HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Higher: CZ, +$.0325; SX, +$.0725; WZ, +$.0625; KWZ, +$.0575.  Del’ys: None 

·       What caught my eye: Export sales of both corn and soybeans are off to a record start in 20-21; mid-point trade expectations for this morning’s numbers are well above the implied rates for each

·       Follow-through buying as White House softens its stance on further stimulus deal negotiations

• Asia:  Mixed-- Nikkei, +0.96%; Shanghai, holiday; Hang Seng, -0.20%
• EUROPE: Firmer—DAX, +0.70%; FTSE, +0.53%; CAC, +0.57%
• WALL STREET: Higher-–DOW futures, +113; S&P, +13; NAS, +65.75
• EXTERNALS: Nov crude, +$0.53 @ $40.48; Gold: +$5.50 @ $1,896; Mar $ Index, -0.063 @ 93.590
• T-storm Weather®: Dry (and very mild) weather prevail through Sunday in most U.S. corn and soybean production areas, favoring harvest progress.  Temperatures will be sharply warmer than normal through Tuesday by +10°F to +15°F, with maximums in the 70s-80s and minimums in the 40s-50s across a wide area.  Some rain accompanies a cold front that passes on Monday across the Corn Belt and Plains, but totals in excess of 0.33” will mostly be limited to the Dakotas and northwest Corn Belt
• CZ, up $.0325 @ $3.92; CH, up $.0325 @ $4.0050.  Heavy fund buying again 15 K on good demand        
• SX, up $.0725 @ $10.5825; SF, up $.07 @ $10.5850. Funds: bot 7 SB; bot 1 SBO, 8 SBM. Board crush: $1.10 (V/X), +.08; LY, $0.83
• WZ, up $.0625 @ $6.1375; WH, up $.0525 @ $6.1525.  The funds were buyers of 7 K as Russian dryness remains in the forefront                     

CORN/SORGH​UM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 28 – 59 mbu for 20/21 corn

·       T-storm Weather®: Areas of high pressure limit rainfall beyond early next week across the U.S. Corn Belt.  A cooler period begins Tue., but temps only return to normal with maximums in the 60s-70s and minimums in the 30s-40s

·       ATI Research: While corn exports from the Black Sea improved slightly in the latest week, they remain below last year

·       Ethanol grind: 923,000 barrels/day for week ending Oct. 2—up 42 thou (4.8%) v. last week but 4.2% lower v. 2019

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      ​; Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 55- 92 mbu for 20/21 soybeans; soymeal, (50) - 50 K MT for 19/20 and 150 - 500 for 20/21; soyoil, 0 - 5 for 19/20 and 0 - 30 for 20/21  

·       T-storm Weather®: 66% of expected soybean production in Brazil had less than one-fourth of normal rain over the last 30 days; 1.00”-2.00” of rain is forecast in central Brazil over the next two weeks (~2.00” to ~3.00” is normal)

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CDT.  Trade expects 9 - 22 mbu for 20/21 wheat

·       T-storm Weather®: Dry and mild upper-level high pressure maintains drought in winter wheat areas of Russia over the next two weeks or longer

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLX20, +$0.53 @ $40.48; EBZ, +$0.61 @ $42.60; EBZ-QCLX, +0.12; RBX, +.0173; NGX, -.063; HOX, +.0189

·       Chicago ethanol eased $.01075 at mid-week to $1.41125;  basis, mixed: NYC, -$.00550 @ $.0825; Gulf, -.00175 @ +$.10375; Dallas, +$.00575 @ +$.10375; Tampa, +$.01075 @ +$.19875; LA, +$.00075 @ +$.17375

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +0.50 @ 48 ¾ -49; 2020’s: +0.50 @ 49 ¾ -50; 2021, +0.50 @ 52 ¾ -53                              &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​              

·&nbs​p;      The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol spread is trading $.0260 higher at -$.1781     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                               ​        

• Choice boxed beef firmed $0.64 on Wednesday to $216.88, but is still down $0.86 versus a week ago
• October live cattle futures on Wed. closed at $110.175—the highest settlement price for the contract since Aug. 19
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value jumped $2.36 on Wed. to $93.72, & is $3.33 higher compared to last week
• CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.09 on Wed. to $77.50.  October futures firmed $0.550 but are $0.625 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®