crop--19/20, 100.8 MMT; Argentina corn crop—19/20, 49.7 MMT
· U.S. corn harvest is 92%, up 3 points from last week but below 100% for both last year & the 5-year avg. North Dakota at 43%; South Dakota, 83%; Wisconsin 74%; & Michigan 74%
· T-storm Weather®: light rain and snow occasionally affect northern and eastern areas of the central U.S. over the next 10 days, likely being a nuisance for remaining harvesting in MI and WI, while snowpack lingers in ND
· ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 19/20 U.S. corn is 1.919 bbu vs. November USDA estimate of 1.910
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA WASDE Dec. 10: Avg. trade est. U.S. soybean carryout--19/20, 0.474 bbu (range 0.392-0.522) & 0.475 in Nov.
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USDA WASDE report: Avg. est. Brazil soybean crop--19/20, 123.1 MMT; Argentina soybean crop—19/20, 53.1 MMT
· T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, rainfall diminishes for a 7- to 10-day period as hot upper-level high pressure forms, suppressing rain across Bahia, Goias, Minas Gerais, Tocantins, and eastern Mato Grosso (including ~33% of soybeans)
· USDA WASDE Dec. 10: Avg. trade est. U.S. wheat carryout--19/20, 1.009 bbu (range 0.964-1.050) & 1.014 in Nov.
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T-storm Weather®: most U.S. HRW wheat areas are forecast to be dry this week, while SRW wheat remains moist
ENERGY
· Lower: CLG20, -$0.32 @ $58.62; EBG, -$0.35 @ $63.90; EBG-QCLG, -.02; RBG, -.0098; NGG, -.004; HOG, -.0104
· Chicago ethanol lost $.0325 on Monday; basis values versus Chicago were mixed: NYC, +$.0075 @ $.0950; Gulf, +$.0125 @ $.1250; Dallas, -$.0025 @ +$.055; Tampa, unch@ +$.1625; LA, +$.0125 @ +$.2250
· Ethanol RINs values were mixed: 2018’s, +.1250 @ 6 ¾-7; 2019’s, +.1250 @ 12 ¾-13; 2020’s, -.50 @ 19 -19 ½    
· The January RBOB/January ethanol spread widened $.0194 yesterday to $.2918/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef declined 92-cents on Monday to $223.64 and is $8.97 lower compared to last week
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5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $0.71 v. last week at $118.92/cwt, and is $0.81 higher v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 48-cents on Mon. to $80.95 and is down $1.51 versus a week ago
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $43.44/cwt vs. last week’s $43.65, last month’s $48.41 & last year’s $41.25
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
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