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MARKET TREND Mixed CN Down 1, SN, Up 4, WN, Down 1

May 17, 2016 07:21 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND-Mixed:   CN Down $.01; SN, Up $.0425; WN, Down $.0025; KWN, Up $.0175

·        MACRO:  Crude is flirting near its highs of the year & lifting stocks.  ASIA:  The Nikkei posted a 1.13% gain; the Hang Seng closed up 1.18% while Shanghai eased .25%.  EUROPE:  higher at the mid-day with the DAX up .29%; the CAC 40 is up .40% and the FTSE, +.63%.  WALL STREET:  Futures are mixed—DOW, +5; NAS, +3 ¼; S&P, -.50.  EXTERNALS: The $ Index is slightly weaker, -.010 at 94.615; Gold is $.40 cheaper at $1,275.00 and June Crude is trading both sides, now down $.01 @ $47.71

·        T-storm Weather:  Coolness prevails into the weekend across the Corn Belt, followed by a notably warmer pattern next week. Heavy rain focuses near the southern edge of coolness today and potentially again in the Delta and southeast Corn Belt Friday-Saturday, while drier to sharply drier weather occur to the immediate north over the next week; driest to the north of Interstate 80).  The warmer pattern next week causes tropical air to flow far northward, resulting in thunderstorms in varying areas – especially from the Plains through western half of the Corn Belt where above-normal rain is probable (starting next Mon.-Tue.)

·        CN, Down $.01 @ $3.93; CZ, Down $.0050 @ $3.9950.  The funds opened the week buying 6

·        SN, Up $.0425 @ $10.6875; SX, Up $.0375 @ $10.5875.  Funds: Even on SB; sold 3 K SBM; bot 4 K SBO

·        WN, Down $.0025 @ $4.7425; WU, Up $.0075 @ $4.8475.  Funds sold 3 K Monday

CORN/SORGHUM                   &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;               

·&nbs​p;       USDA pegs nationwide U.S. corn planting as of May 15 at 75% vs. 82% last year and the 5-year average of 70%.  Corn emergence is 43% vs. 48% in 2015 and the average of 34%.  Sorghum planting at 33% vs. 32% last year the 39% avg.

·        ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout est. at 1.748 bbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 1.983 bbu

·        ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 15/16 carryout forecast at 65 mbu; 16/17 carry-out pegged at 45 mbu

·        T-storm Weather: Most northern corn areas in Brazil receive less to much-less than 0.50” of rain this week as drought worsens and temps remain hot, including 60% of winter corn production.  Stormy weather continues to the South

·        December 2016 corn futures closed at $4.00 on Mon., which is the 2nd highest settlement price for calendar year 2016

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        USDA pegs U.S. soybean planting as of May 15 at 36% vs. 41% last year and the 5-year average of 32%.  Soybean emergence is 10% vs. 11% in 2015 and the average of 9%

·        ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout pegged at 416 mbu; 16/17 carry-out estimated at 385 mbu

·        T-storm Weather: Well-organized rain is not foreseen for Argentina soybeans through 10 days

·        ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat balance sheet; 15/16 carryout pegged at 179 mbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 157 mbu

·        ATI Research: Updated 2016 U.S. winter wheat production estimates (in mbu): HRW, 889; SRW, 358; and White, 217

ENERGY

·        Mixed: CLM16, -$0.01,  $47.01; EBN, -$.07; EBN-CLM, +$1.16, -$0.09; RBM, -$.0045; NGM, +0.027; HOM, +$.0071

·        Cash ethanol markets were mostly higher on Monday: Chicago gained 2 ¼; New York up 1 ½; Gulf down ½; Dallas steady; Tampa climbed ½; and LA was 1 ½ higher $1.70 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs were weaker: 2014’s down 3/8 at 75-75 ¼; 2015’s off 1/8 at 75-75 ¼; and 2016’s eased 3/8 to 74 ½-74 ¾

·        The June RBOB/June spread gave up $.0059 on Monday, settling at+$.0383/gallon                    ​     

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                          &nbs​p;                        ​;  

·   &nbs​p;    Choice boxed beef values soared $3.84 on Monday, and at $222.40 are $14.83 higher compared to a week ago 

·        5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $5.97 v. last week to $132.56/cwt but is $28.24 lower vs. last year

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.63 higher on Monday at $83.34 and is up $1.55 vs. last week

·        CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.29 on Mon. to $76.72.  June futures added $1.075 and are $6.305 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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