HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend-Wet Outlook for S Am: Corn, Down 1-2; Soybeans, Down 15-17; Wheat, ¼ to ½ Higher
· China’s Central bank promises more banking liquidity—puts $40+ billion into the system, Shanghai Composite rises .9%; Nikkei posts a 1% gain and the Hang Seng closes ½% higher. Europe is steady to higher: CAC-40, +.2%; DAX, +.3% and the FTSE, nearly unchanged. China’s IV quarter growth came in at 7.7% but markets noted a decline in factory output, retail sales and business investment. U.S. equities expected to start higher: S&P, up 5 ¼; Nasdaq, +18 ¾; Dow futures, +.3%. Gold is slightly lower, off $4.60 at $1,247; the energy complex is higher and the $ Index is up .123 at 81.485
· T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms form across key and driest areas of Argentina today and again Wednesday-Thursday. Well-organized rainfall of 1.50”-3.00” occurs through the period to break the intensely-dry pattern, and hot maximums in the 90s through Wednesday will be replaced by cool 70s and 80s for Thursday-Sunday. Although dry weather accompanies coolness, moderate chances for new thunderstorms begin around Jan. 28 as a warmer pattern slowly develops; maximums reach the 90s at times next week. In Brazil, occasional thunderstorms continue in previously-dry areas of Center-West/Southeast Brazil this week
· Mar Corn Down $.0175 at $4.2225; May Down $.02 at $4.2975. Funds were sellers of 6 K yesterday. COT shows short-covering
· Mar SB Down $.16 at $13.0050; May SB Down $.1475 at $12.8250. Funds were even on SB, bought 2 SBM, sold 4. Longs increase
· Mar Wheat Up $.0050 at $5.64; May Wheat Up $.0025 at $5.7075. The funds sold 5 K; Shorts decline 12 K to -53
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: Buenos Aires Grains Exchange pegs corn planting in Argentina as of Jan. 16 at 86%. Pollination for later planted corn will extend into February, which underscores the importance of short-term weather on yield potential
· T-storm Weather: Recent weather suggests USDA corn production forecast for Argentina may need to be lowered
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 29.0 needed; 20.9 last week. Milo—3.5 needed; 2.7 last week
· Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures positions increase 19,532 contracts
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Buenos Aires Grains Exchange pegs soybean planting in Argentina as of Jan. 16 at 96%. The Exchange also reduced its planted acreage forecast from 20.5 million hectares (50.7 million acres) to 20.4 (50.4)
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Soybeans, 15.5 needed; 59.4 last week
· Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures positions increase 16,567 contracts
· ATI Research: Buenos Aires Grains Exchange indicates that wheat harvest in Argentina is complete with production estimated at 10.1MMT (USDA at 10.5)
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 17.8 needed; 25.2 last week
· Commitment of Traders: CBT Non-Commercial long wheat futures positions increase 2,259 contracts
ENERGY
· Energy markets post gains: QCLG14,+$0.31 at $94.68; QRBG, +$0.0406; QNGG,+$.031 andQHOG, +$.0527
· Cash ethanol markets were mostly lower, down sharply in some instances on Friday: Chicago off 4 ½; Tampa 13 lower; Gulf was up 2 ½ firmer; Dallas dipped 14’ New York edged down ½; & LA plummeted 22 ½ to $2.39 ½ per gallon
· RINs were steady to firmer: 2012’s unch at 30-31; 2013’s up ¼ to 31-32; with 2014’s higher by ¼ at 30 ½-31 ½
· The February RBOB/February ethanol spread was back out $.0663 on Friday, to $.7324 per bushel
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
·   Choice boxed beef values gained $2.92 Friday to set a new record high for a seventh consecutive day at $231.71
· Cash cattle traded last week at a new record high of $142, up $3 from the week before, which was also a record high
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value increased $1.49 Friday and has increased $2.88 over the last two trading days
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price fell $2.09 Friday to $76.51
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather