HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—firm: CK, +$.0375; SK, +$.0650; WK, +$.02; KWK, +$.0350. Del’y: SBM, 253; SBO, 7; RR, 26; C, 147; SB, 7; W, 50
· What caught my eye: Soybean sales continue to languish; this week’s 11.1 total pulled the 4-week average down to 13.6 per week, a 6-year seasonal low and about ½ the period average. China has just 2 mbu on the books, down from 257 million LY
· Europe/U.S. Stock indices turn higher in early morning trade. Asia: DOWN: Nikkei, -6.08%; Shanghai, -1.23%; Hang Seng, -1.14%; EUROPE: Rebounding—DAX, +3.48%; FTSE, +4.58%; CAC, +4.08. WALL STREET: Futures, higher?--DOW, +766; S&P, +93.75; NAS, +315.5. EXTERNALS: April crude, +$1.65 @ $33.15; Gold: -$2.00 @ $1,588; Mar $ Index, -.905 @ 95.885
· T-storm Weather®: Heavy rains in Argentina substantially eased dryness in key corn and soybean areas of northern Buenos Aires. Several additional rains follow within a wide area through next week as the more-than three-week drought and two-week heat wave ends. Dry and hot weather continues for the southern ~40% of Brazil corn until Tue.-Thu., with more storms the following 5-7 days. Northern corn north turns wetter as tropical waves of energy trigger occasional t-storms
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CK, up $.0375 @ $3.6950; CN, up $.0350 @ $3.7225. More pandemic concerns, funds sell 15 K
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SK, up $0.0650 @ $8.66; SN, up $.0675 @ $8.75. Funds: Sold 10 SB; 2 SBM; 8 SBO. Board crush: $0.97 (K/K), +4; LY, $0.99
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WK, up $.02 @ $5.0750; WN, up $.0225 @ $5.09. Fund selling estimated at 5 K on Thursday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Export corn sales of 57.9 mbu were a marketing year high, exceeding the high end of trade expectations in the 24-47 range. Near term exports are expected to average in the 35-44 mbu range, versus 39 per week last spring
· Solid milo export sales of 10.2 mbu with 9.7 sold to China/Unknown; versus only 2.3 per week needed
· May corn closed at a contract low of $3.65 ¾ or 4 ½ cents below CK2019 close a yea-ago to the day
· T-storm Weather®: This winter was #14 mildest of the last 120 years in the Corn Belt, which is associated with slightly increased odds for a below-trend yield for corn and soybeans
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Soybean export sales continue weak, just 11.1 yesterday with 15-29 expected and 22.5/wk needed
· Soybean oil has performed the poorest the past 10 trading days, losing 8%/$.0230/lb with SMK off $2.80/0.9% per ST and SK dropping 33 ¼ cents/3.7% to $8.59 ½ per bushel as of yesterday
· SK20 closed at $8.59 ½ Thursday, also a contract low and $.39/bu below SK19’s year close
· Export meal demand cranking up! Shipments averaging near 300 K MT/wk, a record for mid-Feb/mid-March
· Wheat export sales of 16.6 were slightly above mid-range (7-22) and exceeded the 10.1/wk implied rate
· T-storm Weather®: Current situation is neutral and is expected to continue the next 6. Three years behaved similarly and a review of U.S. yields in those years (and the wet forecast) favor at least an average HRW wheat crop
ENERGY
· Up: CLJ20, +$1.65 @ $33.15; EBK, +$2.00 @ $35.21; EBK-QCLK, +.44; RBJ, +.0961; NGJ, +.072; HOJ, +.0135
· Chicago ethanol was lost $.0475 at $1.18; basis, mostly firm: NYC, -$.0125 @ $.09; Gulf, +$.0075 @ $.0950; Dallas, +$.0075 @ +$.1050; Tampa, +$.0075 @ +$.2150; LA, +$.0325 @ +$.2550
· Ethanol RINs values, Down: 2018’s, -4.00 @ 25-27; 2019’s, -6.75 @ 23 ½ -25; 2020’s, -5.75 @ 24 -32 ½    
· The April RBOB/April ethanol spread is trading at a $.1949 inverse this morning
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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Choice boxed beef lost $1.16 yesterday, slipping to $206.01, and is $1.24 lower versus last week
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Cash cattle trading was very quiet, giving the appearance that just a little clean-up business to be transacted on Friday
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $0.78 higher on Thu. at $68.34, & is up $2.50 versus a week ago
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CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.57 on Thu. to $58.32. April futures closed down $3.000 at $60.875 and are $2.555 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
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