HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: Lower--CZ: down $.0125; SF: down $.0475; WZ: Down $.0025; KWZ: Down $.0175
· MACRO: U.S election race narrows, overshadows Japan’s PMI improvement from 48.2 to 50.5; stocks fall as Clinton viewed as more market friendly candidate. ASIA: Weaker: Nikkei, -1.34%; Shanghai, -0.12%; Hang Seng, -0.18%. EUROPE: Weaker: FTSE, -1.22%; DAX, -0.87%; CAC, -0.84%. WALL STREET: Yes, weaker, as well: DOW, -25; S&P, -1.75; NASDAQ, -5.25. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +.014 @ 97.21; Gold, -$0.90 @ $1,302.40; Dec Crude, -$0.05 @ $45.61. Deliveries: 163 SB, 0 ethanol
· Weather: Mostly dry weather is forecast for the U.S. western Corn Belt through Sat., with temperatures averaging mostly well above normal. Mostly dry conditions are also forecast for the eastern Belt through Sat., with temps also mostly well above normal. Isolated light showers could develop in the west on Sunday or Sunday night, while mostly dry conditions are forecast to persist in the east. The extended forecast is for warm and dry conditions for the Corn Belt on Election Day (Nov. 8) next week
· Corn: CZ down $.0125 @ $3.4675; CH down $.0125 @ $3.5575. The funds bought 4 K on Thursday
· SB: SX down $.0450 @ $9.7525; SF down $.0475 @ $9.8475. Funds: Bot 3 SB; 1 SBM; 1 SBO. Jan crush, $.71, -$.02; LY: $0.93
· Wheat: WZ down $.0025 @ $4.1175; WH Up $.0050 @ $4.3025. The funds sold 3 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· December 2016 corn futures closed at $3.48 on Thursday. One year ago, December 2015 corn settled at $3.74 ½
· ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales for 16/17 for the week ending Oct. 27 of 58.0 mbu were well above the trade range of 28-39, and more than double last year’s 21.9. Sorghum sales for 16/17 were 15.9 mbu vs. 6.0 last year
· Early private estimates for USDA’s Nov. 9 Crop Production report pegging an increase in U.S. corn output vs. October
· Consultant: Full-season corn in Brazil represents approximately one-third of Brazil’s total corn production and it appears that this crop is not quite as good as it was several weeks ago
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· January 2017 soybean futures closed at $9.89 ½ Thursday. One year ago, January 2016 beans settled at $8.64
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean export sales for 16/17 for the week ending Oct. 27 of 92.4 mbu were considerably above the trade range of 46-59, and nearly 4X last year’s 24.1 total
· Consultant: Soybean planting in Argentina is probably 2-4% complete compared to the average of approx. 5%
· ATI Research: U.S. wheat export sales for 16/17 of 8.6 mbu were below trade range of 15-22 but well above 3.1 in ‘15
· Scattered light to locally moderate rain may develop Saturday across U.S. HRW wheat through the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and into extreme southwest Kansas
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLZ16, -$.05 @ $44.61; EBF, -$0.20; EBFZ-CLZ, $1.55, -$0.14; RBZ, -$.0166; NGZ, +$.023; HOZ, +$.0012
· Cash ethanol markets were notably weaker on Thursday: Chicago off 3 1/8; New York declined 2 ¼; Gulf down 3 ¼; Tampa and Dallas slid 6 ¼; and LA was a nickel lower at $1.73 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs declined: 2014’s, 2015’s and 2016’s were all 1 1/8 lower at 88-89 ½
· The Dec RBOB/Nov ethanol inverse shrank $.0736 to -0.09350/gallon yesterday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   ;
· Choice boxed beef was $1.30 higher on Thursday at $188.74, is up $7.20 vs. last week & the highest since Sep. 29
· Light to moderate cash cattle trade occurred on Thursday in the South at prices steady with last week; e.g. $105
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout firmed 93-cents on Thu. to $72.46, but is 30-cents lower vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.15 Thu. to $51.43. December futures eased $0.825 and are $4.43 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN