· MARKET TREND-Lower: CN Down $.03; SN, Down $.0975; WN, Down $.0175; KWN, Down $.0175
· MACRO: Global equities are mostly weaker ahead of this morning’s USDA retail sales numbers. ASIA: All the major exchanges closed lower on Friday—the Nikkei fell 1.4%; the Hang Seng lost .99% and Shanghai was off .99%. EUROPE: Mid-Day trade finds the DAX only modestly lower, -.07%; the CAC 40 is down .4% and the FTSE, off .51%. U.S. PRE-MARKETS: Lower—DOW futures are down 62; the S&P is 6 ¼ lower and the NAS, 13 in the red. EXTERNALS: Gold, up $3.90 @ $1,275.10; the $ Index is a up .157 @ 94.37 and June WI is down $.72 at $45.98/barrel.
· T-storm Weather: Odds are increased for La Niña conditions to develop late in the year and is so, it would favor: 1) rains in wheat areas of Australia, 2) drying in Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay next growing season, and 3) a wetter pattern in Indonesia with time. With El Nino weakening and the U.S. autumn-winter #4 warmest of the last 121 years, there is a high probability for the upcoming summer to have a significant heat wave in June, July, and / or August. Odds for a dry or wet summer are neither higher nor lower than normal. Next 5 days sees sharply lower temps North (light frosts) and Central U.S
· CN, Down $.03 @ $3.86; CZ, Down $.03 @ $3.9325. Big fund buying, 30 K. Deliveries, 217 Corn
· SN, DN $.0975 @ $10.6225; SX, DN $.10 @ $10.5125. Funds: Sold 2 K SB/6 SBO; Bought 4 SBM. Dely: SBM 25; SBO-210; SB-62
· WN, Down $.0175 @ $4.6625; WU, Down $.0250 @ $4.7525. Funds bought 5 K on Thursday. Dely: 32 HRW; 2 SRW
CORN/SORGHUM     ;  
· Solid old crop corn sales number at 43.5, nearly 4 times the implied USDA rate
· Milo export sales at 5.2 well above the 2.4 mbu per week needed
· South African logistics group expects imports to reach 7 MMT, more than double other forecasts
· More talk corn acres will be lost to beans as SX/CZ has risen from 2.31:1 in early January to 2.67 currently
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Old crop soybean sales at 7.8 disappoint—trade was expecting 13-18 but only 2.1/week are needed
· Respectable wheat activity—10.8 old crop versus 2-6 expected; new crop at 14.3 tops 7-13 trade range
· 115 K old crop SBM sales fall short of 125-225 trade range but are nearly double implied BOY rate. SBO sales total 16.8 K for 15/16—compares to 5-20 expected and 8.4/week needed
· Meal export demand continues strong—4-week shipment pace at 218 K MT/week is 1/3rd more than 5-year average
· U.S. HRW regions will see additional rain the next week—some are voicing possible quality concerns
· Argentina’s soybean harvest continues to lag, 51% versus 69% this time last year
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLM16, -$0.72, $45.98; EBN, -$.64; EBN-CLM, +$1.45, +$0.07; RBM, -$.0285; NGM, -0.061; HOM, -$.0164
· Cash ethanol markets were mostly firmer Thursday: Chicago gained $.02+ $1.5433; the Gulf was $.0275 higher; NY movd up $.0150 to $1.63; Dallas rose $.01 while Tampa and LA each eased $.01 to $1.70 & $1.7050, respectively
· Ethanol RINs were firmer: 2014’s up ¼ to 75 ¼ -75 ½; 2015’s also up ¼ to 75- 75 ¼; & 2016’s, + ¼ to 74 ¾ -75
· The June RBOB/June spread slipped $.0112 to +.0413/gallon on Thursday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY   ;
· ; Choice boxed beef values increased $0.75 on Thursday and are up $10.04 compared to a week ago
· Cash cattle traded on Thur. with Southern live prices of $134 up $7 from LW and Northern dressed $210 up $10 vs LW
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was down 21-cents on Thu. at $82.47 and is down $0.02 vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index was $0.44 higher on Thu. at $76.05. May futures firmed $0.05 and are $0.875 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather