Information provided may include opinions of the author and is subject to disclosures found at the end of this document.

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CH, -0.025; SF, -$.0525; WH, +$.0650; KWH, +$.0675. Del:  SBM, 57; C, 69; HRW, 6; SRW, 20      

·       What caught my eye: Sharp (up 9%) increase in the weekly Chinese soybean crush to 1.95 MMT with the latter 17% larger than in the year ago period. Crush since October 1 running 22+% ahead of the 2019 pace with the USDA projecting an 8+% increase

·       Bipartisan agreement on a new coronavirus aid package in the offing?

• Asia: Lower:  Nikkei, -0.17%; Shanghai, -0.06%; Hang Seng, -0.69%
• EUROPE:  Mostly firm:  DAX, +0.74%; FTSE, unch; CAC, +0.39% 
• WALL STREET: Higher–DOW futures, +170; S&P, +22; NAS, +56
• EXTERNALS: Jan crude, +$0.01 @ $47.00; Gold: +$14.90 @ $1,847; Mar $ Index, -.075 @ 90.580
• T-storm Weather®: Scattered rain focuses on southern Brazil through Sun.; best rain chances today-Wed. & Sat., & totaling 1.50"-3.00" for most.  A drier period follows after a cool front passes.  The same cool front shifts into central and northern Brazil over Dec. 21-23 to return scattered rain to the region, after which it lingers for several days; only isolated thunderstorms expected in Bahia, Goias, & Mato Grosso until then.  In Argentina, scattered rain affects a wide area within Fri.-Sun. to limit dryness concerns
• CH, dn $.0250 @ $4.2150; CK, dn $.0250 @ $4.2475.  The funds began the week buying 2 K  
• SF, dn $.0525 @ $11.6425; SH, dn $.0525 @ $11.7125.  Funds: Bot 4 SB, 0 SBM, 5 SBO. Board crush: $1.20 (Z/F), +6; LY, $1.04
• WH, up $.0625 @ $6.0275; WK, up $.0625 @ $6.0475.  The funds sold 8 K on Monday                           

​       CORN/SORGHUM

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks estimate for 20/21 U.S. corn is 1.607 bbu vs. December USDA estimate of 1.702

·       Consultant: Brazil 2020/21 corn crop estimate is lowered by 2.0 MMT to 102.0 MMT, with a neutral to lower bias going forward

·       T-storm Weather®: In Argentina, dryness is increasing, including higher proportions of early-corn that received under half of normal rain the last 14 days.  Scattered rain breaks dryness later this week in key areas, however; 0.75”-1.50”

·       Ukraine/Russia corn exports were 33.3 mbu this week, which is up 0.5 mbu v. prior period but down 20.0 mbu v. 2019

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks est. for 20/21 U.S. soybean is 0.118 bbu vs. December USDA estimate of 0.175

·       Consultant: Brazil 2020/21 soybean production est. is unchanged at 130.0 MMT; neutral to lower bias going forward

·       T-storm Weather®: The forecast is for 2.00”-4.00” of rain over the next two weeks for soybeans in central and northern Brazil, as one of the wettest periods of the year begins; normal rainfall amounts are ~4.50”-~5.00”

·       ATI Research: Updated ending stocks est. for 20/21 U.S. HRW wheat is 0.322 bbu vs. December USDA est. of 0.348

·       T-storm Weather®: Light snow of 1” to 3” affects driest U.S. HRW wheat in much of central & southern Plains today

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLF21, +$0.01 @ $47.00; EBG, +$0.01 @ $50.30; EBG-CLG, 0.00; RBF, +.0031; NGF, -.032; HOF, +.0007

·       Chicago ethanol was steady at $1.29/gallon. Basis, mixed:  NYC, -$0.0025 @ $.0925; Gulf, +$.0050 @ +$.10; Dallas, unch @ +$.05; Tampa, -$.0075 @ +$.1475; LA, unch @ +$.13

·       Ethanol RINs, firm: 2019’s, +.25 @ 66 ¾ - 68 ¾; 2020’s, +.25 @ 68 ½ -69 ½; 2021, +.50 @ 70-71                                  &​nbsp;                                                 &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                   

·       The Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread is $.0034 higher at +$.0050 per gallon  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   &​nbsp;                   <​/wbr>

• C​hoice boxed beef declined $4.19 on Monday to $209.69, and is down $21.11 versus the previous week
• 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price was dn $3.00 v. last week at $106.75/cwt, and is dn $12.42 v. last year
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $2.45 on Monday to $76.18, and is $0.58 lower compared to a week ago
• Current nearby board hog crush value is $31.05/cwt vs. last week’s $34.28, last month’s $32.17 & last year’s $46.05

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather