HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Mixed: CK, up $.0050; SK, down $.0425; WK, up $.0125; KWK, up $.0225
· MACRO—Lower markets as the geopolitical situation remains somewhat clouded. And, the lack of a favorite in the upcoming 1stround French election is a little unsettling. ASIA—Mostly lower: Nikkei, +0.35%; Shanghai, -0.79%; Hang Seng, -1.39%. EUROPE—Lower: DAX, -0.71%; FTSE, -1.31%; CAC, -1.44%. Wall STREET-Futures are lower: DOW, -49; S&P, -8.50; NAS, -16.00. EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, -0.084 @ 99.95 ; April Gold, -$4.40 @ $1,285; May Crude, -$0.42 @ $52.23
· T-storm Weather: Several systems move across the central U.S. through Sunday, producing 1.00" to 3.00" of rain in most areas with highest totals in the Corn Belt. Best chances are in northern areas over Tuesday-Thursday, then in southern areas over Friday-Sunday. A break in rain follows late in the weekend and early next week, but it is only expected to be temporary as the next series of systems pass and produce widespread rain from the middle of next week forward (April 26 – May 1)
· Corn: CK up $.0050 @ $3.67; CN up $.0050 @ $3.7375. The Funds opened the week selling 8 K
· SB: down $.0450 @ $9.4875; SN down $.0475 @ $9.59. Funds: sold 3 SB, 4 SBM, & bot 6 SBO. Board Crush: $.86, 0; LY; $.62
· Wheat: WK up $.0125 @ $4.2225; WN up $.01 @ $4.3675. The Funds sold 10 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA estimates U.S. corn planting progress as of April 16 at 6% vs. 12% last year and the 5-year average of 9%
· T-storm Weather: In South America, widespread rains affect Brazil over the next 10 days or longer as the rainy season lasts longer than normal; widespread coverage of above-normal rainfall affectssafrinha (double crop) corn
· Consultant: Brazil corn crop production estimate is unchanged this week at 90.0 MMT. Over the past week, there has been rainfall in both Mato Grosso and Parana, which are the two main safrinha(double crop) producing states
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. corn export forecast model decreased from 60.2 mbu per week last week to 55.0. This compares to an avg. of 53.7 for the past month; is 9 mbu higher than last year; and 21 mil above the 5-year avg.
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. at 109.0 MMT with a neutral/higher bias. Nationwide harvest approaching 90%
· T-storm Weather: Dry and cool weather generally dominate wettest soybean area of Argentina over the next 10 days
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean export forecast slipped 600 K bu to 17.4 mbu per week. This is 11 mbu below the prior 4-week avg. but nearly double the 5-year pace of 9.8 mbu. It’s also up 7 mbu vs. the upcoming 2016 pace
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. wheat export forecast is 20-25 mbu/week v. 16.1 last year & latest 4-week avg. of 22.5
· ATI Research: U.S. Good/Excellent +1% to 54%; winter wheat model pegs ‘17 crop @ 1.283 bbu; +7 mbu v. last week
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLK17, -$0.42 @ $52.23; EBM, -0.55 @ $54.81; EBM-QCLM, -.12; RBK,-$.0157; NGK, -$0.021; HOK, -$.0117
· A weaker trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago down 2 3/8; New York fell 1 ½; Gulf declined 2 ¼; Dallas eased 2 ½; Tampa was 3 lower; and LA was a penny lower at $1.84 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs declined on Monday: 2016’s fell ¾ at 53-54 ½; and 2017’s down 1 at 53-54 ½
· The May RBOB/May ethanol spread lost $.0013 on Monday, settling at +$.06260/gallon, premium RBOB
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· ; Choice boxed beef values were $2.05 higher on Monday at $214.13, and are up $6.67 compared to last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price up $3.68 v. last week at $128.01/cwt, but is $5.98 lower v. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass eased 2-cents on Monday to $74.22, and is $1.58 lower vs. a week ago
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $42.41/cwt vs. last week’s $43.01, last month’s $46.04 & last year’s $47.26
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather