HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Lower--CZ Down $.0250; SX: Down $.0375; WZ: Down $.0250; KWZ: Down $.0225
· MACRO: Rate hike fears ebb; it IS an election year; IEA SLASHES global oil demand forecast. ASIA: mixed—Nikkei, +.34%; Hang Seng, -.32%; Shanghai, +.06%. EUROPE: Higher but gains trimmed--CAC, +.23%; DAX, +.51%; FTSE, +.16%. WALL STREET: Futures are lower—DOW, -94; S&P, -12; NAS, -24.75. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +.202 @ 95.290; Gold, +$4 @ $1,325.60; Oct Crude is $1.09 lower @ $45.20/barrel. Del’y: Corn—8; SRW—22; HRW—47; SBO--56 SBM--100; SB--0
· T-Storm Weather: Widely scattered thunderstorms dot the central/southern Plains & southeast two-thirds of the U.S. Corn Belt through Wed.; 0.20”-0.40” amounts most common. Better rain chances exist across central U.S. Thu.-Sun.; best chances are in the Plains Thu.-Fri. & in Corn Belt Fri.-Sat.; 0.67”-1.67” of rain results with highest coverage & amounts from the central/southern Plains through northwest half to two-thirds of Corn Belt. Temps average warmer than normal through mid-month for most areas
· Corn: CZ Down $.0250 @ $3.37; CH Down $.0250 @ $3.4750. The funds bought 1 K to begin the week
· SB: SX Down $.0375 @ $9.6050; SF Down $.04 @ $9.6475. Funds: sold 8 SB, 4 SBM; 6 SBO. Oct crush, +$.07, $.90; LY: $1.03
· Wheat: WZ Down $.0250 @ $4.0675; WH Down $.0275 @ $4.2725. The funds bought 4 K on Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
· WASDE pegs 2016 U.S. corn crop at 15.093 bbu vs. avg. guess of 14.951 bbu (range: 14.663-15.195) & 15.153 in Aug.
· WASDE pegs 2015/16 U.S. corn carry-out at 1.716 bbu (1.712 trade avg.); 2016/17 est. at 2.384 bbu (vs. trade 2.285)
· ATI Research: U.S. corn will be facing more export competition during the latter half of the 2016/17 marketing year with 4.5 MMT more exports from Argentina compared to 2015/16 and an additional 8.5 MMT from Brazil
· USDA Crop Progress: Good/Excellent U.S. corn rating steady at 74% (68% in ‘15); harvest at 5% vs. 7% for 5-year avg.
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 15/16 carryout est. at 1.915 bbu; 16/17 carry-out est. at 2.642bbu
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· WASDE pegs 2016 U.S. soybean crop at 4.201 bbu vs. avg. guess of 4.096 bbu (range: 4.019-4.163), 4.060 in Aug.
· WASDE pegs 2015/16 U.S. bean carry-out at 195 mbu (232 trade avg.); 2016/17 est. at 365 mbu (vs. trade of 331)
· ATI Research: A near 2.0 MMT upward revision in 2016 fall South American soybean stocks takes some of the optimism off the Sep-Feb U.S. soybean export program, as does a 1.0 MMT reduction in expected Chinese imports
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean balance sheet; 15/16 carryout at 210 mbu, while 16/17 carry-out is est. at 325 mbu
· WASDE pegs 2016/17 U.S. all wheat carry-out at 1.100 bbu (1.100 trade avg.) and unchanged from August
· ATI Research: Larger wheat crop est. for FSU-12, Australia & Canada equal more export competition going forward
ENERGY
· Lower: CLV16, -$1.09, $45.20; EBX,-$1.07; EBX-CLV, $2.07, +$.04; RBV, -.0289; NGV, -.012; HOV, -$.0169
· A notably firmer trend was seen in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago up 4 ¼; New York added 1; Gulf gained 2 ½; Tampa increased 3; Dallas climbed 2; and LA was 3 ¼ higher at $1.66 ¼ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs higher: 2014’s up ¼ at 87 ¼-87 ¾; 2015’s added ¼ to 87 ¼-87 ¾; and 2016’s firmed ¼ to 87-87 ½
· The Oct RBOB/Oct ethanol inverse increased $.0042 on Monday to -.13010/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values eased 37-cents on Monday to $187.53, and are $3.56 lower compared to a week ago
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $4.66 v. last week to $105.02/cwt and $34.16 lower vs. last year
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was $1.03 lower on Mon. at $80.34, but is still $3.14 higher vs. last week
· Current nearby board hog crush value is $30.00/cwt vs. last week’s $32.59, last month’s $30.86 and last year’s $36.04
: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather