HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—Higher: CZ, +$.0325; SX, +$.0225; WZ, +$.0275; KWZ, +$.0275
· What caught my eye: Shouldn’t be too much of a surprise but in our space analysis with the IA corn yield dropping 5 bpa this month, the estimate for that state went from a 113 million bushel space deficit last fall, to a 93 million SURPLUS in 2020
· Stocks around the globe are mostly firm despite Congressional difficulties in reaching a stimulus agreement
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Asia: Mostly firm-- Nikkei, -0.26%; Shanghai, +2.64%; Hang Seng, +2.20%
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EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, +0.13%; FTSE, -0.02%; CAC, +0.44%
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WALL STREET: Mostly firm-–DOW futures, -3; S&P, +10; NAS, +122
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EXTERNALS: Nov crude, -$0.62 @ $39.98; Gold: +$2.40 @ $1,929; Mar $ Index, +0.090 @ 93.130
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T-storm Weather®: Dry weather prevails across most of the central U.S. over the next 10 to 14 days, except for a few showers in the Corn Belt today. Temperatures turn cooler today as a cold front races across the central U.S. and drops readings by 10°F to 20°F. Thereafter, another cool front is probable to pass around Thursday, turning a wide area cooler than normal and marking an end to ongoing mildness
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CZ, up $.0325 @ $3.9825; CH, up $.03 @ $4.0525. Heavy fund buying as USDA again ignores Chinese corn demand
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SX, up $.0225 @ $10.6775; SF, up $.03 @ $10.6875. Funds: buy 15 SB; 6 SBM, 10 BO. Board crush: $1.09 (V/X), +.03; LY, $0.83
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WZ, up $.0275 @ $5.9650; WH, up $.0250 @ $6.0025. No major surprises on Friday, funds buy 2 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· December 2020 corn futures on Friday closed at $3.95--highest settlement price for the contract since Jan. 29
· ATI Research: Uncertainties persist regarding the USDA’s assessment of Chinese corn situation as imports were left unch at 7.0 MMT in Friday’s Supply/Demand report, even though confirmed U.S. sales to China now total 10.0 MMT
· U.S. corn harvested increases ~8% from Oct. 4-11 to ~32%, but dry weather last week may push this year to 35-40%
· Through Oct. 9, the 2020 crop insurance harvest price for December 2020 corn futures has averaged $3.8539
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Nov. soybean futures on Fri. closed at $10.65 ½--the highest settlement price for nearby futures since March 5, 2018
· ATI Research: With Friday’s sharp decline in projected 20/21 U.S. soybean ending stocks to 290 mbu, South American weather/planting progress will be closely watched in coming weeks along with new daily export sales announcements
· T-storm Weather®: In Brazil, half of normal rainfall is forecast in most soybean producing areas over the next 2 weeks
· Through Oct. 9, the 2020 crop insurance harvest price for November 2020 soybean futures has averaged $10.3946
· KC December wheat futures on Fri. closed at $5.35 ½--highest Fri. settlement price for the contract since July 12, 2019
· T-storm Weather®: Dry, very mild upper-level high pressure suppresses rain near-term in Russia’s winter wheat areas
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLX20, -$0.62 @ $39.98; EBZ, -$0.56 @ $42.29; EBZ-QCLX, +0.07; RBX, -.0153; NGX, +.146; HOX, -.0202
· Chicago ethanol closed up $.0175 Friday at $1.4350; basis, mostly weaker: NYC, -$.0025 @ $.0750; Gulf, -.03850 @ +$.0950; Dallas, -$.0025 @ +$.095; Tampa, -$.0025 @ +$.19; LA, +$.0975 @ +$.2650
· Ethanol RIN values, up: 2019’s, +0.13 @ 48 1/8 -50 5/8; 2020’s: +0.1475 @ 49 ¾-50; 2021’s, +0.1480 @ 52 5/8- 52 1/8        
· The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol spread is trading at -$.2348, off $.0380
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   wbr>
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Choice boxed beef declined $1.94 on Friday to $214.06, and is $4.82 lower versus a week ago
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Cash cattle trade last week was $2.00 higher throughout both the Northern and Southern Plains
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The mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased $0.90 on Fri. to $93.70, but is still $2.40 higher versus last week
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CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.09 on Fri. to $77.71. October futures were up $0.775 & are $0.415 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
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