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MARKET TREND Weaker CH, down 1, SH, down 5, WH, down 1

January 5, 2017 07:12 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Weaker: CH, down $.0075; SH, down $.06; WH, down $.0075;  KWH, down $.01

·        MACRO:  Global stocks are mostly steady—Fed expresses uncertainty over Trump’s policies—join the club, new meaning to “volatility”?.  ASIA—Yuan rises sharply;  Nikkei-0.37%;  Hang Seng, +1.46%; Shanghai,  +0.21%.   EUROPE—weaker: FTSE, -0.05%; DAX, -0.10%; CAC, -0.04%.  Wall STREET:  Futures slightly lower:  DOW, -1; S&P, -1.50; NASDAQ, -5.25.  EXTERNALS: $ Index, -0.314 @102.395;  Jan Gold, +$11.90 @ $1,175.70;  Feb Crude, +$0.28 @ $53.54.  Deliveries:  SBM, 96; SBO, 395; SB, 500

·        T-storm Weather: In Argentina, heavy thunderstorms turn northern areas wet intoFriday.  Although dry weather occurs to the south, several systems flow eastward from this weekend forward, triggering thunderstorms every 1-3 days, and resulting in at least near-normal rain through 10 days–except in driest areas of/near southwest Buenos Aires.  High pressure suppresses rain across the northeast ~10% of first-crop corn and soybean production in Brazil over the next 10 days; rain occurs elsewhere   

·        Corn: CH down $.0075 @ $3.59; CK down $.0075 @ $3.65.  The funds bought 4 K yesterday     

·        SB: SH down $.06 @ $10.0925; SK, dn $.06 @ $10.1750.  Funds—Bot 7 SB, 3 SBM, 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $.74, -$.01; LY, $.56

·        Wheat: WH down $.0075 @ $4.1775; WK down $.0050 @ $4.2875.  Fund buying totaled 3.5 K Wednesday                    &nb​sp;   

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·     &nb​sp;  T-storm Weather: In Argentina, strong thunderstorms slowly shift north into Fri., producing 1.75”-3.50” of rain (locally more) within northeast third of growing area, including northern fringes of excessively-wet corn in Cordoba, Santa Fe

·        Consultant: In a worst case scenario, ~5% of the corn in Argentina might be lost to flooding or not get planted

·        ATI Research: The past 4-week average export sales pace for U.S. corn is a record, which suggests that export shipments of corn over the next four weeks may average 40+ mbu per week—the 2nd highest for the period

·        EIA report at 10:00 AM CST.  Ethanol production last week was 1,028,000 barrels per day & last year’s was 996,000

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Consultant: A few early maturing soybeans have already been harvested in Mato Grosso, Brazil (the country’s top soybean producing state) with reports of better than expected yields

·        T-storm Weather: Key soybean areas of Mato Grosso will be drier than normal over the next week, marking a continuation of the fairly dry pattern than began 2-3 weeks ago, but likely turn considerably wetter Jan. 9-11 forward

·        ATI Research: U.S. HRW export sales over the last 4 weeks totaled 27 mbu, which is 17% above the 10-year average

·        T-storm Weather: In the U.S., dry and mild weather is forecast next week in key HRW wheat areas of the Plains

ENERGY

·        Higher:  CLG17, +$0.28 @ $53.54; EBH, +$0.32; EBH-CLH, $2.24, $0.00; RBG, -$.0067;NGG, +$0.024; HOG, +$.0027

·        EIA estimates (API): Crude oil, -2.0 (-7.4); Gasoline, +1.3 (+4.3); Distillates, +0.5 (+5.2)

·        Significant declines were seen in cash ethanol markets Wednesday: Chicago off 6 ½; New York slid 9 ¼; Gulf down 6; Tampa fell 5 ½; Dallas slipped 7 ½; and LA was 8 lower at $1.68 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs were lower: 2015’s, 2016’s and 2017’s all declined 2 ¾ to 78-83 ½

·        The Feb RBOB/Jan ethanol spread gained $.0871 in yesterday’s trade, increasing to +$0.13890/gallon,  premium RBOB         

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                  ​                  

·        Choice boxed beef values increased 32-cents on Wednesday to $203.65, and are up $1.81 compared to last week  

·        Light-to-moderate cash cattle trading occurred Wed.; sales in the South pegged at $117 to $118—steady to $1 lower

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value declined $1.73 on Wed. to $78.38, and is $2.66 lower vs. a week ago 

·        CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.11 to $57.58.  February futures were $1.10 higher and are $7.02 above the index  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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