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MARKET TREND Lower CH, down 2, SH, down 1, WH, down 1

January 12, 2017 07:21 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Lower: CH, down $.0150; SH, down $.0175; WH, down $.02;  KWH, down $.0425  

·        MACRO:  Trump’s lack of policy clarity “ripples” across markets--wire service.  ASIA—Lower.  Nikkei, -1.19%; Hang Seng, -0.46%; Shanghai,  -0.55%.   EUROPE—Mostly Lower: FTSE, -0.06%; DAX, -0.41%; CAC, +0.01%.  Wall STREET:  Futures are weaker.  DOW, -37; S&P, -5.75; NASDAQ, -11.00.  EXTERNALS: $ Index, -.752 @100.995;  Mar Gold, +$7.90 @ $1,205.90;  Feb Crude, +$0.62@ $52.87.  Deliveries:  SBM, 239; SBO, 174; SB, 121

·        T-storm Weather: In Brazil, a stormy period occurs through 10 days, especially within northern areas where first-crop corn and soybeans likely benefit from rain after below-normal totals within parts of Goias, Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, and especially Bahia in recent weeks.  In Argentina, we continue to forecast heavy rainfall within the northern half of the wettest corn, soybean, and sunflower areas through 10 days

·        Corn: CH down $.0150 @ $3.5575; CK down $.0150 @ $3.6250.  The funds sold 4 K at midweek     

·        SB: SH dn $.0175 @ $10.0975; SK dn $.0150 @ $10.19.  Funds—Sld 2 K SB, 3 K SBM, bot 3 SBO. Board Crush: $.77, $.00; LY, $.53

·        Wheat: WH down $.02 @$4.1675; WK down $.0225 @ $4.30.  The funds were estimated to have sold 4 K yesterday                            

CORN/SORGHUM

·        USDA WASDE at 11:00 am CST: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn 16/17 carryout is 2.378 bbu vs. 2.403 in December

·        USDA Grain Stocks at 11:00 am CST: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. corn stocks is 12.323 bbu vs. 11.238 last year

·        Export Sales to be released at 7:30 am CST.  Trade expects 20-31 for 16/17 corn

·        T-storm Weather: Argentina corn has been #1 wettest by a large margin since 1980 (over Dec. 22 – Jan. 9) with a rainfall surplus of approximately three-times its standard deviation

·        Ethanol grind: 1,049,000 barrels/day for week end Jan. 6—up 0.6% vs. last week and 4.6% higher vs. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        USDA WASDE at 11:00 am CST: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean 16/17 carryout is 473 mbu vs. 480 in December

·        USDA Grain Stocks at 11:00 am CST: Avg. trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. soybean stocks is 2.953 bbu vs. 2.715 last year

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 18-29 mbu for 16/17 soybeans; soymeal, 40-160 K MT; soyoil, 5-30 

·        USDA Winter Wheat Seedings at 11:00 am CST: Avg. guesses; HRW, 25.3 (26.6 in ‘16); SRW, 5.6 (6.0), White, 3.5 (3.5)

·        USDA Grain Stocks report at 11:00 am CST: Avg. guess for Dec. 1 U.S. wheat stocks is 2.056 bbu vs. 1.746 last year

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 9-17 mbu for 16/17 all wheat

·        T-storm Weather: Exceptionally-heavy mid-winter precip of 1.00”-4.00” affects U.S. HRW Plains wheat this weekend

ENERGY

·        Firmer:  CLG17, +$0.62 @ $52.87; EBH, +$0.78; EBH-CLH, $2.24, +$0.20; RBG, +$.0198; NGG, +$0.082; HOG, +$.0182

·        Additional weakness was noted in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago down a penny; New York off 1 ½; Gulf eased ½; Tampa declined 4 ¼; Dallas fell 3 ½; and LA was 6 ½ lower at $1.58 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs were posted further declines on Wednesday: 2015’s, 2016’s and 2017’s were 2 ¾ lower at 71-75

·        The Feb RBOB/Feb ethanol spread surged $.0572 to +0.10090/gallon,  premium RBOB–sharp build in stocks       

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY         ​;                     &nb​sp;                     

·        Choice boxed beef values declined another $3.99 on Wednesday, and have plummeted $14.26 compared to last week

·        February live cattle futures on Wednesday traded to $119.70, highest price sinceMarch 29, but settled $0.40 lower

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained $1.88 on Wed. to $79.90, and is $1.52 higher vs. a week ago

·        CME Lean Hog Index firmed $1.12 to $60.73.  February futures increased $0.55 and are $4.87 above the index   

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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