HIGHLIGHTS

·      TRENDS—Lower:  CZ, -$.0050; SF, -$.0125; WZ, -$.02; KWZ, -$.0175. Del’y: 11/18: RR,17; SB, 35

·      What caught my eye:  Egypt’s Ag Minister expects the country to be import 8-9 MMT of corn this year, against 9.4 MMT in 18/19. Last week, the USDA scaled back its estimate from 10.2 to 9.9.  So far TY, no purchases of U.S. corn have been recorded

·      Trade deal hopes, strong economy support a firm start to Friday’s trading.  ASIA: Undecided--Nikkei, +0.70%; Shanghai, -0.64%; Hang Seng, +0.01%.  EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, +0.09%; FTSE, -0.46%; CAC, +0.28%.  WALL STREET—Futures are firm-- DOW, +55 S&P, +5.75; NAS, +21.75.  EXTERNALS: Dec crude: -$0.20 @ $56.57; Gold: -$6.50 @ $1,467; $ Index: -.006 @ 98.157

• T-storm Weather®: A series of cool fronts and waves of energy trigger t-storms in Argentina and central Brazil over the next two weeks, as an extensive surface-level high pressure system leaves southern Brazil and Paraguay considerably drier than normal.  The most likely result is for favorable weather for corn and soybean planting and growth in South America, though more rain will eventually be needed in at least southern Brazil and Paraguay in December given the current, extensive drought
• CZ,dn $.0050 @ $3.7525; CH, $.0050 @ $3.8425.  Funds bought 2 K in mid-week trading                 
• SF, dn $.0125 @ $9.1550; SH, dn $.0125 @ $9.2825.  Funds: Even SB, sold 1 SBM and bot 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $0.89, -1; LY, $0.95
• WZ, dn $.02 @ $5.0575; WH, dn $.0175 @ $5.0925.  The funds sold 3 K yesterday                

CORN/SORGHUM​

·      CZ2019 closed ½ cents higher at $3.76 ¾, up ½ from a week ago and versus $3.67 ½ for CZ2018 LY

·      Export sales released at 8:30 EST: 16-31 expected, versus 19.2 last week and 32.9 per week needed

·      Weekly ethanol production rises from 1.014 mbpd to 1.030 but fell 3.5%/37 K short of the year ago period.  Inventories fell sharply, off 889 K to 20.99 million barrels and are now 2.5 mb below the 2018 level  

·      Below normal temperatures characterize the Corn Belt the next several days with some rain/snow likely next week  for the Corn Belt and Delta. More limited probability for moisture is forecast westward through the Plains

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Export sales released at 8:30 EST: 29-51 soybeans expected, versus 66.4 last week and 23.8 per week needed.  SBM seen at 100-30, versus 262 K LW and 169 per week needed.  SBO: 5-25 expected, versus 3.8 LW and 11.4/ needed

·      SF2020 edged 1 ½ higher on Thursday to $9.16 ¾, and is down 19 ¾ cents from last Thursday 5 ¼ yesterday and has now declined 12 ¼ cents from a week ago but is $.37 ¾ above above SF2019’s $8.79 close

·      NOPA October crush expected at 166.8 (wide, 157.5-173 range) and versus 152.6 in Sep and 172.3 LY

·      Export sales released at 8:30 EST: 7-18 expected, versus 13.2 last week and 13.4 per week needed

·      WZ2019 slipped $.0125 to $5.07 ¾ on Thursday; is down 4 ¾ from a week ago with yesterday’s close up just $.02 ¼ from a year ago to the day

ENERGY

·      Weaker: CLZ19, -$0.20 @ $56.57; EBF, -$0.42 @ $61.86; EBF-QCLF, -.23; RBZ, -.0115; NGZ, -.016; HOZ, -.0115

·      Chicago ethanol was $.02 higher at $1.5413; basis values were mixed:  NYC, unch @ +$.11375; Gulf, +$.0025 @ +$.10125; Dallas, -$.0150 @ +.05375; Tampa, -$.0250 @ +$.16375; LA, -$.02 @ +$.12875

·      Ethanol RINs were unch/lower: 2018’s, unch @ 5 ½ -6; 2019’s, -0.875 @ 12 -12 ¾; 2020’s, -1.00 @ 22 -23                          &nb​sp;                                                &nbs​p;                        ​;     

·      The December RBOB/December ethanol spread narrowed $.0297 to $.1948/gallon Thursday   

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                      &​nbsp;                 <​/wbr>

·      Choice beef cut-out was down $1.28 Thu @ $241.06 & $2.77 above LW; Select beef was $1.69 lowerr @ $215.84, up $2.82 from LW    

• Early calls have cash cattle steady as $115 reached yesterday; live hogs are called steady—trade deal uncertain

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was down $0.21 Thu. to $86.22 and $6.02 higher than the prior week

·        CME Lean Hog Index was down $.05 on Thursday to $59.05 and down $0.69 from a week ago 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®