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MARKET TREND Mixed CN down 2, SN down 1, WN down 6

June 22, 2017 07:26 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Mixed:  CN:  down $.0025; SN: up $.0075; WN: down $.0425; KWN: down $.05

·       MACRO: Oil prices pulled Wall Street lower Wednesdayand overseas bourses moved in sympathy overnight.  ASIA—Lower: Nikkei, -0.14%; Shanghai, -0.29%; Hang Seng, -0.08%.  EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.13%; FTSE, -0.46%; CAC, -0.49%.   WALL STREET—as are U.S. futures—DOW, -17; S&P, -2.25; NAS, -6.50.  EXTERNALS:  The $ Index: +.009 @ 97.225; gold: +$7.60 @ $1,251 July crude: +$.28 @ $48.21/barrel

·       T-storm Weather: Two waves of energy and a tropical storm converge on the Corn Belt and Delta through Friday.  Areas of significant rainfall result, mainly in northern areas of the Corn Belt through today, and across the Delta and far southeast Corn Belt Thursday-Friday.  Temperatures turn sharply cooler Friday-Saturday and remain cool for five days; dry weather also occurs in this period, except for some thunderstorms in/near west Texas

·       CN, Down $.0025 @ $3.6850; CZ, down $.0025 @ $3.8650.  The funds sold 3 K at mid-week         

·       SN, Up $.0075 @ $9.1950; SX, Up $.01 @ $9.2875.   Fund activity: Sld 6 K SB, 4 K SBM, 3 K SBO. Board Crush: $.88, +1; LY, $.70

·       WN, Down $.0425 @ $4.60255; WU, Down $.0475 @ $4.7475.  The funds sold 4 K on Wednesday

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 22-30 mbu for 16/17 corn

·       T-storm Weather: Temps turn warmer west to eastJune 27-29.  The exact setup that follows cannot be determined for several days, but is conducive to rain in Corn Belt June 28 - July 4 given the expected proximity of the jet stream

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 990,000 barrels/day for week end June 16—dn 12 thou v. prior week but up 1.3% v. last year

·       Consultant: Argentina corn production est. is steady this week at 39.0 MMT.  Wet weather last week and over the weekend slowed down harvest, which is only 45% complete.  At this pace, harvest may not be completed until August

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 7-15 mbu for 16/17 soybeans; soymeal, 50-200 K MT; soyoil, 8-30 K MT 

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean production estimate is unchanged at 57.0 MMT.  Harvest at 94.5% 

·       T-storm Weather: The proportion of U.S. soybean production that was drier than normal at the topsoil level (14-day rainfall) sharply diminished from rainfall over the last 10 days, but remains elevated

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 11-18 mbu for 17/18 all wheat

·       T-storm Weather: Subsoil dryness for U.S. spring wheat did diminish from recent rains, but remains unusually high.  The proportion of spring wheat this week rated “good and excellent” is the lowest since 1988

ENERGY

·       Firmer: CLQ17, +$0.28 @ $42.81; EBQ, +$0.40 @ $45.22; EBQ-QCLQ, +.10; RBQ, +.0117; NGQ, +.015; HOQ, +.0080

·       Cash ethanol markets were slightly lower on Wednesday: Chicago down 5/8; New York fell 1 ½; Gulf declined 1 ¼; Tampa eased ½; Dallas off ¼; and LA was a penny lower at $1.69 per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs were fractionally lower on Wednesday: 2016’s and 2017’s off ¾ to 73 ½-74 ½ 

·       The July RBOB/July ethanol inverse gained $.0065, expanding to $.1045/gallon in Wednesday’s trade

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                          &nb​sp;          

·       Choice boxed beef values declined $1.57 on Wednesday to $245.42 , and is down $5.61 vs. last week

·       Estimates for Friday‘s USDA Cattle on Feed: June 1 on feed, 102.2%; May placement, 110.1%; Marketed in Apr 108.8%

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout increased $1.67on Wednesday to $99.97, and is the highest since Oct. 23, 2014

·       CME Lean Hog Index gained $1.48 on Wed. to $88.03.  July futures firmed $1.075 but are still $1.955 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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