HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Lower:  CK, -$.0250; SK, -$.0350; WK, -$.0125; KWK, -$.0050.  Del’y: SBM, 31; SBO, 44; RR, 11; HRW, 7; SB, 199 

·       What caught my eye: The hole keeps getting deeper . . . market now needs nearly 575 million new soybean sales to make the USDA export forecast; that’s 90% more than last year and an all-time high.  Will be interesting to see the WASDE #s on Tuesday

·       Global markets tank.  Asia: DOWN: Nikkei, -2.72%; Shanghai, -1.21%; Hang Seng, -2.32%; EUROPE: DOWN—DAX, -3.51%; FTSE, -3.07%; CAC, -3.54%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Much Lower--DOW, -592; S&P, -76.5; NAS, -241.50.  EXTERNALS: April crude, -$1.90 @ $44.02; Gold: +$20.10 @ $1,688; Mar $ Index, -.905 @ 95.885

• T-storm Weather®: dry and hot weather gradually break in Argentina from Tue.-Wed. forward, resulting in 1.25" to 2.50" of rain across key corn and soybean areas over March 10-19.  Unusual drying continues on the southern ~40% of Brazil second-crop corn production for at least 10 to 12 days when some thunderstorms form, though the setup does not appear to be ideal for heavy rain; soybean harvesting and second-crop corn planting accelerate, but leave corn in need of rain later this month or in April
• CK, dn $.0250 @ $3.7925; CN, dn $.0250 @ $3.8125.  Demand/macro concerns re-emerge, funds sell 6 K   
• SK, dn $0.0350 @ $8.9350; SN, dn $.0250 @ $9.0250.  Funds: Sold 8 SB; 5 SBM; 5 SBO.  Board crush: $0.99 (K/K), 0; LY, $0.98 
• WK, dn $.0125 @ $5.1750; WN, dn $.0175 @ $5.1775.  Fund trading was said to be even Thursday   

    CORN/SORGHUM

·       USDA Supply/Demand report March 10: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn 19/20 carryout is 1.885 bbu v. 1.892 in Feb.

·       USDA Supply/Demand report March 10: Avg. trade guess Brazil corn production, 100.9 MMT (101.0 in Feb); Argentina corn production, 50.1 (50.0 in Feb)

·       T-storm Weather®: in Argentina, mainly dry & hot weather dominate corn through at least Mon.  A stormy period begins Tue.-Wed. & continues for at least one week; most likely scenario is for 1.25”-2.50” of rain over March 10-19

·       Consultant: weather for Brazil safrinha (double crop) corn in southern locations looks questionable, especially for the states of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul & Sao Paulo; these states account for ~35% of safrinha crop & the forecast is dry

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       USDA Supply/Demand report March 10: Avg. trade guess U.S. soybean 19/20 carryout is 0.440 bbu vs. 0.425 in Feb.

·       USDA Supply/Demand report: Avg. guess Brazil soybean crop, 125.0 MMT (125.0 in Feb); Argentina bean, 53.4 (53.0)

·       T-storm Weather®: mainly dry & hot weather dominate Argentina soybeans through at least Mon.  A stormy period begins Tue.-Wed. & continues for at least one week; most likely scenario is for 1.25”-2.50” of rain over March 10-19

·       Consultant: yields of later planted Argentina soybeans could still be impacted if current dry weather pattern persists

·       USDA Supply/Demand report March 10: Avg. trade guess for U.S. wheat 19/20 carryout is 0.943 bbu vs. 0.940 in Feb.

·       T-storm Weather®: 1.50”-3.00” of rain is forecast for U.S. SRW wheat over the next two weeks; field flooding possible

ENERGY

·       DOWN: CLJ20, -$1.90 @ $44.02; EBK, -$2.26 @ $47.73; EBK-QCLK, -.33; RBJ, -.0676; NGJ, -.022; HOJ, -.0572

·       Chicago ethanol was off $.0190 at $1.2550; basis, mostly firm:  NYC, +$.0090 @ $.0950; Gulf, -$.0010 @ $.11; Dallas, +$.0090 @ +$.0950; Tampa, +$.0140 @ +$.1900; LA, +$.0140 @ +$.210

·       Ethanol RINs values, FIRM: 2018’s, +4.625 @ 33½-35 2019’s, +5.75 @ 36 -39; 2020’s, +4.50 @ 38 -42                                           &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;   

·       The April RBOB/April ethanol spread lost $.0297, as it narrowed to $.2648/gallon on Thursday       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY             &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;

• Choice boxed beef firmed 43-cents on Thursday to $207.25, and is $1.71 higher versus last week  
• Moderate cash cattle trading occurred in the North on Thu. at $180-$182 dressed, $4.00-$6.00 lower than last week

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.16 higher on Thu. at $65.84, & is up $2.70 versus a week ago

• CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.33 on Thu. to $56.79.  April futures firmed $1.075 and are $8.585 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®