HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND— Mostly Lower--CZ: Steady; SX: Down $.0375; WZ: Down $.0150; KWZ: Down $.0250
· MACRO: Brexit concerns return, weaker pound lifts Europe. ASIA: BOJ could introduce more stimulus--Nikkei up 0.83%; Shanghai, closed; Hang Seng, +0.45%. EUROPE: Firmer, Deutsche Bank “may” have to pay less to U.S. DOJ—DAX, +.57%; FTSE, +1.66%; CAC, +0.89%. WALL STREET: Pre-markets are firmer on U.S. mfg PMI—DOW, +16; the S&P, +1.75; NASDAQ, +7.00. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +.538 @ 99.125; Gold, -$1.40 @ $1,311.30; Nov Crude, -$.21 @ $48.60/barrel. Deliveries: 14 SBM; 2 SBO
· T-Storm Weather: A narrow but significant swath of rain occurs today across the western Corn Belt & adjacent areas of the central Plains. Better-organized rain follows on Thu.-Fri. when a secondary system develops. In total, the two systems produce heavy rain of 1.25”-2.50” across the northwest half of the Corn Belt & southeast half of the central/southern Plains. The eastern Corn Belt & Delta stay dry and turn unusually mild through Fri. followed by at least some rain when the system exits Sat.
· Corn: CZ Steady @ $3.46; CH Up $.0025 @ $3.56. The funds were again buyers of 10 K on Monday
· SB: SX Dn $.0375 @ $9.6925; SF Dn $.0325 @ $9.7475. Funds: bot 9 SB/5 SBM, sld 6 SBO. Dec/Nov crush, $.71, -$.02; LY: $0.93
· Wheat: WZ Down $.0150 @ $3.94; WH Down $.0150 @ $4.1575. The funds opened the week selling 5 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· Corn: Mature stage pegged at 86% vs. 82% for last year & 79% avg.; harvest at 24% vs. 24% last year & avg. of 27%. Good/Excellent of 73% is down a point v. last week (68% in ‘15). Sorghum: Harvest at 41% v. 41% last year & 36% avg.
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 16/17 carryout estimated at 2.378 bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 57 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Some of wettest weather this week affects areas that received at least 8.00” of rain the last 30 days in northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota & Wisconsin. Thus, it is likely for corn harvest to slow as the week progresses
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA pegs U.S. soybean dropping leaves at 83% vs. 82% last year and the avg. of 79%; harvest at 26% vs. 36% in 2015 and the 5-year avg. of 27%. Good/Excellent crop ratings of 74% are up a point vs. last week and above 64% in 2015
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 16/17 carry-out is estimated at 337 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Light rain cannot be ruled out in the eastern Corn Belt this weekend as the system in the Corn Belt potentially interacts with Hurricane Matthew
· ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet; 16/17 carryout projected at 154 mbu compared to 157 last year
· T-storm Weather: Thunderstorms occur today-Wed. across the heart of Argentina wheat; 0.75” to 1.50” amounts
ENERGY
· Lower: CLX16, -$.21 @ $48.60; EBZ, -$0.21; EBZ-CLX, $2.05, -$.03; RBX, +.0104; NGX, -.040; HOX, -$.0062
· Cash ethanol markets were mostly higher on Monday: Chicago up 1 ½; New York gained 3 ½; Gulf added 4 ½; Tampa increased 1 ½; Dallas climbed 3 ½; but LA was unchanged at $1.70 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs higher: 2014’s up 1 ½ to 89 ¼-91 ¾; 2015’s added 1 ½ to 89 ¼-91 ¾; and 2016’s gained 1 ½ to 89-91 ½
· The Nov RBOB/Oct ethanol inverse reversed course on Monday, widening nearly $.04 to -0.0995/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· ; Choice boxed beef values declined 73-cents on Monday to $186.62, and are 42-cents lower compared to a week ago
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $3.24 v. last week to $102.65/cwt and is $15.06 lower vs. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased $1.00 on Monday to $72.47, and is $5.51 lower vs. last week
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $20.16/cwt vs. last week’s $24.51, last month’s $31.52 & last year’s $36.62
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather