HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Mostly Firmer: CU: Up $.0050; SU: Up $.05; WU: Up $.0050; KWU: Down $.0050
· MACRO: “Meandering” (lower) said to be the descriptive term today, ahead of U.S. retail sales later this week. ASIA: the Hang Seng edged .12% higher; the Nikkei eased .18% lower and Shanghai, -.21%. EUROPE: lower at mid-day with the FTSE off .20%; CAC, -.32% and the DAX -.48%. WALL STREET: Futures—a little higher—DOW, up 5; S&P 500, +1.75 and the NAS, +2.. EXTERNALS: The $ Index is down a ½ point + at 95.56; August Gold is worth $11.90/oz more today @ $1,350.90 and Sep crude oil is $.37 lower at $42.40/barrel. Deliveries: 0 SBM; 315 SBO; 0 SB; 0 ETOH
· T-storm Weather: An approaching system causes very warm to hot & muggy weather to envelop central U.S. today; maximums in 90s with minimums around 70. A cool front breaks warmth Fri.-Sat. initiating several days of seasonableness; maximums in 80s & minimums in 60s. Dry weather recurs today but thunderstorms affect northwest half of corn & soybeans Wed.-Thu. as the system & its cool front approach, resulting in 0.50”-1.00” amounts; higher totals of 1.00”-2.00” from Dakotas through Wisconsin
· Corn: CU Up $.0050 @ $3.2275; Up $.0025 @ $3.3275. The funds sold 5 Kon Tuesday
· SB: SU Up $.05 @ $10.10; SX Up $.0525 @ $9.9325. Funds: Bot 3K SB, 3K SBM, 4K SBO. Sep crush, -$.03, $.76; LY: $1.05
· Wheat: WU Up $.0050 @ $4.1750; WZ Up $.0050 $4.3725. The funds were said to again be even Tuesday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Consultant: Concern for U.S. corn crop: Drier than normal soil moisture in Ohio, Michigan, E Indiana & Pennsylvania
· T-storm Weather: Widespread rain of 0.50”-1.50” is forecast Fri.-Sun. from Delta through southeast third of U.S. Corn Belt, but potentially higher totals of 1.00”-3.00” from Delta through Ohio dependent on exact setup this weekend
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn exports pegged to range from 55.5-55.8 mbu per week, almost double 5-year avg.
· USDA WASDE report: Average trade estimate for 2015/16 Brazil corn production is 68.3 MMT vs. July estimate of 70.0
· Ethanol margins: $0.24 per gallon—down from 0.34 last week and $0.32 last year. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: On average, an additional 14% of U.S. soybeans set pods betweenAug. 7-Aug. 14
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean exports may well avg. 30-40 mbu per week over the next month, gradually working higher
· T-storm Weather: Late next week (Aug. 19), another cool front passes; reverts temp to seasonable with scattered rain
· Consultant: Soybean crop ratings remain high but forecasted rain later this week is needed for dry eastern Corn Belt
· ATI Research: Expect U.S. all wheat exports over the next 4 weeks to range from 20-25 mbu vs. 18.0 last year
· T-storm Weather: U.S. HRS wheat harvest to slow in eastern N Dakota & Minnesota Wed.-Thu. due to 1.00”-2.00” rain
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLU16, -$.37, $42.402; EBV,-0.38; EBV-CLU, $2.28, +$.07; RBU, +.0101; NGU, +.014; HOU, -$.0013
· Cash ethanol markets were mostly weaker on Tuesday: Chicago down 1 ¼; New York off ¾; Gulf eased 1 5/8; Tampa and Dallas declined 1; but LA was 1 ¾ higher at $1.56 ¾ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs weaker: 2014’s eased 2 3/8 to 84 ¼-88 ¼; 2015’s off 2 3/8 to 84 ¼-88 ¼; & 2016’s down 2 3/8 to 84-88
· The Sep RBOB/Sep ethanol inverse increased $.0098 to -$.07580/gal Tuesday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values were up 72-cents on Tuesday at $199.89, and are $1.49 vs. a week ago
· Cash cattle trading remained very slow on Tuesday with asking prices in the South pegged around $122
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 98-cents lower on Tue. at $75.46, and is the lowest since March 24
· CME Lean Hog Index eased $0.51 on Tue. to $69.42. August futures down $0.175 and are $2.495 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather