HIGHLIGHTS

·       TRENDS—Generally Weaker: CU, -$.0050; SQ, -$.0025; WU, +$.0675; KWU, +$.06 

·       What caught my eye:   Trade optimism over the potential size of the U.S. corn and soybean crops aside, one weather forecaster reminds us the next 10-14 days are likely to be on the warm/dry side and yields may struggle to achieve record levels

·       Global equities mostly firm, up-coming Fed comments; coronavirus aid package.  Asia—Mostly firm:  Nikkei, -1.15%; Shanghai, +2.06%; Hang Seng, +0.45%; EUROPE: Mostly firm—DAX, -0.08%; FTSE, +0.31%; CAC, +0.65%.  WALL STREET: Futures, firm --DOW, +14; S&P, +6; NAS, +51.5.  EXTERNALS: Sep crude, +$0.43 @ $41.47; Gold: +$5.90 @ $1,951; Sep $ Index, -.177 @ 93.470

·       T-storm Weather®: two areas of high pressure leave a wide swath of the central U.S. slightly to moderately cooler than normal over the next 10 days.  Little to no rain falls over that period in northern areas, while a swath of heavy rain affects the southern third of corn and soybeans later this week and weekend as a slow-moving system crawls along edge of coolness.  Wettest weather is expected to extend from KS and points east through the Delta & southern Corn Belt (AR, KY, southern MO, TN, southern IL) 

• CU, dn $.0050 @ $3.1950; CZ, dn $.0025 @ $3.2975.  The funds sold 18 K yesterday—crop ratings                                  
• ​ SQ, dn $.0025 @ $8.9650; SX, dn $.0050 @ $8.87.  Funds: Sold 11 SB, 4 SBM, 3 SBO.  Board crush: $0.62 (Q/Q),-1; LY, $0.96
• WU, up $.0675 @ $5.3025; WZ, dn $.0575 @ $5.36.  SRW funding selling was pegged at 5 K yesterday          

CORN/SORGHUM

·   &nb​sp;   T-storm Weather®: warmer period unfolds west to east Aug. 5-6 for U.S. Corn Belt as a system moves across southern Canada.  Rain also results as the system approaches & passes, but low humidities likely limit coverage & amounts

·       ATI Research: the U.S. is likely to face about the same amount of corn export competition during the first half of the 20/21 crop year (Sep-Feb), according to the USDA

·       T-storm Weather®: approx. half of corn was drier than normal over the last 30 days in the E.U. and Ukraine; below to much-below normal rainfall affects corn in much of the E.U., Russia, and Ukraine over the next 10 to 14 days

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       T-storm Weather®: warmer period unfolds west to east Aug. 5-6 for U.S. Corn Belt as a system moves across southern Canada.  Rain also results as the system approaches & passes, but low humidities likely limit coverage & amounts

·       ATI Research: near-term exports of U.S. soybeans are projected to range from 20-25 mbu per week

·       T-storm Weather®: wheat in much of Australia is again experiencing drought with key periods of the season to begin in two to six weeks, but with only minor rain on the horizon in 10 to 14 days

·       ATI Research: near-term exports of U.S. wheat are projected to range from 16-20 mbu per week

ENERGY

·       Mixed:  CLU20, +$0.43 @ $41.47; EBU, +$0.58 @ $43.80; EBU-QCLU, +0.15; RBU, -.0006; NGU, -.020; HOU, +.0118

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude +0.4 (-6.8); Gasoline -0.7 (+1.1); Distillates -0.3 (+1.3).  Estimates for ethanol production avg. 0.916 mbpd (range: 0.899-0.940).  Avg. est. of ethanol stocks: 19.984 mb (range: 19.450-20.500)

·       Chicago ethanol eased $.0125 yesterday tp $1.2850; basis, all firmer: NYC, +$.00125 @ +$.08; Gulf, +$.0125 @ +$.10; Dallas, -$.0025 @ +$.0175; Tampa, +$.0125 @ +$.19; LA, +$.0175 @ +$.1350

·       Ethanol RIN values, steady/weaker: 2019’s, -unch @ 45-46; 2020’s: -.1250 @ 47 -48                                            &nbs​p;                     &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;          

·  &nb​sp;    The Aug RBOB/August ethanol spread gave up $.0591 Tuesday as it tightened to $.0656/gallon, premium RBOB

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                             &​nbsp;         <​/wbr>

• Choice boxed beef was $0.41 higher on Tuesday at $202.96, and is up $2.08 versus a week ago
• Some cattle traded for $95 to $97 on Tue. in KS & TX; upper end of trade puts prices up $1.00-$2.00 so far this week
• The mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.70 on Tuesday to $68.81, and is $3.14 lower compared to last week
• CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.87 on Tue. to $51.12.  August futures eased $0.350 but are $3.080 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®