HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CORN: CZ, Down $.005; SOYBEANS: SX, Up $.015 WHEAT: WZ, Up $.0125; KWZ: Up $.0125
· World stocks are mostly weaker today. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 1.4%, the Shanghai Composite Index eased 0.2% and Australia’s S&P/ASX was down 0.4%. Japan’s Nikkei was an exception to the trend as it closed 0.2% higher. At midday in Europe, however, the markets are lower with the FTSE 100 down 0.38% and DAX off 0.21%. Pre-opening trends in the U.S. are mixed: DOW, +4; NAS, -7; S&P, -2. Outside markets: the $ Index is up .174 lower @ 99.25; gold is $4.88 higher at $1,092.78; and Dec crude is up $.17 @ $44.04/bl
· T-storm Weather: Mainly dry & hot upper-level high pressure dominates Center-West Brazil & Bahia over the next week. Waves of energy pass to the south, resulting in near- or above-normal rainfall across Argentina, Paraguay, & much of southern & eastern Brazil. Changes occur as next week progresses and a cool front dissipates near Center-West Brazil, resulting in a gradual increase in thunderstorms with near-normal rainfall most probable. Therefore, concern over dryness and heat this week remains limited
· Dec Corn Down $.005 at $3.6625; Mar Down $.01 at $3.75. Funds sold 8 K Monday
· Nov SB Up $.015 at $8.75; Jan Up $.0125 at $8.675. Fund activity: even SB; even SBM; and sold 3 K SBO. Del’y: 73 SB
· Dec Wheat Up $.0125 at $5.03; Mar Up $.01 at $5.065. The funds were sold 8 K inMonday’s trade
CORN/SORGHUM           </p>
· USDA WASDE 11:00 am CST: Avg. trade guess 2015 U.S. corn crop: 13.564 bbu (range 13.390-13.678) & 13.555 in Oct.
· USDA WASDE 11:00 am CST: Avg. trade est U.S. corn carryout--15/16, 1.597 bbu (range 1.461-1.702) & 1.561 in Oct.
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout unchanged at 1.705 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout unchanged at 25 mbu
· USDA Crop Progress—corn harvest at 93% vs. 78% last year and 88% for the 5-year avg; sorghum harvest at 85% vs. 74% in 2014 and the 82% average
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA WASDE 11:00 am CST: Avg. trade guess 2015 U.S. soybean crop: 3.914 bbu (range 3.895-3.955) & 3.888 in Oct.
· USDA WASDE 11:00 am CST: Avg. trade est U.S. soybean carryout--15/16, 0.435 bbu (0.353-0.476), 0.425 in Oct.
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout is unchanged at 401 mbu
· USDA Crop Progress—soybean harvest at 95%, which is above last year’s 89% and higher than the 5-year avg. of 93%
· USDA WASDE 11:00 AM CST: Avg. trade est U.S. wheat carryout--15/16, 0.869 (range of 0.761-0.914) & 0.861 in Oct.
· USDA Crop Progress, winter wheat planting: 92% vs. 88% last week, 93% last year and the 5-year average of 94%
· ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat balance sheet, 15/16 carryout at 404 mbu vs. 295 million for 14/15
ENERGY
· Higher: CLZ15, +$0.17, $44.04; EBZ,-$0.01; EBZ-CLZ, $2.92, -$.16; RBZ, -$.0072; NGZ, +$.015; HOZ, -$.0035
· Cash ethanol markets were weaker on Monday: Chicago down ½; New York off 1; Gulf eased ¾; Tampa declined 2; Dallas eased 2 ¾; and LA was 1 ½ lower at $1.63 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs firmer: 2014’s up ½ at 42 -42 ½; 2015’s gained ½ to 41 ½-42; and 2016’s climbed ¾ to 42-42 ½
· The Dec RBOB/Dec Ethanol inverse is trading at -$.148 per gallon on Tuesday morning (-.0095 vs. Monday)
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
·   Choice boxed beef values gained 79-cents Monday but are still down $3.16 compared to a week ago
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $5.81 last week to $130.41/cwt and is $36.20 lower vs. last year
· On Monday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed $1.03 but is $3.06 lower vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index $2.06 lower at $62.55. December futures $1.275 lower and are $8.825 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com