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MARKET TREND Lower CN, down 3, SN, down 5, WN, down 2

June 15, 2017 07:33 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Lower:  CN, down $.0150; SN, down $.04; WN, down $.01;  KWN, down $.0150 

·       MACRO—As expected, Fed raises rates ¼%; Techs on the defensive, again; weak retail sales along with lack of inflaton causes investors angst.   ASIA—Mostly lower Nikkei, -0.26%; Shanghai, +0.06%;  Hang Seng, -1.20%.  EUROPE—Lower: DAX, -1.01%; FTSE, -0.81%; CAC, -1.17%.Wall Street-Futures are Lower:  DOW, -87;  S&P, -16.75; NAS, -66.75.  EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, +.424 @ 97.015; June Gold, -$15.90 @ $1,257; Aug Crude, +$0.01 @ $44.94

·       T-storm Weather: Several waves of energy move across the Corn Belt and Delta over the next five days.  Scattered thunderstorms result in varying areas each day, producing generalized rainfall of 1.00” to 2.00”.  Although each system has the potential to develop showers and thunderstorms within the Plains, amounts over the next week will mostly be less to much-less than 0.50” with the highest overall chance Sat.-Sun. in the northern Plains when the last wave passes

·       Corn: CN down $.0150 @ $3.7550; CZ down $.02 @ $3.9350.  Fund selling at mid-week totaled 4 K

·       SB: SN down $.04 @ $9.2775; SX down $.04 @ $9.35.   Funds: Even SB, bot 1 SBM, sold 1 SBO.  Board Crush: $.85, +1; LY; $0.91

·       Wheat: WN down $.01 @ $4.42; WU down $.0075 @ $4.5650.   The funds were even in Tuesday’s trading      

CORN/SORGHUM

·       Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 20-28 mbu for 16/17 corn

·       T-storm Weather: The central U.S. becomes divided by heat to the southwest and coolness to the northeast next week.  Some thunderstorms are likely with the best rain chances with eastward extent/eastern Corn Belt

·       Ethanol grind: Total of 1,002,000 barrels/day for week end June 9—up 3 thou v. prior week but down 1.1% v. last year

·       Consultant: Argentina corn production estimate is unchanged this week at 39.0 MMT.  Harvest is 42% complete, which is 3- points slower than average and one of the slowest in recent years

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 9-17 mbu for 16/17 soybeans; soymeal, 50-200 K MT; soyoil, 5-25 K MT 

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean production estimate is increased 0.5 MMT to 57.0 MMT.  Harvest at 90% 

·       T-storm Weather: Temps remain much warmer than normal across southern half to two-thirds of central U.S. through Sat.  Areas further north will be considerably cooler through then.  Most areas stay seasonable/cool over June 18-23

·       Export Sales report.  Trade expects 13-20 mbu for 17/18 all wheat

·       T-storm Weather: Despite recent rain, the proportion of U.S. spring wheat that was drier than normal included 61% of output the last 14 days.  The proportion of crop that was wetter than normal the last 30 days only improved to 6%

ENERGY

·       Higher: CLQ17, +$0.01 @ $44.94; EBQ, +$0.08 @ $47.08; EBQ-QCLQ, +.06; RBQ, -.0055; NGQ, +.012; HOQ, +.0021

·       A weaker trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago down 3/8; New York and Gulf off 1 ¼;  Tampa declined 1; Dallas eased ½; and LA was ½ lower at $1.69 ½ per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs were firmer on Wednesday: 2016’s and 2017’s increased 2 ¼ to 75-78 

·       The July RBOB/June ethanol inverse jumped nearly 5 cents, to -$.11630/gallon

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                         &​nbsp;           

·       ​Choice boxed beef values eased 16-cents on Wednesday to $251.03 , but are still up 32-cents vs. last week

·       August live cattle futures on Wed. closed at $117.875—the lowest settlement price for the contract since April 27

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was a penny higher on Wed. at $94.59, and is up $2.95 vs. a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.94 on Wed. to $82.10.  July futures gained $0.30 and are $0.475 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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