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TRENDS Mixed CH, Down 1, SF, Up 5, WH, -1

December 2, 2019 07:39 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Mixed: CH, -$.0050; SF, +$.0275; WH, -$1.00; KWH, -$.03.  Del’y: SBM, 260; SBO, 1,270; HRW, 11

·       What caught my eye:  Rabobank publishes a research note saying that even with a 100 MMT Brazil corn crop, exports in 20/21 could decline by as much as 10 MMT to 30 million—rising domestic demand and, a reduction in carry-in

·       Nov China mfg sentiment improves; Trump tweets he will bring Arg/Brzl steel tariffs. ASIA: Higher—Nikkei, +1.01%; Shanghai, +0.13%; Hang Seng, +0.37%; EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -0.03%; FTSE, -0.06%; CAC, -0.27%.  WALL STREET—Futures, up—DOW, +51; S&P, +4.75; NAS, +10.00.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: +$1.309 $56.47; Gold: -$8.50 $1,464; $ Index, +.102 @ 98.375

·       T-storm Weather®: parts of central & northern Argentina were wetter than expected over the weekend, while weekend snowfall was less than expected in northern U.S.  Potential exists for stress to develop in Argentina by mid-month from limited rainfall on early-corn & sunflowers between now & then, while frequent thunderstorms aid corn & soybeans in central & northern Brazil, & southern Brazil & Paraguay are between driest & wettest weather as thunderstorms Tue.-Thu. limit concerns

  • CH, dn $.0050 @ $3.8075; CK, dn $.0050 @ $3.8525.  Heavy (10 K) fund buying ahead of the weekend, numerous factors 
  • SF, up $.0250 @ $8.7925; SH, up $.03 @ $8.9425.  Funds: Sold 3 SB, 2 SBM, bot 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.96, -2; LY, $1.01
  • WH, dn $.0075 @ $5.41; WK, dn $.0125 @ $5.4350.  The funds bot 8 K Friday, few KWZ deliveries, 0 WZ, good sales               

CORN/SORGHUM

·    &​nbsp;  December 2019 corn futures on Fri. closed at $3.71 ¼; one year ago, December 2018 corn futures settled at $3.66 ½

·       T-storm Weather®: in the U.S., beyond some rain in the Delta around Fri., mainly dry and seasonable weather affect most corn areas over the next week as areas of high pressure pass and any cold periods are offset by mild periods

·       Consultant: In Brazil, most of safrinha (double crop) corn in the state of Mato Grosso should be planted on time. Mato Grosso represents ~43% of safrinha corn in Brazil, so a good crop can offset potentially lower yields in other states

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 40.7 mbu needed; 23.8 last week.  Milo—2.3 needed; 0.2 last week 

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       January 2020 soybean futures on Fri. closed at $8.76 ¾; one year ago, Jan. 2019 soybean futures settled at $8.94 ¾

·       T-storm Weather®: scattered rain develops Mon.-Tue. in Argentina, but only 0.20”-0.50” occurs, especially in / near western Buenos Aires.  An extended period of mainly dry weather follows until some thunderstorms in 10-14 days

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 31.2 mbu needed; 71.4 last week

·       Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 18.4 mbu needed; 15.5 last week

·       Wire service report notes a recent crop tour of Argentina’s wheat producing areas suggests drought lowered yields significantly.  The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange pegs the crop at 18.5 MMT compared to the latest USDA est. of 20.0

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLG20, +$1.31 $56.44; EBG, +$1.54 @ $62.04; EBG-QCLG+.24; RBG, +.0381; NGG, +.051; HOG, +.0388

·       No change reported for Chicago ethanol @ $1.6050; basis values are from Wednesday:  NYC, +$.0450; Gulf, +$.0350; Dallas, +.0550; Tampa, +$.16; LA, +$.13

·       Ethanol RINs values from Wednesday: 2018’s, @ 5 ½- 6 ½; 2019’s, @ 12 -13; 2020’s, @ 20 -21                                                           &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                      

·       The December RBOB/December ethanol spread pulled in $.0822 at $.1270/gallon Friday     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY           &n​bsp;                  &nb​sp;        

  • Choice boxed beef eased 12-cents on Friday to $232.12 and is 45-cents lower compared to the previous week 
  • December live cattle futures on Fri. traded $122.075—highest price for the contract since 4/24—but ended dn $0.225

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value firmed $1.97 on Friday to $81.17 but is still $1.68 lower versus a week ago

·       December lean hog futures on Friday closed at $62.025, which is $0.800 higher compared to the previous Friday  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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