HIGHLIGHTS

·       USDA’s Export Sales report for the week ending Jan. 2 is delayed until Jan. 10 due to weather-related closure of USDA on Jan. 7

·       TRENDS—Higher: CH, +$.0225; SH, +$.0525; WH, +$.0450; KWH, +$.05 

·       What caught my eye: Strong global corn demand or so it seems.  Sep-Nov shipments from the 4 majors totals 38.7 MMT; that’s a 5% increase over last year.  And, exports for the all of last year surged 20.4 MMT/15%.  USDA expects 8% decline TY 

·       Tension ease, markets respond. Asia: Up: Nikkei, +2.31%; Shanghai, +0.91%; Hang Seng, +1.68%; EUROPE: Up—DAX, +1.21%; FTSE, +0.50%; CAC, +0.33%.  WALL STREET: Futures, Up—DOW, +90; S&P, +9.25; NAS, +35.50.  EXTERNALS: Mar crude: +$0.18 @ $59.64; Gold: -11.60 @ $1,549; $ Index, +.111 @ 97.410.  Del’ys: SBM, 371; SBO, 197; RR, 15; SB, 315

·       T-storm Weather®: rainfall coverage and amounts will be lower over the 7 to 10 days in central and northern Brazil as upper-level high pressure re-forms near Bahia.  Better-organized rains follow in 10 to 14 days as the high weakens, but only near- and below-normal totals are likely through two weeks, and dryness is still fairly widespread.  Conversely, rounds of thunderstorms break drying and / or improve soil moisture in southern Brazil, Paraguay, and much of Argentina with time, including Rio Grande do Sul

• CH, up $.0225 @ $3.8650; CK, up $.02 @ $3.9325.  Funds bought 2 K at mid-week       
• SH, up $.0525 @ $9.5250; SK, up $.0450 @ $9.6475.  Funds: bot 2 K SB, 1 SBM, sold 3 SBO.  Board crush: $0.92, -4; LY, $1.02,-3; 
• WH, up $.0450 @ $5.5725; WK, up $.0425 @ $5.6050.  Funds buy a total of 4 K yesterday             

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Consultant: the breakdown for the 2019/20 Brazilian corn crops is as follows: full-season corn, 25.3 MMT (25% of the total corn crop); safrinha (double crop) corn, 74.5 MMT (74%); and third corn crop, 1.1 MMT (1%)

·       ATI Research: domestic corn futures prices in Brazil recently settled at an all-time high on dry weather in southern corn areas; some talk of the possibility of imports of U.S. corn by poultry producers in the state of Rio Grande do Sul

• T-storm Weather®: rain begins to break drying Friday for full-season corn in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil as a front passes

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,062,000 barrels/day for week end Jan. 3—down 4,000 v. prior week but up 6.2% v. 2019

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·      &nb​sp;Consultant: Brazil 2019/20 soybean production estimate is lowered by 1.0 MMT this week to 122.0 MMT with a neutral to lower bias going forward.  Persistent dryness has been noted in northeastern & far southern growing areas    

• T-storm Weather®: rain begins to break drying over Fri.-Mon. (Jan. 10-13) for soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil when a front slowly passes
• ATI Research: near-term U.S. wheat exports are forecast at 13-20 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather®: field and/or river flooding impacts U.S. SRW wheat over the next two weeks, but most HRW wheat in the Plains stays fairly dry

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLH20, +$0.18 @ $59.64; EBH, +$0.13 @ $65.57; EBH-QCLH, -.06; RBH, +.0047; NGH, -.025; HOH, -.0025

·       Chicago ethanol was $.0175 lower at $1.2730; basis values versus Chicago mostly firm:  NYC, unch @ $.1245; Gulf, +.0150 @ $.1420; Dallas, +.0025 @ +$.0970; Tampa, +.0075 @ +$.2070; LA, -$.0075 @ +$.2620

·       Ethanol RINs values were firmer: 2018’s, +.50h @ 4-6; 2019’s, +0.6250 @ 8 -8 ¾; 2020’s, +0.3750 @ 14 ½ -14 ¾                                    ​;                                                  ​;                        ​    

·       The February RBOB/February ethanol spread settled $.0554 narrower at $.3138       

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   &nbs​p;                   

• Choice boxed beef was 6-cents lower on Wednesday at $209.50 but is still up 8-cents compared to last week 
• March feeder cattle futures on Wed. closed at $146.525—the highest settlement price for the contract since Nov. 12

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 90-cents lower on Wed. at $71.83 & is down 24-cents vs. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.18 on Wed. to $59.34.  February futures eased $0.200 but are $9.685 above the index      

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®