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MARKET TREND Mostly Higher CU UP 2, SQ Down 1, WU Up 3

July 20, 2016 07:44 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Mostly Higher:  CU: Up $.0125; SQ: Down $.0025; WU: Up $.0175  KWU: Up $.0150

·        MACRO: Cautiously optimistic on ideas the Brexit decision will make central banks more accommodative. Morgan Stanley, Intel & American Express out with earnings today.  ASIA: Mixed with the Nikkei off .25% and Shanghai .27% lower; the Hang Seng closed up .97%.  EUROPE: Higher at mid-day with the FTSE up .27%; the CAC is 1.22% to the plus side and the DAX is up 1.40%.  WALL STREET: Futures are positive:  DOW, +67; NAS, +15; S&P, +6 ¾.  OUTSIDE  MARKETS:, CLQ up $.02 @ $44.67; $ Index is .027 higher @ 97.135; August Gold futures are off $7.50 @ $1,324.80 

·        T-storm Weather: A thunderstorm cluster is probable from Wisconsin into parts of Illinois and Indiana today as heat expands; 1.00”-2.00” of rain and locally more is possible.  Hot to very hot weather will be in progress in all areas byThursday and continues into the weekend, but breaks Sunday-Monday as a system moves across southern Canada and allows a cool front to pass.  The system also triggers thunderstorms within the northeast half of Corn Belt, but chances are lower to the south and west

·        Corn: CU Up $.0125 @ $3.4325; CZ Up $.0125 @ $3.4975.  The funds sold 10 K   

·        SB:  SQ DN $.0025 @ $10.4375; SX DN $.0175 @ $10.26.   Funds: sold 18 K SB, 7 SBM; 2 SBO.  Aug crush, +$.01 ½, $.84 LY: $1.24

·        Wheat:  WU Up $.0175 @ $4.1975; WZ Up $.0150 @ $4.44.  The funds sold 4 K on Tuesday

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·      ​  December 2016 corn futures closed at $3.48 ½ Tue.; the current lowest settlement price for the contract is $3.48 ¼

·        ATI Research: U.S. near-term corn exports are projected to range from 55-60 mbu per week over the next month

·        T-storm Weather: Temperatures turn cooler next week, but generally range from seasonable east to above-normal west with any heat limited to western areas.  Some thunderstorms accompany the seasonable to warm pattern

·        Consultant: Warm night temps cause corn to expend energy maintaining cellular structures instead of filling kernels

·        Ethanol margins: $0.34 per gallon—down from 0.39 last week but above $0.32 last year.  EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Since trading to $11.23 on July 14, November 2016 soybean futures have declined $0.95 ¼ (8.5%) in four trading days

·        ATI Research: Bias is near-term U.S. soybean exports for up-coming 4-week period to average low to mid-20s (mbu)

·        Consultant: In areas where soil moisture is short, e.g. eastern Corn Belt, this week’s predicted high temps will result in some early flower & maybe pod abortion; but early enough for crop to recuperate if ridge breaks down rather quickly

·        ATI Research: Expect near-term U.S. all wheat exports to range from 17-22 mbu per week vs. 16.1 last year  

·        Chicago September 2016 wheat futures on Tuesday posted a new life-of-contract low settlement price of $4.18

ENERGY

·        Mixed:  CLQ16, +0.02, $44.67; EBU, +$0.24; EBU-CLU, $1.38, +$.17; RBQ, -.0075;  NGQ, -.014; HOQ, +$.0081

·        EIA estimates: crude, -1.7 (API: -2.3); Gasoline, -0.1 (+0.8); Distillates, +0.7 (-0.5)

·        Cash ethanol markets were significantly weaker on Tuesday: Chicago and Dallas down 4; New York off 2 ¼; Gulf slid 4 ¼; Tampa declined 3; and LA was 2 ½ lower at $1.72 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs firmer: 2014’s up ¼ at 94 ½-95 ¼; 2015’s gained ¼ to 94 ½-95 ¼; and 2016’s added ¼ to 94 ¼-95

·        The Aug RBOB/Aug ethanol inverse remains volatile, losing $.0365 to -$.14530/galon Tuesday                                   

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·        Choice boxed beef values were 29-cents lower on Tuesday at $202.28, and are down $4.10 vs. last week  

·        Estimates for Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed: July 1 on feed, 101.6%; June placement, 106.5%; Marketed in June 109.4%

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 38-cents on Tuesday to $90.11—the highest level since June 28

·        CME Lean Hog Index was $0.77 lower on Tue. at $79.13.  August futures declined $0.02 & are $1.78 below the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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