Skip to Main Content
Print

TRENDS Higher CH, Up 2, SH, Up 4, WH, Up 5

January 9, 2020 08:18 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       USDA’s Export Sales report for the week ending Jan. 2 is delayed until Jan. 10 due to weather-related closure of USDA on Jan. 7

·       TRENDS—Higher: CH, +$.0225; SH, +$.0525; WH, +$.0450; KWH, +$.05 

·       What caught my eye: Strong global corn demand or so it seems.  Sep-Nov shipments from the 4 majors totals 38.7 MMT; that’s a 5% increase over last year.  And, exports for the all of last year surged 20.4 MMT/15%.  USDA expects 8% decline TY 

·       Tension ease, markets respond. Asia: Up: Nikkei, +2.31%; Shanghai, +0.91%; Hang Seng, +1.68%; EUROPE: Up—DAX, +1.21%; FTSE, +0.50%; CAC, +0.33%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Up—DOW, +90; S&P, +9.25; NAS, +35.50.  EXTERNALS: Mar crude: +$0.18 $59.64; Gold: -11.60 $1,549; $ Index, +.111 @ 97.410.  Del’ys: SBM, 371; SBO, 197; RR, 15; SB, 315

·       T-storm Weather®: rainfall coverage and amounts will be lower over the 7 to 10 days in central and northern Brazil as upper-level high pressure re-forms near Bahia.  Better-organized rains follow in 10 to 14 days as the high weakens, but only near- and below-normal totals are likely through two weeks, and dryness is still fairly widespread.  Conversely, rounds of thunderstorms break drying and / or improve soil moisture in southern Brazil, Paraguay, and much of Argentina with time, including Rio Grande do Sul

  • CH, up $.0225 @ $3.8650; CK, up $.02 @ $3.9325.  Funds bought 2 K at mid-week       
  • SH, up $.0525 @ $9.5250; SK, up $.0450 @ $9.6475.  Funds: bot 2 K SB, 1 SBM, sold 3 SBO.  Board crush: $0.92, -4; LY, $1.02,-3; 
  • WH, up $.0450 @ $5.5725; WK, up $.0425 @ $5.6050.  Funds buy a total of 4 K yesterday             

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Consultant: the breakdown for the 2019/20 Brazilian corn crops is as follows: full-season corn, 25.3 MMT (25% of the total corn crop); safrinha (double crop) corn, 74.5 MMT (74%); and third corn crop, 1.1 MMT (1%)

·       ATI Research: domestic corn futures prices in Brazil recently settled at an all-time high on dry weather in southern corn areas; some talk of the possibility of imports of U.S. corn by poultry producers in the state of Rio Grande do Sul

  • T-storm Weather®: rain begins to break drying Friday for full-season corn in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil as a front passes

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,062,000 barrels/day for week end Jan. 3—down 4,000 v. prior week but up 6.2% v. 2019

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      &nb​sp;Consultant: Brazil 2019/20 soybean production estimate is lowered by 1.0 MMT this week to 122.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias going forward.  Persistent dryness has been noted in northeastern & far southern growing areas    

  • T-storm Weather®: rain begins to break drying over Fri.-Mon. (Jan. 10-13) for soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil when a front slowly passes
  • ATI Research: near-term U.S. wheat exports are forecast at 13-20 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather®: field and/or river flooding impacts U.S. SRW wheat over the next two weeks, but most HRW wheat in the Plains stays fairly dry

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLH20, +$0.18 $59.64; EBH, +$0.13 @ $65.57; EBH-QCLH-.06; RBH, +.0047; NGH, -.025; HOH, -.0025

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0175 lower at $1.2730; basis values versus Chicago mostly firm:  NYC, unch @ $.1245; Gulf, +.0150 @ $.1420; Dallas, +.0025 @ +$.0970; Tampa, +.0075 @ +$.2070; LA, -$.0075 @ +$.2620

·       Ethanol RINs values were firmer: 2018’s, +.50h @ 4-6; 2019’s, +0.6250 @ 8 -8 ¾; 2020’s, +0.3750 @ 14 ½ -14 ¾                                    ​;                                                  ​;                        ​    

·       The February RBOB/February ethanol spread settled $.0554 narrower at $.3138       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   &nbs​p;                   

  • Choice boxed beef was 6-cents lower on Wednesday at $209.50 but is still up 8-cents compared to last week 
  • March feeder cattle futures on Wed. closed at $146.525—the highest settlement price for the contract since Nov. 12

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 90-cents lower on Wed. at $71.83 & is down 24-cents vs. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.18 on Wed. to $59.34.  February futures eased $0.200 but are $9.685 above the index      

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®

 



The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
...

[Message clipped]  View entire message
 
 
 
 
2 Attachments
 
 
 
 
​  
 
 
 
 
 

Back

 

936 South Moore Road, Rochelle, IL 61068
(815) 562 - 8723 | Fax: (815) 562 - 7543 | Privacy Policy

facebook twitter 100px-Instagram_logo_2016.svg LinkedIn

© Maplehurst Farms. All Rights Reserved. Disclaimer | View Mobile Site
The risk of loss in trading commodity futures contracts can be substantial.
You should, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

Market, News and Weather information provided by

image001

 

close (X)