HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Weaker--CZ: Down $.015; SX: Down $.0475; WZ: Down $.005; KWZ: Down $.0075
· MACRO: A mixed trend has developed in world markets today with higher oil prices lending support. ASIA: Nikkei, -1.3%; Shanghai, -0.3%; Hang Seng, steady. EUROPE: European stocks are firmer with the FTSE, +0.75%; DAX, +0.99. WALL STREET: Pre-markets are also mixed--DOW Futures, +10; S&P, =1; NAS, +1. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +.143 @ 96.455; Gold, -$0.46 @ $1,325.44; Nov Crude, +$.75 @ $45.42/barrel.
· T-Storm Weather: A large upper-level system swirls through the U.S. Corn Belt over the next 5 days, producing several days of showers within northeast third of the Corn Belt (especially today-Fri.), & ultimately resulting in significant totals of 0.50”-1.50” across & nearest Ohio. Areas to the west will be dry through the weekend. Temps into the weekend across Corn Belt average slightly cooler than normal as swirling system keeps maximums in the 60s-70s & minimums in the 40s-50s. Normal temps in west
· Corn: CZ Down $.015 @ $3.3025; CH Down $.015 @ $3.4025. The funds bought 5 K yesterday
· SB: SX Down $.0475 @ $9.4775; SF Down $.0475 @ $9.54. Funds: even SB, bought 1 SBM, sold 2 SBO.
· Wheat: WZ Down $.005 @ $4.035; WH Down $.005 @ $4.255. The funds bought 5 K on Tuesday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Consultant: Some corn losses in SE Minnesota, NE Iowa, W Wisconsin, but national yields have turned more favorable
· T-storm Weather: Several rounds of rain develop within U.S. central/northern Plains & northwest third of Corn Belt Oct. 2-7; 0.50”-1.50” of rain affects much of these areas to slow corn harvest; highest totals just west of wettest areas
· ATI Research: On average, an additional 8% of U.S. corn is harvested Sep. 25-Oct. 2; would boost 2016 total to 23%
· USDA Grain Stocks report on Sept. 30: Avg. trade guess for U.S. Sept. 1 corn stocks, 1.754 bbu (range 1.665-1.862)
· Ethanol margins: $0.35 per gallon—up from $0.30 last week but below $0.43 last year. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: Early U.S. soybean yield reports are encouraging and generally better than expected
· T-storm Weather: High pressure next week suppresses rain in U.S. eastern Corn Belt; favorable for soybean harvest
· ATI Research: On average, an additional 14% of U.S. soybeans harvested Sep. 25-Oct. 2; would boost ‘16 total to 24%
· USDA Grain Stocks report on Sept. 30: Avg. trade guess for U.S. Sept. 1 soybean stocks, 0.200 bbu (range 0.158-0.256)
· USDA Grain Stocks report on Sept. 30: Avg. trade guess for U.S. Sept. 1 wheat stocks, 2.438 bbu (range 2.175-2.650)
· T-storm Weather: Unneeded rain affects all eastern Australia wheat next 7-10 days; esp. South Australia and Victoria
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLX16, +$.75, $45.42; EBX,+$0.81; EBX-CLX, $1.36, +$.06; RBX, +.0362; NGX, -.06; HOX, +$.0285
· EIA estimates: crude, +3.1 (API: -0.8); Gasoline, unchanged (-3.7); Distillates, +0.1 (-0.3)
· Cash ethanol markets were firmer on Tuesday: Chicago gained 2; New York increased 3; Gulf and Tampa added 2 ½; Dallas climbed 2; and LA was ¾ higher at $1.68 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs higher: 2014’s up ½ to 87 ¼-88 ¼; 2015’s added ½ to 87 ¼-88 ¼; and 2016’s gained ½ to 87-88
· The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol inverse is trading at -0.1478, +0.03
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
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· Choice boxed beef values gained $1.18
on Tuesday to $188.22, and are up $2.72 vs. last week
· October feeder cattle futures on Tuesday made a new contract low of $126.55
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.08 on Tue. to $76.90, & is down $3.66 vs. a week ago
· Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Friday: Avg. trade est, all hogs and pigs, 101.1%; breeding, 100.6%, market, 101.1%
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com