HIGHLIGHTS

·      TRENDS—Higher: CH, +$.0675; SF, +$.0850; WH, +$0.0750; KWH, +$.0675.  Del’y: SBM, 236; SBO, 139; C, 83; HRW, 2; SRW, 66

·      What caught my eye: Devil in the details with the trade agreement . . . with China’s SB import needs down 8-9 MMT from its historic highs, wondering just what kind of a deal can be negotiated for their annual intake of U.S. beans?

·      China sees improvement in Nov mfg and consumer spending: Mostly lower—Nikkei, -0.29%; Shanghai, +0.56%; Hang Seng, -0.65%; EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.54%; FTSE, +2.00%; CAC, +0.81%.  WALL STREET—Firmer—DOW futures, +54; S&P, +11.00; NAS, +33.75.  EXTERNALS: Feb crude: +$0.75 @ $59.81; Gold: +$0.20 @ $1,481; $ Index, -.146 @ 97.026

·      T-storm Weather®: weekend weather was within expectations as heavy rain in Argentina focused just north of most crops, and the forecast is fairly similar going forward.  More specifically, thunderstorms affect central / northern Brazil and driest areas of Argentina at varying points in time over the next two weeks, but each region will likely be drier than normal.  Conversely, two thunderstorm events this week in southern Brazil and Paraguay limit concerns over a much drier period starting next week

• CH, up $.0675 @ $3.8775; CK, up $.06 @ $3.94.  Fund buying on Friday totaled 5 K
• SF, up $.0850 @ $9.16; SH, up $.0875 @ $9.3025.  Funds activity was not available for Friday.  Board crush: $1.04, o; LY, $.88,-3; 
• WH, up $.0750 @ $5.40; WK, up $.0725 @ $5.42.  The funds bought 2 K to close out the week    

CORN/SORGHUM

·      T-storm Weather®: dry weather prevails this week across the Midwest, including much of the unharvested corn in MI & WI.  Much above-normal temps midweek forward in ND diminishes snowpack, though muddiness limits harvest

·      USDA pegging U.S. grain consuming animal units for 2019/20 at 102.6 million, or 1.8% higher than the previous year

·      Consultant: the 2019/20 Brazil corn production estimate is unchanged at 102.0 MMT with a neutral bias going forward.  Weather in Brazil has generally been favorable for the full-season corn, which is in vegetative development

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Corn, 41.9 mbu needed; 18.9 last week.  Milo—2.2 needed; 1.8 last week

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      Consultant: the 2019/20 Brazil soybean production estimate is unchanged at 123.0 MMT with a neutral bias going forward.  Earliest planted beans in the top producing state of Mato Grosso are flowering, setting pods and filling pods

·      T-storm Weather®: 1.75” to 3.50” of rainfall is forecast over the next two weeks across key soybean areas in central and northern Brazil; 3.50” to 4.50” is normal

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Soybeans, 30.0 mbu needed; 48.8 last week

·      Export Inspections released at 10 am CST; Wheat, 18.9 mbu needed; 11.5 last week

• T-storm Weather®: most U.S. HRW wheat is forecast to remain dry this week, but Delta SRW wheat stays wet

ENERGY

·      Firm: CLG20, -$0.02 @ $59.96; EBG, +$0.04 @ $65.26; EBG-QCLG, +.06; RBG, -.0023; NGG, -.001; HOG, +.0126

·      Chicago ethanol rose $.01625 to $1.405; basis values versus Chicago were mostly firm:  NYC, +$.00125 @ $.13125; Gulf, -$.00875 @ $.13625; Dallas, +$.00125 @ +$.08125; Tampa, +$.00625 @ +$.17125; LA, +$.00625 @ +$.28125

·      Ethanol RINs values were unch/weak: 2018’s, -.25 @ 5 ½ -7; 2019’s, unch @ 12 ½ -12 ¾; 2020’s, -.125 @ 18 ¼ -19                                                &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;          

·      T​he January RBOB/January ethanol spread managed to widen $.0109 on Friday, to $.2952/gallon      

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                     &nb​sp;  

• Choice boxed beef firmed 64-cents on Friday to $216.29 but is still down $8.27 versus the previous week 
• December live cattle futures on Fri. closed at $122.375—the highest settlement price for the contract since April 23

·      USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was up 10-cents on Fri. at $80.94 but is still 49-cents lower v. last week

·      CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.16 on Thu. to $59.88.  February futures gained $0.850 & are $9.620 above the index   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®