HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Weaker: CH, down $.0025; SH, down $.01; WH, down $.0125;  KWH, down $.0225

·        MACRO:  Trump’s pro-growth agenda, QIV earnings above expectations/ economy favor “constructive” outlook but . . . .  ASIA-Lower, others nervous about The Donald: Nikkei, -0.35%; Hang Seng, -0.07%; Shanghai, -0.11%.   EUROPE-Higher but banks drag:FTSE, +0.63%; DAX, +0.47%; CAC, +0.16%.  Wall STREET-Futures suggest positive opening: DOW, +60; S&P, +5.75; NASDAQ, +11.75.  EXTERNALS: $ Index, +0.775 @ 100.64;  Gold, -$2.70 @ $1,228; and Mar Crude is off $0.13 @ $52.88

·        T-storm Weather: Argentina will remain dry through Thursday; 2-4” expected across the northwest third to ½ corn/SB areas Friday-Monday, with lesser but still significant totals to south and east. Wet areas to get more. A dry period is not expected next week, nor is another well-organized and heavy rain event. Occasional rain will continue across the northern 1/3^rd of Brazil this week and next with 5-10” probable. 

·        Corn: CH down $.0025 @ $3.6350;  CK down $.0025 @ $3.71.  The funds opened the week selling 4 K 

·        SB: SH down $.01 @ $10.35; SK down $.0125 @ $10.45.  Funds bought 5 SB; 3 SBM; 4 SBO.  Crush: $.75, $.00; LY: $59

·        Wheat: down $.0125 @ $4.2125; WK down $.0150 @ $4.34.  The funds sold 6 K on Monday                             

 

COR​N/SORGHUM

·        USDA WASDE on Feb. 9: Avg. trade est U.S. corn carryout--16/17, 2.334 bbu (range 2.250-2.415) and 2.355 in Jan.

·        Corn inspections solid at 43.8; top 30-39 mbu trade range as W Hemi demand continues strong

·        ATI trims c/o 35 mbu to 2.339 (USDA: 2.355)—10 higher ethanol grind; 25 increase in exports

·        Milo exports routine at 4.7 (4.8 needed); sales continue sluggish at about ½ the rate needed

·        T-storm Weather: Southern Brazil/Paraguay will see seasonable to cool temps, limited rain this week; stormier next

·        Consultant: Argentine corn crop steady at 34.0, neutral bias; Brazil estimate continues at 86, neutral to higher bias

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        USDA WASDE on Feb. 9: Avg. trade est U.S. soybean carryout--16/17, 412 mbu (range of 386-505) and 420 in Jan.

·        SB inspections total 60.1 week of 2/2; triple last year & well above 33-47 mbu trade range

·        Consultant raises Brazil crop estimate 1 MMT to 104 million; Argentina continues at 52.0

·        USDA WASDE on Feb. 9: Avg. trade guess U.S. wheat carryout--16/17, 1.176 bbu (range 1.145-1.211), 1.186 in Jan.

·        Next 10 days will bring significant rain to the Delta & SE Corn Belt; good rains for SRW, not so HRW, 80’s KS & South

·        Strong export performance by wheat—22.7 mbu; well above 7-15 trade range with China loading 3.5 mbu

ENERGY

·        Weaker:  CLH17, -$0.13 @ $52.88; EBJ, -$0.15; EBH-CLH, $2.70, -$0.01; RBH, -$.0061;NGH, +$0.042; HOH, -$.0047

·        Cash ethanol markets edged up on Monday with the Gulf rising 2 ½; Chicago was 2 1/8 higher to $1.49; LA gained 1 ½; Dallas rose 1 ¼ and both NY and Tampa were up 1

·        Ethanol RINs were all 2 cents higher  Monday: 2015’s, 46-50; 2016’s, 47-51 and 2017’s, also 47-51

·        The Mar RBOB/Feb ethanol spread went to an inverse yesterday, gaining to $.0564 to-0.0297/gallon, premium ETOH    

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                   &nb​sp;                

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·        Choice boxed beef values eased 17-cents on Monday and are $2.12 lower vs. last week

·        5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $2.46 v. last week at $118.76/cwt, and is $15.70 lower v. last year

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 61-cents on Mon. to $84.53, and is up $1.73 vs. last week

·        Current nearby board hog crush value is $43.09/cwt vs. last week’s $41.26, last month’s $42.70 & last year’s $47.37     

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather