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MARKET TREND mostly higher CN, up 2, SN, down 1, WN, up 2

May 5, 2017 07:01 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—mostly higher: CN, up $.02; SN, down $.01; WN, up $.0225; KWN, up $.0275

·       MACRO—Mostly lower, too much oil has the market nervous; did the market add 185 K jobs in April (98 K Mar)? ASIA—Lower: Nikkei, closed; Shanghai, -0.77%; Hang Seng, -0.84%.  EUROPE—Mostly lower:  DAX, -0.34%; FTSE, +0.10%; CAC, -0.03%. Wall Street-Futures are mostly higher:  DOW, -12; S&P, +0.75; NAS, +1.75.  EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index,+0.063 @ 98.54; June Gold, +$6.40 @ $1,235; June Crude, -$0.02 @ $45.50.  Deliveries: SBM, 177; SBO, 277; Corn, 471; ETOH, 0; HRW, 41; SB, 0; SRW, 38

·       T-storm Weather: Prolonged rain continues today across southeast third of the Corn Belt, then ends while dry weather begins elsewhere.  Temps remain cool across the Corn Belt through the weekend (especially central and east), while marked warming sends maximums into the 70s, 80s, and 90s in the Plains.  The most likely scenario for next week is for rain to affect corn and HRW wheat areas of the central and southern Plains Wed.-Thu., and affect the Corn Belt and Delta in scattered fashion Wed.-Fri

·       Corn:  CN up $.02 $ @$3.6850;  CZ up $.02 @ $3.8650.   The funds were big sellers Thursday, 15 K        

·       SB: SN down $.01@ $9.7525; SX down $.0025 @ $9.6450.  Funds: sold 2 SB, 1 SBO, 0 SBM.  Board Crush: $.84, 0; LY; $.82

·       Wheat: WN up $.0225 @ $4.40; WU up $.0175  @$4.54.  The funds sold 10 K yesterday       

   CORN/SORGHUM

·       ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn emergence increases approximately 11% from April 30-May 7 to 19%

·       T-storm Weather: After rainfall exits the U.S. Plains and Corn Belt around the middle of next week, a drier and cooler period most likely follows by next weekend

·       U.S. old-crop corn export sales for week end April 27: 30.4 mbu, down 22% v. last week and 15% from the 4-week avg.

·       Consultant: The later planted corn in Argentina is generally rated in good condition, but it could be susceptible to frost for at least several more weeks.  Harvesting of later planted corn should start by the end of May

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. old-crop export sales of soybeans week end April 27: 11.7 mbu, down 57% v. last week and 25% v. the  4-week avg.  Old-crop sales of soymeal of 103,600 MT were down 8% v. last week and 35% from the 4-week avg.

·       Consultant: With regarding to Argentina soybeans, there is a concern that the recent cold temperatures could impact some of the later maturing fields

·       T-storm Weather: The coverage of HRW wheat that was wetter than normal over the last 60 days now includes 61% of U.S. production

·       Export sales of U.S. wheat week end April 27: 9.5 mbu, up sharply vs. last week’s 2.3 but 30% below the 4-week avg.

ENERGY

·       Up: CLM17, -$0.02 @ $45.50; EBN, +.15 @ $48.53; EBN-QCLN, +.17; RBM,+$.0013; NGM, +$0.025; HOM, -$.0131

·       Significant weakness was noted in cash ethanol marketson Thursday: Chicago down 5 ¼; New York fell 6; Gulf declined 5; Dallas and Tampa eased 4 ½; and LA was 6 ½ lower at $1.62 per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker on Thursday: 2016’s declined 2 ½ to 40-42 ½; and 2017’s fell 2 ¾ to 40-42 ½  

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol spread traded $.0144 wider at +$.01320/gallon carry, premium RBOB

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        &nbs​p;            

·      &nb​sp;Choice boxed beef values were up $2.99 on Thursday at $235.58, and are $16.43 higher vs. a week ago

·       Dressed steer weight for week end April 22: 849 lbs., up 1 lb v. last week, 857.5 for 4-week avg. & 870 last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed $1.17 on Thursday to $76.38,  and is up $3.26 compared to last week 

·       CME Lean Hog Index gained $1.10 on Thu. to $62.24.  May futures firmed $1.05 and are $6.76 above the index 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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