TR ENDS Down CN,Down 4, SN, Down 12, WN, Down 6
May 4, 2020 08:00 AM
HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—Down: CN, -$.0575; SN, 0$.1250; WN, -$.1025; KWN, -$.0725. Dely: SBM, 3; BO, 167; RR, 7; C, 199; HRW, 4
· What caught my eye: markets are down rather sharply as U.S./Chinese trade tensions escalate; heightened concern this could put the completion of the trade agreement in jeopardy
· U.S., China, coronavirus tensions escalate; Omaha Oracle exits airlines. Asia: Weaker-- Nikkei, NA; Shanghai, NA; Hang Seng, -4.18%; EUROPE: Down—DAX, -3.16%; FTSE, -0.14; CAC, -3.75%. WALL STREET: Futures, Down--DOW, -251; S&P, -22.5; NAS, -63.75. EXTERNALS: June crude, -$1.60 @ $18.18; Gold: +$18.90 @ $1,684; Sep $ Index, +0.355 @ 99.485
· T-storm Weather®: despite some showers and thunderstorms at times over the next 10 days as several cold fronts pass, most of the central U.S. will be drier than normal. A very cool period also affects a wide area, especially in the Corn Belt where minimums bottom-out near freezing Fri. & Sat. A sharply warmer period immediately follows from May 13-14 forward as series of systems approach, likely producing substantial rainfall within May 14- 17 in the Corn Belt, Delta and on at least some HRW wheat in Plains
-
CN, dn $.0575 @ $3.1275; CU, dn $.06 @ $3.1950. The funds ended the week by selling 1 K
-
SN, dn $.1250 @ $8.37; SQ, dn $.1225 @ $8.3850. Funds sold 3 K SB, 3 K SBM, 1 K SBO. Board crush: $0.73 (K/K), -2; LY, $1.12
-
WN, dn $.1025 @ $5.0625; WU, dn $.09 @ $5.1125. Fund selling on Friday estimated at 5 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· Mixed ideas on U.S. corn planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report. Consensus is it could be near 45-48% compared to v. 27% last week, 21% last year & the 5-year avg. of 39%
· T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”; temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 47.1 mbu needed; 42.4 last week. Milo—5.0 needed; 8.9 last week
· T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, second-crop corn stays dry through Tue. A brief round of thunderstorms follows Wed.-Thu. and produces scattered 0.25”-0.50” totals; a dry period follows until some thunderstorms return May 12-13
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Mixed ideas on U.S. soybean planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report. Consensus is it could be near 18-20% compared to v. 8% last week, 5% last year & the 5-year avg. of 11%
· T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”; temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 30.3 mbu needed; 20.4 last week
· Winter wheat ratings in Crop Progress report expected to hold steady at 54% G/E, vs. 64% LY and 51% for the average
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT: Wheat, 31.7 needed; 18.4 last week
ENERGY
· Weak: CLM20, -$1.60 @ $18.18; EBN, -$0.79 @ $25.65; EBN-QCLN, +$0.29; RBM, -.0151; NGM, +.066; HOM, -.0007
· Chicago ethanol slipped $.0125 on Friday to $.97375/gallon; basis, mixed: NYC, -$.03125 @ +$.04875; Gulf, +$.01 @ $.07625; Dallas, -$.00875 @ +$.10125; Tampa, -$.01375 @ +$.16625; LA, +$.00125@ +$.16625
· Ethanol RINs values, unch/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 22 ½ -24 ½; 2019’s, +0.25 @ 31 ¾ -32 ¾ 2020’s: unch @ 36 ½ -37      
· The June RBOB/May ethanol inverse lost $.0735 on Friday to close at $.2477/gallon, premium ethanol
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   </wbr>
-
Choice boxed beef increased $9.89 on Friday to $377.45, and is $84.08 higher compared to last week
-
From Friday to Friday, June live cattle futures was up $4.63
-
USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $6.49 higher on Fri. at $105.52, & is up $29.58 versus a week ago
-
CME Lean Hog Index firmed $2.57 on Fri. to $57.27. May futures climbed $3.750 and are $5.605 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
2 Attachments
HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—Down: CN, -$.0575; SN, 0$.1250; WN, -$.1025; KWN, -$.0725. Dely: SBM, 3; BO, 167; RR, 7; C, 199; HRW, 4
· What caught my eye: markets are down rather sharply as U.S./Chinese trade tensions escalate; heightened concern this could put the completion of the trade agreement in jeopardy
· U.S., China, coronavirus tensions escalate; Omaha Oracle exits airlines. Asia: Weaker-- Nikkei, NA; Shanghai, NA; Hang Seng, -4.18%; EUROPE: Down—DAX, -3.16%; FTSE, -0.14; CAC, -3.75%. WALL STREET: Futures, Down--DOW, -251; S&P, -22.5; NAS, -63.75. EXTERNALS: June crude, -$1.60 @ $18.18; Gold: +$18.90 @ $1,684; Sep $ Index, +0.355 @ 99.485
· T-storm Weather®: despite some showers and thunderstorms at times over the next 10 days as several cold fronts pass, most of the central U.S. will be drier than normal. A very cool period also affects a wide area, especially in the Corn Belt where minimums bottom-out near freezing Fri. & Sat. A sharply warmer period immediately follows from May 13-14 forward as series of systems approach, likely producing substantial rainfall within May 14- 17 in the Corn Belt, Delta and on at least some HRW wheat in Plains
-
CN, dn $.0575 @ $3.1275; CU, dn $.06 @ $3.1950. The funds ended the week by selling 1 K
-
SN, dn $.1250 @ $8.37; SQ, dn $.1225 @ $8.3850. Funds sold 3 K SB, 3 K SBM, 1 K SBO. Board crush: $0.73 (K/K), -2; LY, $1.12
-
WN, dn $.1025 @ $5.0625; WU, dn $.09 @ $5.1125. Fund selling on Friday estimated at 5 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· Mixed ideas on U.S. corn planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report. Consensus is it could be near 45-48% compared to v. 27% last week, 21% last year & the 5-year avg. of 39%
· T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”; temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 47.1 mbu needed; 42.4 last week. Milo—5.0 needed; 8.9 last week
· T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, second-crop corn stays dry through Tue. A brief round of thunderstorms follows Wed.-Thu. and produces scattered 0.25”-0.50” totals; a dry period follows until some thunderstorms return May 12-13
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ; Mixed ideas on U.S. soybean planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report. Consensus is it could be near 18-20% compared to v. 8% last week, 5% last year & the 5-year avg. of 11%
· T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”; temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 30.3 mbu needed; 20.4 last week
· Winter wheat ratings in Crop Progress report expected to hold steady at 54% G/E, vs. 64% LY and 51% for the average
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT: Wheat, 31.7 needed; 18.4 last week
ENERGY
· Weak: CLM20, -$1.60 @ $18.18; EBN, -$0.79 @ $25.65; EBN-QCLN, +$0.29; RBM, -.0151; NGM, +.066; HOM, -.0007
· Chicago ethanol slipped $.0125 on Friday to $.97375/gallon; basis, mixed: NYC, -$.03125 @ +$.04875; Gulf, +$.01 @ $.07625; Dallas, -$.00875 @ +$.10125; Tampa, -$.01375 @ +$.16625; LA, +$.00125@ +$.16625
· Ethanol RINs values, unch/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 22 ½ -24 ½; 2019’s, +0.25 @ 31 ¾ -32 ¾ 2020’s: unch @ 36 ½ -37      
· The June RBOB/May ethanol inverse lost $.0735 on Friday to close at $.2477/gallon, premium ethanol
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
-
Choice boxed beef increased $9.89 on Friday to $377.45, and is $84.08 higher compared to last week
-
From Friday to Friday, June live cattle futures was up $4.63
-
USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $6.49 higher on Fri. at $105.52, & is up $29.58 versus a week ago
-
CME Lean Hog Index firmed $2.57 on Fri. to $57.27. May futures climbed $3.750 and are $5.605 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
2 Attachments
HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—Down: CN, -$.0575; SN, 0$.1250; WN, -$.1025; KWN, -$.0725. Dely: SBM, 3; BO, 167; RR, 7; C, 199; HRW, 4
· What caught my eye: markets are down rather sharply as U.S./Chinese trade tensions escalate; heightened concern this could put the completion of the trade agreement in jeopardy
· U.S., China, coronavirus tensions escalate; Omaha Oracle exits airlines. Asia: Weaker-- Nikkei, NA; Shanghai, NA; Hang Seng, -4.18%; EUROPE: Down—DAX, -3.16%; FTSE, -0.14; CAC, -3.75%. WALL STREET: Futures, Down--DOW, -251; S&P, -22.5; NAS, -63.75. EXTERNALS: June crude, -$1.60 @ $18.18; Gold: +$18.90 @ $1,684; Sep $ Index, +0.355 @ 99.485
· T-storm Weather®: despite some showers and thunderstorms at times over the next 10 days as several cold fronts pass, most of the central U.S. will be drier than normal. A very cool period also affects a wide area, especially in the Corn Belt where minimums bottom-out near freezing Fri. & Sat. A sharply warmer period immediately follows from May 13-14 forward as series of systems approach, likely producing substantial rainfall within May 14- 17 in the Corn Belt, Delta and on at least some HRW wheat in Plains
-
CN, dn $.0575 @ $3.1275; CU, dn $.06 @ $3.1950. The funds ended the week by selling 1 K
-
SN, dn $.1250 @ $8.37; SQ, dn $.1225 @ $8.3850. Funds sold 3 K SB, 3 K SBM, 1 K SBO. Board crush: $0.73 (K/K), -2; LY, $1.12
-
WN, dn $.1025 @ $5.0625; WU, dn $.09 @ $5.1125. Fund selling on Friday estimated at 5 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· Mixed ideas on U.S. corn planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report. Consensus is it could be near 45-48% compared to v. 27% last week, 21% last year & the 5-year avg. of 39%
· T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”; temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 47.1 mbu needed; 42.4 last week. Milo—5.0 needed; 8.9 last week
· T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, second-crop corn stays dry through Tue. A brief round of thunderstorms follows Wed.-Thu. and produces scattered 0.25”-0.50” totals; a dry period follows until some thunderstorms return May 12-13
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Mixed ideas on U.S. soybean planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report. Consensus is it could be near 18-20% compared to v. 8% last week, 5% last year & the 5-year avg. of 11%
· T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”; temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 30.3 mbu needed; 20.4 last week
· Winter wheat ratings in Crop Progress report expected to hold steady at 54% G/E, vs. 64% LY and 51% for the average
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT: Wheat, 31.7 needed; 18.4 last week
ENERGY
· Weak: CLM20, -$1.60 @ $18.18; EBN, -$0.79 @ $25.65; EBN-QCLN, +$0.29; RBM, -.0151; NGM, +.066; HOM, -.0007
· ; Chicago ethanol slipped $.0125 on Friday to $.97375/gallon; basis, mixed: NYC, -$.03125 @ +$.04875; Gulf, +$.01 @ $.07625; Dallas, -$.00875 @ +$.10125; Tampa, -$.01375 @ +$.16625; LA, +$.00125@ +$.16625
· Ethanol RINs values, unch/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 22 ½ -24 ½; 2019’s, +0.25 @ 31 ¾ -32 ¾ 2020’s: unch @ 36 ½ -37      
· The June RBOB/May ethanol inverse lost $.0735 on Friday to close at $.2477/gallon, premium ethanol
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
-
Choice boxed beef increased $9.89 on Friday to $377.45, and is $84.08 higher compared to last week
-
From Friday to Friday, June live cattle futures was up $4.63
-
USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $6.49 higher on Fri. at $105.52, & is up $29.58 versus a week ago
-
CME Lean Hog Index firmed $2.57 on Fri. to $57.27. May futures climbed $3.750 and are $5.605 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather®
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. All information, publications, and material used and distributed by Advance Trading Inc. shall be construed as a solicitation. ATI does not maintain an independent research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. Information obtained from third-party sources is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Advance Trading Inc. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
2 Attachments
HIGHLIGHTS
· TRENDS—Down: CN, -$.0575; SN, 0$.1250; WN, -$.1025; KWN, -$.0725. Dely: SBM, 3; BO, 167; RR, 7; C, 199; HRW, 4
· What caught my eye: markets are down rather sharply as U.S./Chinese trade tensions escalate; heightened concern this could put the completion of the trade agreement in jeopardy
· U.S., China, coronavirus tensions escalate; Omaha Oracle exits airlines. Asia: Weaker-- Nikkei, NA; Shanghai, NA; Hang Seng, -4.18%; EUROPE: Down—DAX, -3.16%; FTSE, -0.14; CAC, -3.75%. WALL STREET: Futures, Down--DOW, -251; S&P, -22.5; NAS, -63.75. EXTERNALS: June crude, -$1.60 @ $18.18; Gold: +$18.90 @ $1,684; Sep $ Index, +0.355 @ 99.485
· T-storm Weather®: despite some showers and thunderstorms at times over the next 10 days as several cold fronts pass, most of the central U.S. will be drier than normal. A very cool period also affects a wide area, especially in the Corn Belt where minimums bottom-out near freezing Fri. & Sat. A sharply warmer period immediately follows from May 13-14 forward as series of systems approach, likely producing substantial rainfall within May 14- 17 in the Corn Belt, Delta and on at least some HRW wheat in Plains
-
CN, dn $.0575 @ $3.1275; CU, dn $.06 @ $3.1950. The funds ended the week by selling 1 K
-
SN, dn $.1250 @ $8.37; SQ, dn $.1225 @ $8.3850. Funds sold 3 K SB, 3 K SBM, 1 K SBO. Board crush: $0.73 (K/K), -2; LY, $1.12
-
WN, dn $.1025 @ $5.0625; WU, dn $.09 @ $5.1125. Fund selling on Friday estimated at 5 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· Mixed ideas on U.S. corn planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report. Consensus is it could be near 45-48% compared to v. 27% last week, 21% last year & the 5-year avg. of 39%
· T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”; temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Corn, 47.1 mbu needed; 42.4 last week. Milo—5.0 needed; 8.9 last week
· T-storm Weather®: in Brazil, second-crop corn stays dry through Tue. A brief round of thunderstorms follows Wed.-Thu. and produces scattered 0.25”-0.50” totals; a dry period follows until some thunderstorms return May 12-13
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
·  Mixed ideas on U.S. soybean planting progress in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report. Consensus is it could be near 18-20% compared to v. 8% last week, 5% last year & the 5-year avg. of 11%
· T-storm Weather®: a cool front triggers widespread showers & some thunderstorms today-Tue., producing scattered 0.25”-0.75”; temps then turn sharply colder, & remain much colder than normal across/adjacent Corn Belt for 1 week
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT; Soybeans, 30.3 mbu needed; 20.4 last week
· Winter wheat ratings in Crop Progress report expected to hold steady at 54% G/E, vs. 64% LY and 51% for the average
· Export Inspections released at 10 am CDT: Wheat, 31.7 needed; 18.4 last week
ENERGY
· Weak: CLM20, -$1.60 @ $18.18; EBN, -$0.79 @ $25.65; EBN-QCLN, +$0.29; RBM, -.0151; NGM, +.066; HOM, -.0007
· Chicago ethanol slipped $.0125 on Friday to $.97375/gallon; basis, mixed: NYC, -$.03125 @ +$.04875; Gulf, +$.01 @ $.07625; Dallas, -$.00875 @ +$.10125; Tampa, -$.01375 @ +$.16625; LA, +$.00125@ +$.16625
· Ethanol RINs values, unch/firm: 2018’s, unch @ 22 ½ -24 ½; 2019’s, +0.25 @ 31 ¾ -32 ¾ 2020’s: unch @ 36 ½ -37