HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Higher: CN, +$.0450; SN, +$.0575; WN, +$.03; KWN, +$.0050.  Dely: SBM, 243, SBO, 287; HRW, 16; SRW, 61

·       What caught my eye:  On-Farm corn movement in the 3^rd quarter fell 35% versus 2019 to the 2^nd lowest level in 20 years; And percentage-wise, the share of on-farm stocks June 1 was at a 20% high as producers brought selling to a halt

·       Fears coronavirus outbreak may surge weighs on markets.  Asia: Mixed--Nikkei, -0.75%; Shanghai, +1.38%; Hang Seng, holiday; EUROPE: Weaker—DAX, -0.38%; FTSE, -0.51%; CAC, -0.61%.  WALL STREET: Futures, lower --DOW, -90; S&P, -6; NAS, -17.25.   EXTERNALS: Aug crude, +$0.93 @ $40.20; Gold: +$2.40 @ $1,802; Sep $ Index, +.056 @ 97.405

·       T-storm Weather®: southerly winds form upper-level high pressure near-term across the central U.S., dramatically weakening upper-level winds and removing the key feature needed for thunderstorms to organize into large clusters.  As a result, the most likely scenario remains for above and much-above normal temperatures to coincide with below-normal rainfall over the next two weeks for ~80% and ~70% of U.S. corn and soybean production, while bringing occasional rain to spring wheat 

• CN, up $.0450 @ $3.4300; CZU, up $.0375 @ $3.5425.  Lot less acres versus higher stx; acres win, funds buy 30 K                           
• SN, up $.0575 @ $8.90; SX, up $.0425 @ $8.8650.  Funds: Bot 12 SB, 5 SBO, 7 SBM.  Board crush: $0.53 (N/N), -1; LY, $0.96
• WN, up $.03 @ $4.930; WU, up $.0350 @ $4.9525.  The funds buy 6 K as corn soars                     

CORN/SORGHUM

·&n​bsp;      T-storm Weather®: most U.S. corn will be fairly dry first third to half of July, & temps will be warmer to much warmer than normal by +5°F to +10°F (driven by highs near 90°F, but much more-so by much above normal lows in the 70s)

·       ATI Research: new U.S. corn acreage est. of 92.0 million essentially took 1.0 bbu off the production/carry-out numbers the USDA was using, but was partially offset by higher June 1 stocks; carry-out est. for 20/21 corn is now 2.821 bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: corn in Russia and Ukraine experiences sustained heat over the next 10 to 14 days as temperatures average sharply above normal by 8°F to 12°F, and with little rain as upper-level high pressure stagnates

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather®: most U.S. soybeans will be fairly dry first third to half of July, & temps will be warmer to much warmer than normal by +5° to +10°F (driven by highs near 90°, but much more-so by much above normal lows in 70s)

·       ATI Research: adopting USDA’s new soybean acre est. & using 50.5 bpa yield = 4.194bbu crop & carry-out of 0.557bbu

·       T-storm Weather®: waves of energy flow along the northern edge of heat over the first third to half of July to produce near-normal rainfall totals of 1.00” to 2.00” for U.S. spring wheat in the Dakotas and Minnesota

·       ATI Research: after adopting the USDA’s harvested acreage est., crop condition model puts HRS crop size at 0.515 bbu

ENERGY

·       Up: CLQ20, +$0.93 @ $40.20; EBU, +$1.06 @ $42.32; EBU-QCLU, +$0.16; RBQ, +.0389; NGQ, -.035; HOQ, +.0224

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude -0.7 (-8.2); Gasoline -1.6 (-2.5); Distillates -0.4 (+2.6).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.908 mbpd (range: 0.892-0.922).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 21.099 mb (range: 20.800-21.403)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0150 firmer at $1.28; basis, mixed: NYC, -$.0050 @ +$.1350; Gulf, -$.0025 @ +$.1075; Dallas, +$.0125 @ +$.12; Tampa, +$.0275 @ +$.22; LA, unch @ +$.3050

·       Ethanol RIN values, firmer: 2019’s, +3.00 @ 42-44; 2020’s: +1.50 @ 44 -46 ½                                     &nbs​p;                        ​;                         ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;     

·       The Aug RBOB/July ethanol spread closed at +$.0001 yesterday, as RBOB gained $.0160 on ethanol

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  &​nbsp;                    <​/wbr>

• Choice boxed beef was $1.39 lower on Tuesday at $206.97, and is down $4.89 compared to last week   
• Light cash cattle trade occurred on Tue. in the North at $148-$155—$7.00 lower than last week's weighted avg. in NE
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.95 on Tue. to $62.36, but is still $0.11 higher versus a week ago
• CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.01 on Tue. to $45.24.  July futures eased $0.200 and are now $0.065 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®