HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Higher: CH, +0.03; SF, +$.05; WH, +$.0375; KWH, +$.0275

·       What caught my eye: Not only was yesterday’s 181.6 November NOPA crush a record for Nov but shipments of 1.08 MST were an all-time high, surpassing March 2017’s 1.06 MMT total and raising the yr to yr Oct-Nov gain to a sizable 15% (USDA: -1/2%)

·       Brexit and Covid stimulus deals on the horizon?  Global markets move higher

• Asia: Mostly firm:  Nikkei, +0.26%; Shanghai, -0.01%; Hang Seng, +0.97%
• EUROPE:  Up:  DAX, +1.62%; FTSE, +1.15%; CAC, +0.73% 
• WALL STREET: Another up day?–DOW futures, +97; S&P, +13; NAS, +37
• EXTERNALS: Jan crude, +$0.06 @ $47.68; Gold: +$13.70 @ $1,869; Mar $ Index, -.269 @ 90.140
• T-storm Weather®: Scattered thunderstorms occur in southern Brazil through Sun. (especially today-Thu. & Sat.-Sun.), likely followed by a drier period.  Scattered rain returns to central and northern Brazil within Dec. 21-23 and starts a seasonably-stormy period for 5-7 days.  In Argentina, a round of rainfall occurs Fri.-Sat.; 0.75" to 1.50" remains most probable, with highest totals west (Córdoba & La Pampa) & lowest totals east (Entre Rios & eastern Buenos Aires).  Mainly dry weather precedes and follows
• CH, up $.03 @ $4.2775; CK, up $.0250 @ $4.3025.  The funds bought 3 K in a day of somewhat aimless trading   
• SF, up $.05 @ $11.8925; SH, up $.05 @ $11.9327.  Funds: Bot 7 SB, 6 SBM, 5 SBO. Board crush: $1.01 (F/F), -8; LY, $1.08
• WH, up $.0375 @ $6.0350; WK, up $.03 @ $6.0425.  The funds were buyers of 4 K Tuesday                  

  CORN/SORGHUM

·  &​nbsp;    Consultant: Argentina 20/21 corn crop est. is lowered 1.0 MMT to 47.0 MMT; neutral to lower bias going forward 

·       T-storm Weather®: Rain impacts full-season corn in southern Brazil in varying areas at varying times through Sun.  The first round of rainfall is expected today, and generalized totals of 1.50” to 3.00” are most probable through Dec. 20

·       Ukraine union UGA estimated corn exports could fall to 24.0 MMT in 2020/21 from 30.3 MMT in 2019/20

·       U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled to be released at 9:30 am CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Consultant: Argentina 2020/21 soybean crop est. is lowered 1.0 MMT 48.0 MMT; neutral to lower bias going forward

·       T-storm Weather®:     Only isolated rain occurs across soybeans in central & northern Brazil over the next 5-7 days.  An uptick in rain starts Dec. 21-23, & then continues for 5-7 days; likely result is for 2.50”-4.50” to fall over next 2 weeks

·       ATI Research: Near-term U.S. wheat exports are forecast to remain at 13-17 mbu per week

·       Australia is likely to export a record amount of wheat in December, according to shipping line-up data

ENERGY

·       Mostly firm: CLF21, +$0.06 @ $47.68; EBG, +$0.09 @ $50.85; EBG-CLG, +0.04; RBF, +.0038; NGF, -.025; HOF, -.0041

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude -2.7 (+2.0); Gasoline +1.4 (+0.8); Distillates -0.3 (+4.8).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.982 mbpd (range: 0.965-0.996).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 19.872 mb (range: 19.250 - 22.700)

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0115 firmer at $1.3015/gallon. Basis, all weaker:  NYC, -$0.215 @ $.0710; Gulf, -$.0065 @ +$.0935; Dallas, -$.0065 @ +$.0435; Tampa, -$.0040 @ +$.1435; LA, -$.0165 @ +$.1135

·       Ethanol RINs, firm: 2019’s, +1.25 @ 68 -70; 2020’s, +1.50 @ 70-71; 2021, +1.50 @ 71-73                                                ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;       

·       Th​e Jan RBOB/Jan ethanol spread is $.0047 lower at -$.0046 per gallon  

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               &n​bsp;                       

• Choice boxed beef eased $0.87 on Tuesday to $208.82, and is $16.20 lower compared to a week ago
• Est. for Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed report: Dec. 1 on feed, 100.0%; Placed in Nov., 91.5%; Marketed in Nov., 98.1%
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $3.59 on Tue. to $72.60, and is down $4.85 versus last week
• Lean Hog Index firmed $0.09 on Tue. to $65.06.  February futures increased $0.775 and are $1.39 above the index 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather